chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Why do we never try to fix the problem that are the US models? Why do the Euro/Canadian seem to sniff things out so much better especially when the pattern is shifting or shifted as we clearly have?....why can't this be corrected? Is this like why there is a Fedex?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Why do we never try to fix the problem that are the US models? Why do the Euro/Canadian seem to sniff things out so much better especially when the pattern is shifting or shifted as we clearly have?....why can't this be corrected? Is this like why there is a Fedex?? IMO, the defense department sucks up the large majority of our supercomputing resources and NOAA (for good or bad) chooses to allocate its computing resources amongst a variety of programs whose priorities are deemed equally high by NOAA. Therefore, our processing capacity is limited in major ways compared to the Europeans. Thank God we have clever mathematically and IT-inclined mets in the US. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Why do we never try to fix the problem that are the US models? Why do the Euro/Canadian seem to sniff things out so much better especially when the pattern is shifting or shifted as we clearly have?....why can't this be corrected? Is this like why there is a Fedex??lol. Canadian model is definitely not better at anything. The main reason is that the ecmwf and to a lesser extent the ukmet (the other better global model) have different missions. All of our supercomputer time isn't spent making the best global model. It's spent getting a pretty good one and then using it to run all kinds of esoteric models for other missions (e.g. all the different NAM runs). The ecmwf supercomputer is pretty comparable to ncep, but it's used exclusively to make their global model better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol. Canadian model is definitely not better at anything. Don't tell JB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hi Lurker Just explain to me how the GFS shows a nice ridge in the east....while the Euro/CAN see something entirely different....want to know who I believe? Why can we not fix this? I am looking forward to what I think will be a storm later next week....that the suppressed (GFS) model shows that "overwhelming cold" that will force a storm off the coast and yet the Euro and GGEM sniff this out and all the weenies will be posting non-stop about some north trend of the models....what the heck does that even mean? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey Ray I will take a Euro//Canadian alliance anytime at all vs the GFS ....do you disagree?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey Ray I will take a Euro//Canadian alliance anytime at all vs the GFS ....do you disagree?? Verification shows the Canadian is generally performing 4th out of the globals right now, behind GFS and UKMET, which are neck and neck. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hi Lurker Just explain to me how the GFS shows a nice ridge in the east....while the Euro/CAN see something entirely different....want to know who I believe? Why can we not fix this? I am looking forward to what I think will be a storm later next week....that the suppressed (GFS) model shows that "overwhelming cold" that will force a storm off the coast and yet the Euro and GGEM sniff this out and all the weenies will be posting non-stop about some north trend of the models....what the heck does that even mean? Well I wouldn't claim any model has the right idea yet because the forecast for each are way out in time still. When you have the gefs in one corner and the euro in the other corner I usually just wait to see which one moves towards each other or do they just meet half way. I'm not going to lie though, I usually lean more towards the EPS, but you just can't discard the GEFS. Just have to see over the coming days. Tony is keeping track on the heights as to which goes where. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey Ray I will take a Euro//Canadian alliance anytime at all vs the GFS ....do you disagree?? Paul, its a perilous route to verify a forecast with a forecast. I am not disagreeing with the tendencies/biases you posted, but its not next week yet. Also off the ewall new 8-10 link its the Canadian that is moving out the trof faster than the gfs. So I am guessing it, the Canadian, re pumps the pna ridge later on while the gefs/gfs well we know just goes zonal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well I wouldn't claim any model has the right idea yet because the forecast for each are way out in time still. When you have the gefs in one corner and the euro in the other corner I usually just wait to see which one moves towards each other or do they just meet half way. I'm not going to lie though, I usually lean more towards the EPS, but you just can't discard the GEFS. Just have to see over the coming days. Tony is keeping track on the heights as to which goes where. I have to post faster.... Yes I am following the GEFS to see how it verifies.