chescowx Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wxsim (www.wxsim.com) is a point specific personal forecasting tool that uses a mix of the GFS and NAM models along with a built in advection routine starting with home weather station readings to produce a local - in my backyard forecast My Wxsim program forecast run (for NW Chester County PA) at 2pm on January 16th, 2016 - snow arriving on Friday the 22nd by 7pm with a temp of 34.6 - S+ at 10pm temp 31.1 - S+ at 7am Saturday 23rd with 6.0" of snow so far - S+ at 1pm Saturday with 12.0" of snow Storm ends by 3pm with a storm total of 13.0" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 With the 18z GFS/NAM (sad this program cannot include the king of models - the EURO) so take this with the proverbial grain of salt this far out but.... Snow still arrives by 7pm on Friday the 22nd 3" of snow by midnight and then a change to IP/ZR with another 0.80" then back to snow by early AM and another 11" of snow so a combined 11" to 13" of snow to ice back to snow before ending. Over 2.10" of liquid equivalent This will clearly change significantly over the next few days but just shows the variability of the fab US models on a day to day basis - until the EURO shows something - I will never buy what the US models portray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco for today gets 0.3" of snow into Chesco regarding the Friday potential event it now has snow arriving earlier on Friday AM 10am = S+ Temp 24.4 4pm = S+ 27.0 with 10" of snow so far 8pm = Mod snow with 12" of snow Tapering off in the wee hours of Sat AM with 13" total snow accumulation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does Wxsim have an API that would allow you to feed it euro or other global model data? The output might be more compelling if you could add more distinct data sets from the global models. Even more compelling if you could pick and choose what suites you're feeding it...Breaking it down elementally, it seems to be that if the data were in a format that Wxsim could handle, it could be possible, but I have no insight (and haven't looked) to see if it's extensible at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hi Dryslot Unfortunately it does not have the EURO I have asked the developer if it's possible and there is some reason it is not. Plus he customizes for clients to forecast to one specific site (their backyard or business) with upwind advection routines etc. that cannot be changed. It does have a learning function built in to take the actual weather station data and make adjustments to forecasts going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z Wxsim forecast with NAM/GFS still paints about 1 foot of snow for NW Chesco - a little later start this run with moderate snow by 4pm Friday and all over by 1pm Saturday with about 12" of total snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z data of course ramps this up to HECS levels here is the run down for NW Chester County PA Snow by mid afternoon on Friday 4pm = S+ temp 27.3 10pm - S+ temp 24.2 snow so far 10.5" 1am - S+ temp 24.6 snow = 16.5" 4am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 20.0" 7am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 24.0" 11am - S temp 25.7 snow = 28.0" Light snow most of the rest of the PM ending by evening total snow accumulation 29.0" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z data Wxsim now up to over 31" of snow for NW Chesco....that should be the high mark - expect it will start trending down toward a more realistic number with next couple runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 With 6z runs the Wxsim has snow starting by 1pm on Friday with S+ by 4pm - temps in the mid-20's for the duration of the storm. Total snow by 8am Saturday at 20" total by the time it winds down by 8pm is 28.2" for NW Chesco (10:1 ratio) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wxsim with 12z models now down to a scant 20" of snow for NW Chesco - arrival time now at 4pm Friday with it tapering off late Saturday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z Wxsim for NW Chester County Snow arriving by 10pm Friday temp 29.8 S+ at 4am with 4" snow so far S+ 10am = 12.5 Mod snow 4pm = 21.7" 1am Mod snow = 22.8" Ending by 2am total snow 23.1" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z data brings the snow total down to a little 16" event in NW Chesco (tongue firmly in cheek)....starts by 10pm and over by early Sunday AM....experience shows it will likely end earlier than that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z data for East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chester County Snow arriving Friday evening 9pm 7am S+ 4" so far shows some IP mixing in during the mid morning 1pm S+ 12" 5pm S+ 21" 10pm S 25" 2am ending - total accumulation 27" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z data for NW Chester County PA - not surprisingly has yielded the greatest snow prediction I have ever had with the program going back 7 years Here is the rundown Snow starts at 9pm 7am Saturday S+ 7.5" 1pm S+ = 17" 4pm S+ = 26" 7pm S+ - 31.4" 12mid - S+ 33.6" ending by 1am storm total 34.6" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Awesome... Lol!!! Here's hopin'‼️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 with the NAM in there I am sure it will come back down quite a bit toward reality by tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chesco Snow flurries by 7pm Moderate snow by 10pm temp 28.7 S+ by 1am (2.5" so far) 7am - S+ (9.7") 1pm - S+ (17.0") 5pm S+ (21.3") 10pm S (23.1") Ending by 2am total snow 23.8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonder if that Wxsim will go back up over 30" for you with the 12Z data... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Greg - right you are with the 12z data it now has it starting around 5pm with moderate snow by 7pm and continuing till 1am Sunday morning with 34.4" of snow with 3.16" QPF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving on Monday morning around noon lasting till about 11pm on Tuesday with about 6" of snow falling during that time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2016 6z data for NW Chester County has snow arriving Monday PM continuing till about 5am on Wed morning with 4.5" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2016 With 12z model runs back up to near 8" of snow with snow arriving Monday PM with 4" on the ground by 7am Tuesday and 7" by 7pm Tuesday evening. Wxsim also shows temps struggling to reach the mid 20's Thursday and Friday and temps remaining mainly in the teens next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z models (GFS/NAM) stays pretty consistent with 7.3" of snow for NW Chesco by 2am on Wed morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 06z models look a little too aggressive - still showing 7.2" of snow all light to moderate starting tomorrow evening lasting thru Wed till about midnight. Highest temp is 32.1 during the snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Well of course with 18z data the snow has increased to about 9" of snow with 0.99 liquid - Wxsim shows temps staying in the 20's in NW Chesco all day on Tuesday and even some periods of Heavy Snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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