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Private Professional MET Thoughts


chescowx
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Sorry I did not get to see his post earlier today (I am on a cross country trek for work - started my day today with a NYC meeting and will end up in San Diego tonight for a meeting tomorrow then right back to PHL tomorrow late night) JB posted a few pictures of rocky - that indicating he should have thrown in the towel on his east coast thoughts earlier.....but for those of you who like winter weather he says stay tuned as after our warm up next week it will turn "wild" with winter far from done

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JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely not see any big snow storms in the east. 

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I will admit that his pessimistic outlook on the remaining winter is depressing as JB is typically able to drum up a snowstorm for us in July!

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Steve D at NYNJPA weather just updated as he has a low confidence forecast of the 1st storm now moving close enough to impact the I95 corridor with 1-3" PHL area and 2-4" toward shore (maybe more) - with less than an inch back to West Chester and nothing back in my neck of the woods.

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So Eric Horst at MU says on twitter "still a little too early to issue an accumulation forecast but given complex split low set up. But a small to moderate plowable snow seems likely" (this would be for his area of SC PA) this lines up well with JB.

 

JB says he thinks the places of biggest snows this week will be from DC up into SC PA and then up in New England with both PHL and NYC seeing no more than 2" from the event this week....but warns that he believes both PHL and NYC see at least 6" of snow in the Sunday to Tuesday period next week. Points to the 2003 event with a relatively minor low attacking the arctic high.....causing a snowstorm.

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From EPWA

Montgomery: Snow showers after 9pm until 5am. C-1" by 5am, snow picks back up after 9am Tues, ends around 3am Wed. Snow: 3-5", 5-9" Upper Providence- Horsham SE

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JB looking at the big storm early next week sees a primary to the OH valley with a 2nd popping along the GA coast and rolling up the coast possibly just inland with a snow to rain scenario - heavy snow inland. He was calling the storm yesterday since last Friday "Peggy Lee" storm insisting that next week's storm will bring more than yesterday's did for PHL/NYC and BOS. He was spot on with the first one....not a huge hurdle to get at least an inch in Philly....

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JB is mentioning the thermally induced reverse circulation is in play here....says the Euro does not make sense....

Lol...

Love when that happens!!!

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Joe B with a nice write up on his views for the upcoming event.

He maintains this will be a 2 track low (I have not heard a lot of that being stated from the NWS write ups) but he see one up to PIT and the other right up I95. He says this is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big I95 cities the I81 corridor to the crest of the Apps may be in for a major ice storm after 3 to 6" of snow. He says when the Euro finally starts to realize that the temp is not going to 50  in Harrisburg....but is going to 55 in ACY it will adjust the 2nd feature east....so basically the end result will be what he described back on Wednesday. Final message is the process that leads ot heavy snow as far south as VA is going to act as a barrier to warmth surging too far inland - look for a monster mess in the piedmont with this one

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JB just posted on Weatherbell that we are 2 hours into the game and NAM already 1 to 3 degrees to warm around DC

He likes 3 to 6 around DC fading to 1 to 3 in NYC but getting worried the 3 to 6 carries all the way to NYC - With SE winds blowing into the mid atlantic states now the wave is not up there yet....

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Nothing on our site here yet....but suspect we may see a thread by this weekend.... many professional METS already chirping about the next threat next week in the Feb 24-26 timeframe. See WxRisk with a Miller A type and his disgust of GFS seeing nothing yet and JB and Weatherbell all over a big storm idea for next week. JB for one is not saying a big snowstorm but a big storm for that timeframe. Not sure if it goes up the coast or west of the big cities but it is on the radar. Interesting times ahead...

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Nothing on our site here yet....but suspect we may see a thread by this weekend.... many professional METS already chirping about the next threat next week in the Feb 24-26 timeframe. See WxRisk with a Miller A type and his disgust of GFS seeing nothing yet and JB and Weatherbell all over a big storm idea for next week. JB for one is not saying a big snowstorm but a big storm for that timeframe. Not sure if it goes up the coast or west of the big cities but it is on the radar. Interesting times ahead...

No separate threads, but there has been chatter here as well.
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  • 2 weeks later...

JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out

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