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The 12/28 Weeklies, The End Of The Positives As We Know It


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weeks 1 and 2 are just like the EPS, so defer to them for those weeks

 

week 3 -ao/ east base -nao/ -epo/ neutral or slightly +pna. Whole week we have below normal heights over us. Mean trof axis looks to be over detroit area. 

week 4 starts with -epo/-ao/east base -nao/ slightly pos pna, then goes to   pos epo/slightly -ao/+nao/neutral pna. Still undercutting jet with below normal hgts across south. Brings back goa trof towards the end of run which starts bringing pac airmass back in. Still somewhat of a meridonal flow. A couple days past week 4 hgts start to rise again up into alaska. 

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temps guesses

 

week 1 +8/+9

week 2 +1

week 3 -1/0

week 4 +1/+2

 

precip

 

week 1 abv

week 2 below

week 3 normal

week 4 abv

Even a degree or two warmer than normal in the heart of winter could improve snow threats. I bet the snow numbers are the best of the season, not saying much though.

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quite remarkable how all the players shifted wildly in a few days toward winter.

Yea exactly, and you know how models love to rush things. It seemed like week 4 always does that. I remember back in nov it was week 4 looked decent, only to look like poo as it got to week 2. Maybe this time is different who knows. But the point is things are changing and with a split flow it's not the easiest thing for model to get a handle on.

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Yea exactly, and you know how models love to rush things. It seemed like week 4 always does that. I remember back in nov it was week 4 looked decent, only to look like poo as it got to week 2. Maybe this time is different who knows. But the point is things are changing and with a split flow it's not the easiest thing for model to get a handle on.

While not as cold, last thu/mon weeklies for weeks 3, 4 showed a colder pattern. Hard to maintain double digit anything, so this bump up into week 2, 3 didn't take anything away.

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Week 1: +8, slightly above normal precip

Week 2: +1, slightly below normal precip

Week 3: 0

Week 4: +1

 

Pretty standard Nino pattern Weeks 2-4. Still +NAO the whole time, so I think it would be tough to get a storm >6" here. You'll probably have to rely on setups like today with colder ambient airmasses (which are obviously going to happen in January) to see flakes.

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