Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 CFS2 Week 1....+9F Week 2.....0F Week 3.....0F Week 4....+1F Week 1 wet, 2 and 3 dry, 4 normal. PNA ridge/-AO weeks 2 & 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I wonder if that week 2 comes in warmer on future runs. Looks like a pretty decent warm shot after that cold shot early in that week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Guesses Week 1 +8 edited Week 2 +3 Week 3 -1 Week 4 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I wonder if that week 2 comes in warmer on future runs. Looks like a pretty decent warm shot after that cold shot early in that week. Could it be cold / warm / cold ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 weeks 1 and 2 are just like the EPS, so defer to them for those weeks week 3 -ao/ east base -nao/ -epo/ neutral or slightly +pna. Whole week we have below normal heights over us. Mean trof axis looks to be over detroit area. week 4 starts with -epo/-ao/east base -nao/ slightly pos pna, then goes to pos epo/slightly -ao/+nao/neutral pna. Still undercutting jet with below normal hgts across south. Brings back goa trof towards the end of run which starts bringing pac airmass back in. Still somewhat of a meridonal flow. A couple days past week 4 hgts start to rise again up into alaska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 It never gets to a point with what we just went through, not even close at weekr. The flow is still for the most part outside a couple days is coming from canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 temps guesses week 1 +8/+9 week 2 +1 week 3 -1/0 week 4 +1/+2 precip week 1 abv week 2 below week 3 normal week 4 abv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 temps guesses week 1 +8/+9 week 2 +1 week 3 -1/0 week 4 +1/+2 precip week 1 abv week 2 below week 3 normal week 4 abv Even a degree or two warmer than normal in the heart of winter could improve snow threats. I bet the snow numbers are the best of the season, not saying much though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Even a degree or two warmer than normal in the heart of winter could improve snow threats. I bet the snow numbers are the best of the season, not saying much though. yea the snow numbers are the highest they have been so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Also, I wouldn't take these weeklies at face value. You should just see the complete reversal between thursday's and today's weeklies, complete 180. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Also, I wouldn't take these weeklies at face value. You should just see the complete reversal between thursday's and today's weeklies, complete 180. quite remarkable how all the players shifted wildly in a few days toward winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 quite remarkable how all the players shifted wildly in a few days toward winter. Yea exactly, and you know how models love to rush things. It seemed like week 4 always does that. I remember back in nov it was week 4 looked decent, only to look like poo as it got to week 2. Maybe this time is different who knows. But the point is things are changing and with a split flow it's not the easiest thing for model to get a handle on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Just gotta hope mid january produces, I mean the pattern looks great. As Chris Devito said on twitter, with nino things can change on a dime and pac air is lurking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yea exactly, and you know how models love to rush things. It seemed like week 4 always does that. I remember back in nov it was week 4 looked decent, only to look like poo as it got to week 2. Maybe this time is different who knows. But the point is things are changing and with a split flow it's not the easiest thing for model to get a handle on. While not as cold, last thu/mon weeklies for weeks 3, 4 showed a colder pattern. Hard to maintain double digit anything, so this bump up into week 2, 3 didn't take anything away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Week 1: +8, slightly above normal precip Week 2: +1, slightly below normal precip Week 3: 0 Week 4: +1 Pretty standard Nino pattern Weeks 2-4. Still +NAO the whole time, so I think it would be tough to get a storm >6" here. You'll probably have to rely on setups like today with colder ambient airmasses (which are obviously going to happen in January) to see flakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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