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IMO, the defense department sucks up the large majority of our supercomputing resources and NOAA (for good or bad) chooses to allocate its computing resources amongst a variety of programs whose prior

article on euro vs gfs   http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046

I will get all politics for one post, maybe noaa/nws management will finally have a hard time crying poverty and have enough cash on hand to fill one, maybe two (woo-hoo) of the 600 existing vacancies

The odd part is I just don't feel like its smoking everyone with regards to the finer details. Its had its share of odd solutions too. I would have thought the ukmet score would have been closer to the ec. I have been looking at some of the jma maps, even with this next system, its not zomg completely different. That score is not that surprising.

Well are those maps hemispherically speaking? The euro does have it's odd solutions I will give you that. But when things change a lot aloft the euro may go from a storm 100 miles off shore to an i95 runner. When things change on the gfs it goes from an app runner to a non existent sheared out wave that barely brings qpf to the region. It's not like you can toss the gfs, because most of the time the verdict is in between the euro and gfs but more towards the euro. The gfs was right with the last storm in it not being some phased up mega sub 980 low the euro was touting. But the euro had the track nailed down pretty well. 

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Well are those maps hemispherically speaking? The euro does have it's odd solutions I will give you that. But when things change a lot aloft the euro may go from a storm 100 miles off shore to an i95 runner. When things change on the gfs it goes from an app runner to a non existent sheared out wave that barely brings qpf to the region. It's not like you can toss the gfs, because most of the time the verdict is in between the euro and gfs but more towards the euro. The gfs was right with the last storm in it not being some phased up mega sub 980 low the euro was touting. But the euro had the track nailed down pretty well. 

 

They are both Northern Hemispheric evaluations above.

 

I found one for the "PNA" region listed as 180E-320E (is that 40W?) / 20N-75N.  It is slightly better for the GFS, it pulls it out in front of the Canadian & JMA.

 

post-27-0-69906600-1455814591.png

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Looking at some these graphs it appears that the Euro is somehow buffered from the wilder dips the GFS makes. There may be some hedging element in the Euro programming that won't allow it to change as radically as the GFS does unless it has data that totally matches its core programming..

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The odd part is I just don't feel like its smoking everyone with regards to the finer details. Its had its share of odd solutions too. I would have thought the ukmet score would have been closer to the ec. I have been looking at some of the jma maps, even with this next system, its not zomg completely different. That score is not that surprising.

 

I'm not feeling a smoking by the euro in our local storms either. Usually there are one or more east coast storms a winter where the euro is much better than the competition. I don't recall any of those this year. Instead a model blend has generally worked the best.

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I'm not feeling a smoking by the euro in our local storms either. Usually there are one or more east coast storms a winter where the euro is much better than the competition. I don't recall any of those this year. Instead a model blend has generally worked the best.

I agree, its been a winter where consensus has worked the best.

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Looking at some these graphs it appears that the Euro is somehow buffered from the wilder dips the GFS makes. There may be some hedging element in the Euro programming that won't allow it to change as radically as the GFS does unless it has data that totally matches its core programming..

I think its just a better data assimilation scheme. The GFS uses its previous 6hr forecast to modulate its first guess at forecast hour 00, just imagine the swings if it didn't.

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^^^ tombo posted a pretty informative article on this last month (it might be in this thread!). In addition to the differences in data assimilation and resolution, NCEP's supercomputers are not resources dedicated solely to them. The ECMWF has the luxury (and the funding) to dedicate their compute time to MR forecasting...

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^^^ tombo posted a pretty informative article on this last month (it might be in this thread!). In addition to the differences in data assimilation and resolution, NCEP's supercomputers are not resources dedicated solely to them. The ECMWF has the luxury (and the funding) to dedicate their compute time to MR forecasting...

 

Would be great if it were just the GFS and a 48 hr model (can be the NAM or a replacement NAM) without all of the side modeling thrown out there to use up bandwidth.

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