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News About CFS/Euro Weeklies Spread Sheet


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As an FYI this will be the last spread sheet for the December 2014 thru 2015 season.  I am going to be switching over to a new one for 2016.

 

There were two many extreme weeks to objectively verify the weeks.  Tom has discovered a work around that we will be using in 2016.  The only subjective conclusion that jumped out at me was an inherent week 1 cold bias by both models since July.

 

 

Also the Canadians have started issuing weeklies on Thursday, but as percentages (like NAEFS). Since we lost the Thu CFS I might start using that tab as maybe a pass/fail for their above/below/normal percentages.

 

At any rate, if you have any comments, questions, suggestions on how to improve the sheet, please let me know. For a little while I will carry both sheets in the updated weekly "scoreboard" thread.

 

Thank-you!

 

WEEKLIESs-1.xlsx

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Error of less than 5 degrees on average and a bias of -1.8 for week four is not that terrible by any stretch. It would be interesting to see how these look in comparison to modeling in 2020 and 2025, respectively.

 

Models overall are much better with temperatures than they are with precip.

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Too cold for outdoor activity today so I plotted up the week 4 bias and actual from Tony's sheet. Models generally get the direction right but are too muted i.e., not warm enough when it is warm and not cold enough when it is cold. Errors increase when departures increase.  Don't see much difference between the euro and cfs in performance. Most weeks they are similar and any small advantage only lasts a week or two.

 

post-18-0-02174200-1452028553.png

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Too cold for outdoor activity today so I plotted up the week 4 bias and actual from Tony's sheet. Models generally get the direction right but are too muted i.e., not warm enough when it is warm and not cold enough when it is cold. Errors increase when departures increase.  Don't see much difference between the euro and cfs in performance. Most weeks they are similar and any small advantage only lasts a week or two.

 

attachicon.gifBias_weeklies.png

 

Nice!!!

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As an FYI this will be the last spread sheet for the December 2014 thru 2015 season.  I am going to be switching over to a new one for 2016.

 

There were two many extreme weeks to objectively verify the weeks.  Tom has discovered a work around that we will be using in 2016.  The only subjective conclusion that jumped out at me was an inherent week 1 cold bias by both models since July.

 

 

Also the Canadians have started issuing weeklies on Thursday, but as percentages (like NAEFS). Since we lost the Thu CFS I might start using that tab as maybe a pass/fail for their above/below/normal percentages.

 

At any rate, if you have any comments, questions, suggestions on how to improve the sheet, please let me know. For a little while I will carry both sheets in the updated weekly "scoreboard" thread.

 

Thank-you!

 

attachicon.gifWEEKLIESs-1.xlsx

Where are the Canadian weeklies? 

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Too cold for outdoor activity today so I plotted up the week 4 bias and actual from Tony's sheet. Models generally get the direction right but are too muted i.e., not warm enough when it is warm and not cold enough when it is cold. Errors increase when departures increase.  Don't see much difference between the euro and cfs in performance. Most weeks they are similar and any small advantage only lasts a week or two.

 

attachicon.gifBias_weeklies.png

Great stuff Charley

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Too cold for outdoor activity today so I plotted up the week 4 bias and actual from Tony's sheet. Models generally get the direction right but are too muted i.e., not warm enough when it is warm and not cold enough when it is cold. Errors increase when departures increase. Don't see much difference between the euro and cfs in performance. Most weeks they are similar and any small advantage only lasts a week or two.

Bias_weeklies.png

Awesome job Charlie!

You can see where wavelengths come into play with volatility in the long range. To be expected though. Great stuff.

Tony, I don't think you get enough credit for how much work you put into the weeklies. (You too Tom).

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