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2nd half of meteorological winter pattern discussion


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Well going off the EPS right now for the remainder of the month they are forecasting a pretty cold and potentially active pattern. Here are the the eps broken down in increments of 5 days for mean 2m temps for next 15 days. The bigger question is where do we go for February? Do we get into typical Nino climo with a cooler feberuary or does any potential IO forcing play a role? How long will this high latitude blocking last for?Will a SSW come about and throw a cold punch to the region? The euro monthlies for february had a +nao, but a pretty stout +pna ridge. 2m temps were a little above normal. The ggem monthlies showed a very cold February and a cold March as well. Discuss in here pattern thoughts.

 

 

post-1-0-27853500-1452359935.png

post-1-0-43572600-1452359942.png

post-1-0-13195800-1452359948.png

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The NMME ensemble for February is close to normal, cold nasa model and one gfdl version balancing out warmer cfs2, canadian (at least on this site when that model was run).  They all trend warmer in March including NASA which was one of the few models to outlook this January cold.  (Not that it will, but I'd say the chance is definitely there).

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The NMME ensemble for February is close to normal, cold nasa model and one gfdl version balancing out warmer cfs2, canadian (at least on this site when that model was run).  They all trend warmer in March including NASA which was one of the few models to outlook this January cold.  (Not that it will, but I'd say the chance is definitely there).

The canadian on your site was warmer for february?

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I dont know the run time other than they normally update this once a month:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

must be different versions of it obviously. This is what I have from the cansips, not sure if thats the Canadian or not. These maps, at least h5 look pretty darn close to eps parallel for feb

h5 for feb

cansips_z500a_us_1.png

2m temp

cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

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must be different versions of it obviously. This is what I have from the cansips, not sure if thats the Canadian or not. These maps, at least h5 look pretty darn close to eps parallel for feb

h5 for feb

cansips_z500a_us_1.png

2m temp

cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

Could be a different model, initial conditions there they state its 1/1, the nmme idk.

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EPS still look pretty good in 11-15 day period, looks like they have a little better signal for -nao in the day 11 range, but it wanes as one would expect getting further out.  Also, a pretty decent pna ridge starts firing after day 13. The AO region looks to cool off some on eps, looks like it's close to normal or a little positive, but it looks by the end of the run the pv starts to again slide off the pole. Still below normal hgts for us through out run. 

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Hey, thought I'd make a post this evening. I'm home tonight taking care of a sick wife. :/

 

Something always didn't sit right with me about the upcoming 10 days. I clearly see the -NAO, the -AO, the split flow etc. but yet my mind was sort of cautious when it came to the epic cold/snow calls. There are things in the back of my mind that are keeping me from hyping this period more than usual. Obviously the progressive, active Pacific Jet aided by a very strong El Niño would be 1 concern.

 

Strong GWO orbits in higher AAM states happen a lot in El Niño. However, the current orbit is 1 of the strongest I've ever seen. It reflects a gradually increasing AAM state in an already exceptionally high AAM state. El Niño has now perfectly coupled with the atmosphere leading to classic STJ and N PAC circulation. The combination of factors ahead: -AO, -NAO, very strong El Niño and strong GWO orbit has only happened twice in January...1958 and 1983. If you become more loose with NAO/AO, then suddenly 1998 jumps in there. The composite yields a polar to west based NAO ridge. Go figure.

 

Regardless of how the active train of waves transpire over the next 10 days, the pattern will develop into a classic precursor SSW one:

1. Strong NE PAC low

2. Strong anticyclone over Siberia/NAO

3. Shift in mass over East Asia leading to a +MT

 

The third point is likely the direct catalyst for warming in the upper stratosphere at the end of ensembles. The wave 1 configuration in stratospheric heights, on the other hand, is from the first 2 points. Although, it should be noted that the Siberian High is what descends down the eastern slopes, causing the +MT.

 

Initially, this may all favor an increasing AO/NAO and then a likely jet extension in final week of Jan. We could temporarily go back to a more classic Niño pattern across America. However, I think this will all lead to a legit SSW and secondary AO tank next month. A period of exceptional snow potential would be possible as the SSW downwells and MJO possibly comes around again mid Feb.

 

I don't mean to belittle the next 2 weeks; they certainly have potential and I think we'll see snow. I'm just not confident enough in a pattern like this, one where many things are opposing each other, to get cute and say "Kocin Storm coming." :)

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Hey, thought I'd make a post this evening. I'm home tonight taking care of a sick wife. :/

 

Something always didn't sit right with me about the upcoming 10 days. I clearly see the -NAO, the -AO, the split flow etc. but yet my mind was sort of cautious when it came to the epic cold/snow calls. There are things in the back of my mind that are keeping me from hyping this period more than usual. Obviously the progressive, active Pacific Jet aided by a very strong El Niño would be 1 concern.

 

Strong GWO orbits in higher AAM states happen a lot in El Niño. However, the current orbit is 1 of the strongest I've ever seen. It reflects a gradually increasing AAM state in an already exceptionally high AAM state. El Niño has now perfectly coupled with the atmosphere leading to classic STJ and N PAC circulation. The combination of factors ahead: -AO, -NAO, very strong El Niño and strong GWO orbit has only happened twice in January...1958 and 1983. If you become more loose with NAO/AO, then suddenly 1998 jumps in there. The composite yields a polar to west based NAO ridge. Go figure.

