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The Wait Til Next Week 2/1 Weeklies aka What SSW?


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h5

 

week 1 -ao/+nao/+pna/ neutral epo/ se ridge, trof over plains

week 2 -ao/-epo/+pna/+nao/ trof centered over detroit

week 3 -epo/neutral pna/-ao/+nao, pretty zonal flow, tiny bit of split flow, mean trof over central lakes

week 4 neutral epo/+pna/-ao/+nao/ split flow, mean trof over the east

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probably fits phase 6 or so of mjo well. Week 4 cools down and the following days after week 4 do so too. By cool down, I mean still abv normal but not hugely so like week 3

Should we put a pic of the ssw on the milk carton? Or what they are saying is its not getting down to 30 mb, so the wave breaks not as severely affected?

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Should we put a pic of the ssw on the milk carton? Or what they are saying is its not getting down to 30 mb, so the wave breaks not as severely affected?

I just don't think it's a true ssw, it's a minor one really. The latest euro plots show it not even getting to 10mb right now. You really need a good wave 2 hit and right now it's all wave 1 stuff. The displacement will help get some cold here but I don't think it has the same power as a true split does.

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I wouldn't call it a ssw though, I mean it's a minor one, assuming it stays as forecasted. But yea the mjo is definitely not helping things.

no it really isn't a SSW changes are more suttle from the strat while MJO is strong. MJO driving the bus.
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I wouldn't call it a ssw though, I mean it's a minor one, assuming it stays as forecasted. But yea the mjo is definitely not helping things.

 

Last winter it was cold at times in spite of (WH) warm mjo phases.  Were there more wave 2(s) last winter even without a ssw?

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Last winter it was cold at times in spite of (WH) warm mjo phases.  Were there more wave 2(s) last winter even without a ssw?

Last year I'm pretty sure it was a lot of wave 1 stuff. Wave 2 is what splits the vortex. Wave 1 is more displacement and you get your cold shots. Just think of it like this, wave 2 pinches the vortex. So you can have a wave 2 with the vortex over the pole and it wouldn't really do much. Wave one actually pushes the vortex off the pole. Once its off the pole and in a weakened state then thats when you want a strong wave 2 to come in and destroy it. If we had a strong wave 2 pulse coming right after this wave 1 it probably would split it in a normal year when the pv isn't on roids.

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