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The Patriot-less, Cardinal-Less 1/25 Weeklies


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CFS2

 

Week 1: -2F (tight gradient over our area, warmer north)

Week 2:  0F

Week 3: +2F

Week 4: +5F (what ssw?)

 

dry, normal, normal, dry on the precip.

 

I didnt post the Canadians in the Thu thread, there is no Monday update so here are the Thu(s)
 

Week 1 : normal and dry

Week 2:  normal (surrounded by warm) and dry

Week 3:  normal and normal

Week 4:  leaning warm and wet over parts of our area.

 

 

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Guesses. 

 

Week 1 +4 Warm-up Tuesday then a cool down. Whatever happens/doesn't happen Thursday then a weak clipper and warm-up again by day 7. 

Week 2 +3 Very warm first third of the week likely +5-10 then it goes below normal. Cutters throughout most of week. Perhaps enough lingering cold for transfer to secondary and a little snow before going to rain. Ends with cold shot. 

Week 3 -1 Day 15 of EPS had trough in place with cold start to week. Teleconnections may attempt to balance out MJO influence. Maybe storm chance late this week?

Week 4 +3 Weeklies are biased toward MJO in warm phases and will miss strat warm effects which should be noticed by this point. 

 

Still snow chances around all weeks. 

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week 1 +pna/-ao/+nao/neutral epo

week 2 -epo/-ao/+nao/ neutral or slightly -pna

week 3 +pna/neutral epo/-ao/+nao

week 4 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao

And yet still warmer than normal throughout  :(

 

A few degrees warmer than normal each week. Week 3 is the coolest. 

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Yeah forgot about near normal this week. Week 3 should be cooler based on the 500 mb look. In fact I'm not placing much stock in weeks 3 and 4 tonight.

I imagine a lot of volatility given the SSW (drink tony!) talk for beginning of Feb. (displacement of PV for now, not a final destruction...)

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