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1/4 Weeklies, Diving Into The Deep (Negatives)


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Guesses

Week 1 +2

Week 2 -3

Week 3 +2

Week 4 +4

Snowless into Feb, plus a dusting from the 1/12-13 front. Going to break out the snowless winter records again soon, ugh.

I believe it's only 2 seasons that are complete shutouts through JAN, 1972-73 & 1994-95. By shutout I mean no measurable...

Again we may be praying for a 94-95 scenario at this rate.

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Guesses

 

Week 1 +2

Week 2 -3

Week 3 +2

Week 4 +4

 

Snowless into Feb, plus a dusting from the 1/12-13 front. Going to break out the snowless winter records again soon, ugh. 

Lol if this was a la nina year, I would say go for it. But with the blocky look still, cold coming, plus an active southern jet I think it's a matter of time either in the next 2 weeks or sometime in February when climo and nino climo settle in.

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I believe it's only 2 seasons that are complete shutouts through JAN, 1972-73 & 1994-95. By shutout I mean no measurable...

Again we may be praying for a 94-95 scenario at this rate.

 

I would be surprised if we come out of the middle third of Jan without measurable. The 6-10(s); 8-14(s) keep on holding at 40-50%. Granted most are 2" or less.

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Temp guesses off the Celsius maps

week 1 +1

week 2 0/-1

week 3 0/+1

week 4 +3/+4

precip

week 1 normal

week 2 normal, maybe lsightly below

week 3 normal to slightly above

week 4 abv

not to bad for the first three weeks. Not even worried about week 4 being right or wrong
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The one thing I'm not sure of is are we actually in an MJO event? I mean you look at roundy's plots and they look like we had something till about phase 8 then, it looks more kelvin wave or something else. I don't see any really +olr and the -olr is very weak. Then you look at the 200vp and it looks like we have been in a standing wave the whole time and not an mjo. You can see on the 200 vp map, that a new convective blob starts around the IO jan 10th or so.

post-1-0-07420400-1451958792.png

post-1-0-21079000-1451958802.png

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The one thing I'm not sure of is are we actually in an MJO event? I mean you look at roundy's plots and they look like we had something till about phase 8 then, it looks more kelvin wave or something else. I don't see any really +olr and the -olr is very weak. Then you look at the 200vp and it looks like we have been in a standing wave the whole time and not an mjo. You can see on the 200 vp map, that a new convective blob starts around the IO jan 10th or so.

I was going more on vp which would put us deep in phase 8, maybe even closing on phase 1. From there it only progresses in one direction in one shape or another whether its a force or not. If not, it looks like nino takes over, if it is, it only would corroborate it. Plus if the IO fires up, it should enhance the wpo.

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I was going more on vp which would put us deep in phase 8, maybe even closing on phase 1. From there it only progresses in one direction in one shape or another whether its a force or not. If not, it looks like nino takes over, if it is, it only would corroborate it. Plus if the IO fires up, it should enhance the wpo.

Yea I see what you are saying on the VP that I posted you can see the -olr into phase 8 or so. But it seems like the main background state on the vp above is a standing wave from nov 21st till now and so on.

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Yea I see what you are saying on the VP that I posted you can see the -olr into phase 8 or so. But it seems like the main background state on the vp above is a standing wave from nov 21st till now and so on.

Yes that's why I would defer to Adam & HM on this, just trying to look beyond WH.

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Week 1: 0

Week 2: -2

Week 3: 0

Week 4: +3

 

Precip normal all four weeks.

 

Canada is a blowtorch Week 4, which means unlikely to see any truly cold airmasses Week 5 if that verifies.

 

San Francisco has the wettest 4 week total anomaly I've seen on one of these maps (probably because climo is so dry, but still)

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