chescowx Posted December 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: yea but it was way off on snowfall accum Not at all - it showed only 0.1" of snow on my 11pm run so not much difference between zero and 0.1" LOL!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: Not at all - it showed only 0.1" of snow on my 11pm run so not much difference between zero and 0.1" LOL!! It had begun to trend down with my 18z run - cutting in 1/2 from previous run down to 1.2" and then down to 0.1" on my final run - so not too shabby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: It had begun to trend down with my 18z run - cutting in 1/2 from previous run down to 1.2" and then down to 0.1" on my final run - so not too shabby! you never posted the 0z run, I was just going off the 18z run.. If thats the case, then not bad. Seems like it's better inside 12hrs like the nam lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted December 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: you never posted the 0z run, I was just going off the 18z run.. If thats the case, then not bad. Seems like it's better inside 12hrs like the nam lol yep - if I had shoveled all of the snow the GFS/NAM was showing just 24 hours prior to an event so far this month - I might actually have a snow pile somewhere on my property!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wxsim with 6z NAM/GFS data has 0.67" of rain falling today here in NW Chesco. With the cold FROPA on Wednesday it indicates temperatures will remain below freezing from 10pm tomorrow evening through 10am on Tuesday the 10th. Only snow it currently is a little light snow Thursday into Friday AM with 0.2" of accumulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice job with Wxsim today with 0.75" actual rain fall vs forecast of 0.67" Wxsim with 0z NAM/18z GFS still not impressed with any snow chances - down to 0.1" of snow by Friday morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Edit: I had this backwards on initial post - corrected now Wxsim with 6z data from GFS and NAM for NW Chesco Wave 1 - 1" to 1.5" depending on ratios with 0.9 w.e. Wave 2 - flurries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wxsim with 12Z GFS/NAM combo bumps up snow to the "largest" snow of the season with 1.3" to 2.0" depending on ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wxsim with 18z data bumps up snowfall a little bit more with a total of between 1.5" and 2.3" depending on ratios. Flurries could begin as early as 4pm tomorrow with Light snow by 10pm (temp 29.8) Moderate Snow at 1am (temp 27.5) around 1" of snow so far Light Snow at 4am (temp 26.2) with 1.5" to 2.0" of snow Snow ends by 8am 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM blend for NW Chesco PA No real changes for tonight's "biggest" snow of the season. Some Flurries could be around as early as 4pm with light snow by 9pm or so with the 10pm forecast of 27.7 degrees with 0.2" on the ground (10:1 ratios) 1am Moderate Snow temp 25.7 with 0.9" of snow 330am light snow temp 25.0 with 1.0" snow 7am tapering to flurries temp 24.2 with 1.4" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z NAM/GFS through Wxsim bumps up snow just a little bit with 2" to 3" depending on ratios (I am using simple 10:1 for the below) Flurries by 8pm and light snow by 930pm temp 27.1 1am Mod Snow temp 24.6 with 1.0" on the ground 4am Mod Snow temp 23.6 with 1.7" of snow 7am flurries ending temp 22.7 with 2.0" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 With the 18z suite Wxsim has significantly increased (relative to prior runs) snow amounts here in NW Chesco Here is the rundown (using a ratio from 10:1 to 20:1) Flurries by 8am with Light snow at 9am temp at 19.8 Moderate Snow by 930am temp 20.0 Moderate Snow at 1pm temp down to 18.4 with (0.9" to 1.8") Ends by 230pm temp at 18.1 with between 1.2" to 2.4" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 Good job by Wxsim with today's event...now on to our next winter event. Starting Tuesday late day some light sleet arriving by 330pm temp 29.5. Transitioning over to ZR by 7pm with the temp down to 28.6. Temps then begin to slowly rise - reaching freezing by 330am by which point 0.65" has fallen as frozen. Then another 1.10" of rain during the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 Wxsim likely too cold but.... Tuesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow. High 29. Wind chill ranging from 4 to 19. Wind south-southwest around 6 mph in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then freezing rain likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind south-southwest around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. High 55. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.Precipitation mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chesco with 18z GFS and 0z NAM for next potential "event" Tuesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 29. Wind chill ranging from 5 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 27, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 19 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chesco for our next in a series of winter "events" Flurries most of tomorrow PM with mainly light IP by 630pm with a high tomorrow at 31.4. The light IP with mix with and change to ZR pretty quickly with temps very slowly rising to freezing by 5am on Wednesday...at that time 0.43" has fallen as frozen or freezing. Then rain after that. After this.... our next winter event is on the horizon by Saturday evening with rain transitioning to some Heavy Sleet (heck this could be our biggest snow (sleet) event so far this year) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 WXSIM with 6z GFS/NAM still showing it's cold bias in these situations with a forecast of off and on flurries all day today and then steadier IP/ZR by 630pm this evening with all frozen through 730am tomorrow morning - with 0.46" or precip falling with temps below freezing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Wxsim was close (NOT!!)..... as expected - temps have risen above freezing now 34.3 here in NW Chesco - only 10 hours faster than it had this AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Wxsim with 6z data this AM - for our next winter "event" has a light mix of snow and rain developing by Saturday AM lasting till around 10pm Saturday evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 6z data run in Wxsim for NW Chesco has flurries overnight to light snow during day tomorrow brief period of moderate snow late afternoon ending tomorrow night with 1.3" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2017 Wxsim with 6z data has flurries much of the day with steadier light snow by 4pm - temps topping out at 36.0. Moderate Snow at 630pm (temp 33.6)to a mix of snow/IP by 730pm and then light IP/Snow mix before ending before 11pm. Total precip 0.13" -snow/sleet accumulation of 0.3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has just drizzle and light rain through rush hour tomorrow with only .03" steadier rains move in around noon tomorrow and goes till near noon on Tuesday. Total rain 1.52" with temps remaining in the 30's on Tuesday. Chance of a little wintry precip (flurries) by Friday night....with temps not too far above freezing next weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2017 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has trended significantly colder now has rain this PM transitioning to sleet by 630pm. A mix of sleet and some snow heavy at times overnight with 1.4" of sleet/snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am tomorrow morning. Temps will fall slowly through the day but will remain above freezing till near 4am Tuesday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 12z NAM and 6z GFS blend 0.70" we of snow overnight but only around 4" accumulating with temps hovering just above freezing for much of the "event" - it will change with the next run... Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 26 to 45. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 15 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 35. Wind chill around 27. Wind north-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2017 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco has 3" to 5" of snow but it struggles a bit longer with a heavy mix with all snow by 630am if it is wrong then those numbers could go up a bit Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a mix of rain, snow, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 29. Wind north-northwest around 5 mph in the evening, becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 32, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 26. Wind north-northeast around 12 mph, gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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