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January 22nd-23rd East Coast Winter Storm Model Discussion Part II.


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I was sorta skeptical about this storm for the region around PHL 2 days ago even though the models did show it coming. However, after watching the last several runs of different models, I am now a bel

The NAM comes out with all the urgency of an Andy Reid 4th quarter, come-from-behind drill.

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--11u9p0h8--/c_fit,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/193wxp0ekwqcsgif.webm   ^ like that kind of boss

One thing to keep in mind--it is still going to be windy in western Chesco, Lancaster, etc.  We may not be meeting blizzard criteria, but it is still going to be a snow-blown whiteout.  We'll all be experiencing a lot of the same stuff, with marginal differences.  

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One thing to keep in mind--it is still going to be windy in western Chesco, Lancaster, etc.  We may not be meeting blizzard criteria, but it is still going to be a snow-blown whiteout.  We'll all be experiencing a lot of the same stuff, with marginal differences.  

 

You are right, I dont want to call it semantics, but its not as if the winds outside of the blizzard watch will be light and variable.

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GFS finally wises up. imo I think this is a realistic evolution and the shift of the better dynamics spreading north into our area I was expecting to see. it's just rare to have DC area get mauled without our area being hit hard too.

 

Parallel GFS didnt seem to have as much of an issue, since next season it will be "the" GFS.

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As a result of the warm ocean temp, do you guys think the shore sees a good bit of sleet and/or rain resulting from the strong easterly wind? That's my concern. I'm near KACY.

 

The possibility (sleet) remains. Not confident about model 2m temps, but you are suppose to get slightly above freezing also. There is still a divided camp (more sleet/maybe rain for a while vs inconsequential sleet) I would say southeast of 295 and south of 195 among the models. Its almost a nowcast time unfortunately. 

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