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have to post faster.... Yes I am following the GEFS to see how it verifies.... or type faster lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still mighty tough to back GFS after so many years of watching it's struggle during pattern changes....if you find a model that aligns with the Euro.....of course I will exclude the JB loved Brazilian (still not clear where the heck he found that one!) - I will ride that train. I really believe the GFS has clear problems that have never been addressed and unfortunately we place way too much credence in this model. Some of the CFS shifts over the last month...especially that monthly for January are just eye popping.....why do we allow US Models to lag behind their ex-US counterparts? Probably a much bigger question...hence my FedEx question....but food for thought.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Tony....great points as always! Let's see how it shakes out but if I were a betting man.....which I am not - I know which way I would go - but of course they don't pay me to advise on weather - only pharmaceutical products.....so my opinion is well - not as informed as a professional - and I do know my limitations!!! Thanks! Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Tony....great points as always! Let's see how it shakes out but if I were a betting man.....which I am not - I know which way I would go - but of course they don't pay me to advise on weather - only pharmaceutical products.....so my opinion is well - not as informed as a professional - and I do know my limitations!!! Thanks! Paul Paul, I think we'd be putting our money in the same spot. Adam's response was pretty much spot on. I don't want to go down the all politics route, but the discretinary side of spending suffers and given what is going on in the world and the state of the budget in general is likely to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Tony I hope I am as wise as you when I retire..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hi Lurker Just explain to me how the GFS shows a nice ridge in the east....while the Euro/CAN see something entirely different....want to know who I believe? Why can we not fix this? I am looking forward to what I think will be a storm later next week....that the suppressed (GFS) model shows that "overwhelming cold" that will force a storm off the coast and yet the Euro and GGEM sniff this out and all the weenies will be posting non-stop about some north trend of the models....what the heck does that even mean? You obviously have mistaken me for a meteorologist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol. Canadian model is definitely not better at anything. The main reason is that the ecmwf and to a lesser extent the ukmet (the other better global model) have different missions. All of our supercomputer time isn't spent making the best global model. It's spent getting a pretty good one and then using it to run all kinds of esoteric models for other missions (e.g. all the different NAM runs). The ecmwf supercomputer is pretty comparable to ncep, but it's used exclusively to make their global model better. I've argued the idea a couple of times that we could can the HRRR and RAP and fold some of that juice into a better NAM and GFS given hourly NAM output is out there already in the high-res variant. But, yeah, you made the argument. Canadian is not that good...it has its moments (last winter was arguably decent at times) but it's not anywhere near the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Split this thread off from the MR discussion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 IMO, the defense department sucks up the large majority of our supercomputing resources and NOAA (for good or bad) chooses to allocate its computing resources amongst a variety of programs whose priorities are deemed equally high by NOAA. Therefore, our processing capacity is limited in major ways compared to the Europeans. Thank God we have clever mathematically and IT-inclined mets in the US. You may not be a meteorologist, but this is spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 IMO, the defense department sucks up the large majority of our supercomputing resources and NOAA (for good or bad) chooses to allocate its computing resources amongst a variety of programs whose priorities are deemed equally high by NOAA. Therefore, our processing capacity is limited in major ways compared to the Europeans. Thank God we have clever mathematically and IT-inclined mets in the US. agree 100%, you're only paying about $3 in taxes to the Nws a lot of more goes to defense. Not saying that's right or wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 article on euro vs gfs http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 article on euro vs gfs http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046 Well balanced article. Cliff Mass has been highly critical of NCEP models for years, probably being in Washington State he gets more than their fair share of busted modeling forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Speaking of ncep, has anyone else had the problem of late, that their (mag) web site while the gfs is loading is awfully slow??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Would the $900 mil cash payout on powerball be enough to fix the GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Speaking of ncep, has anyone else had the problem of late, that their (mag) web site while the gfs is loading is awfully slow??? I don't use that site. Hands down pivotal weather is the best I have seen. You can do clickable soundings for any spot. You can do that for twisterdata, but that site is slow and the soundings are designated spots already set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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