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12/21 Weeklies, Only You Can Maintain The Scandinavian Ridge


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CFS2 doesn't maintain this feature (FWIW).  I'm guessing the colder period is shared between end of week 2 and beginning of week 3.  What Mitch said, the greater ridging is not along the Pac coast, but in Canada itself.

 

Week 1: +15F

Week 2: +10F

Week 3: +3F

Week 4: +5F

 

All weeks are wet, week 2 very much so.

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Weekly EC guesses for 12/21 along with a prediction my flight tonight being delayed some. 

 

Week 1: >+9 if there was a selection for >+19 I would think about it  :( . Torch, Torch and more Torch. 

Week 2: >+9 Torch to seasonable 

Week 3: +2 nw flow with less precip ugh. 

Week 4: +4

 

I'm going to say the pattern flip is only temporary  :( . 

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Weekly EC guesses for 12/21 along with a prediction my flight tonight being delayed some. 

 

Week 1: >+9 if there was a selection for >+19 I would think about it  :( . Torch, Torch and more Torch. 

Week 2: >+9 Torch to seasonable 

Week 3: +2 nw flow with less precip ugh. 

Week 4: +4

 

I'm going to say the pattern flip is only temporary  :( . 

 

Yeah this is messing my spreadsheet up that the EC caps it at "only" +/- 9F.

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the weatherbell weeklies don't but it's tough to get a precise number..It's also in Celsius. I can try and give you the closest celsius value

 

CFS2s departures are in Kelvin, so I am already doing that. I am doubling them to F, so week 1 is not really +30, even if it will feel that way.

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I know I am getting ahead of myself with this post, but it will be interesting to see if the euro weeklies sustain the pna ridging or make end of week 2/start of week 3 just a re-load period.

considering strong nino january's aren't that cold or snowy, I would think reload and we wait till later on for a more sustained patter, we shall see

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week 1 is a dumpster fire, which we knew

week 2 starts out dumpster fire like then post middle of week 2 increases pna, trof in the east..+ao/+nao/+epo

week 3 +pna, comes and goes in various forms..mean trof centered around lakes..warm anomalies kind of like cfs western side of hudson bay to western canada. Looks like also some warm hgts across the pole, so maybe somewhat of a -ao in there as well as the pv is over baffin island..so +pna/+epo/+nao/ maybe weak -ao

week 4 pna ridge flattens out a bit, more flow off the pacific. Not a huge warm signal, but not cold. More like seasonable to slightly above. A lot of below normal hgts in the sw with the split flow like pattern. Not really a -pna, looks more like canonical nino, with somewhat of a stj. Outside that +epo/+nao/ maybe neutral ao.

 

no real blow torch look nor cold look. It's pretty seasonable from the end of week 2 on. Though I would definitely bias towards above normal but no furnace...

 

just looking at h5 I would go like this for temps

 

week 1 >+9

week 2 +7

week 3 +4

week 4 +4

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Outcome reads alot like cfs2 and more typical nino configure once we get past week 2.

 

yea pretty much. Still think there is somewhat of a chance in the first week of January mfor something outside of interior. Either it be a clipper or some wave coming out of the south.

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