 

Regardless of how the active train of waves transpire over the next 10 days, the pattern will develop into a classic precursor SSW one:

1. Strong NE PAC low

2. Strong anticyclone over Siberia/NAO

3. Shift in mass over East Asia leading to a +MT

 

The third point is likely the direct catalyst for warming in the upper stratosphere at the end of ensembles. The wave 1 configuration in stratospheric heights, on the other hand, is from the first 2 points. Although, it should be noted that the Siberian High is what descends down the eastern slopes, causing the +MT.

 

Initially, this may all favor an increasing AO/NAO and then a likely jet extension in final week of Jan. We could temporarily go back to a more classic Niño pattern across America. However, I think this will all lead to a legit SSW and secondary AO tank next month. A period of exceptional snow potential would be possible as the SSW downwells and MJO possibly comes around again mid Feb.

 

I don't mean to belittle the next 2 weeks; they certainly have potential and I think we'll see snow. I'm just not confident enough in a pattern like this, one where many things are opposing each other, to get cute and say "Kocin Storm coming." :)

I agree, to many waves around competing for the same energy can really muck things up. Late Jan Relaxation matches up with the CFS weekly forecast today eventhough that thing has flip-flopped on weeks 3 and 4 like nothing else. Hope your wife feels better soon. 

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I agree, to many waves around competing for the same energy can really muck things up. Late Jan Relaxation matches up with the CFS weekly forecast today eventhough that thing has flip-flopped on weeks 3 and 4 like nothing else. Hope your wife feels better soon. 

 

I find it interesting that both our AO flip and big GWO orbit are happening 2 weeks earlier than most El Niño analogs. What's up with this year! Crazy.

 

Next weekend is of course a function of many things aligning; but, an important factor to watch is the brief but unified western North American ridge. Should this ridge go up and last long enough, the MLK wave will have enough time to amplify. However, you don't want too much of a good thing either...inland runner, which we've seen this year's propensity for them.

 

The unified western ridge seems to be a product of phasing, or at least partially phasing, the vortex over the N. Pole and the GOA low. It gives us a day or two of ridging along West Coast before the Pacific sends another wave at us. The issue is: the more this all wraps up out west, the more likely the 50-50 low zips out too. There is a fine give or take there.

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I find it interesting that both our AO flip and big GWO orbit are happening 2 weeks earlier than most El Niño analogs. What's up with this year! Crazy.

Next weekend is of course a function of many things aligning; but, an important factor to watch is the brief but unified western North American ridge. Should this ridge go up and last long enough, the MLK wave will have enough time to amplify. However, you don't want too much of a good thing either...inland runner, which we've seen this year's propensity for them.

The unified western ridge seems to be a product of phasing, or at least partially phasing, the vortex over the N. Pole and the GOA low. It gives us a day or two of ridging along West Coast before the Pacific sends another wave at us. The issue is: the more this all wraps up out west, the more likely the 50-50 low zips out too. There is a fine give or take there.

Yea I saw the ridge pop on euro, eps didn't seem to enthused and I wonder if it does with all those PAC waves undercutting the jet. That Pv location is probably another big player too. To close and its a buzz saw chewing up s/w. To far away and you gain cutter/warmer scenarios.

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Yea I saw the ridge pop on euro, eps didn't seem to enthused and I wonder if it does with all those PAC waves undercutting the jet. That Pv location is probably another big player too. To close and its a buzz saw chewing up s/w. To far away and you gain cutter/warmer scenarios.

Pretty much sums up the gefs solutions, including one or two that drank the whole pot of coffee. I looked at the uber nino Febs and three of the five were colder than the current normal.

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still really can't complain about the EPS, they still look pretty good h5 wise. They don't look particularly cold, but cold enough easily. They are really starting to build that pac ridge out west and starting to spill it over into the EPO region as well. Still some bagginess at the end of the run for some sort of -nao east base though. 

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still really can't complain about the EPS, they still look pretty good h5 wise. They don't look particularly cold, but cold enough easily. They are really starting to build that pac ridge out west and starting to spill it over into the EPO region as well. Still some bagginess at the end of the run for some sort of -nao east base though.

I just keep on seeing slippage on the cfs2 as to warming, until the 10-15 looks the same as 15-20 for whatever the multiple causes, think we will average near normal/colder than normal. I would guess by this point looking at the fu ecmwf progs, any ssw effects, if one were to occur, are now in Feb or later.
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I just keep on seeing slippage on the cfs2 as to warming, until the 10-15 looks the same as 15-20 for whatever the multiple causes, think we will average near normal/colder than normal. I would guess by this point looking at the fu ecmwf progs, any ssw effects, if one were to occur, are now in Feb or later.

the teleconnections would agree with normal to slightly below esp later on with that epo dip and wpo

post-1-0-25230200-1452449990.png

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Looks like the super El Nino is crushing the great teleconnections earlier this week. As Tony mentioned, it's looking warmer.

I think, not positive, that he means warming like a return to warmer conditions, or a relaxation period that the cfs was showing last week of jan. Tony is going to have to corroborate that though lol

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I think, not positive, that he means warming like a return to warmer conditions, or a relaxation period that the cfs was showing last week of jan. Tony is going to have to corroborate that though lol

 

Yes this.  I think (what do I know) the uber el nino may be making the atmosphere so turbulent, it may be too much for phasing or too many short waves spoiling the broth. Thinking about 2009-10 & 1957-8 which were "weaker" strong el ninos which might have been a Goldilocks combination?

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