Mitchg Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Guesses, this time I did more math. Week 1 = >+9 Week 2 = >+9 Week 3 = +7 Week 4 = +4 Not going to go into the gloomy details. We all know this pattern is Grinchtastic. Nothing from strat, MJO, teleconnections to suggest any major changes. CFS weeklies suggest some +12F departures as well, look grinchy through week 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I'm out for a little so weeklies will be delayed till like 8 or so. Unless someone else has access who would give the info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 well week 1 is horrible lol. Week 2 starts off bad but by the end of the run or by jan 4th the ridging thats along the west coasts builds north into gulf of alaska and into nw canada. Chillier pattern but not cold, still some pacific air being involved, but the flow is pretty meridonal. week 3 and week 4 also feature -epo very meridonal flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 it's a colder pattern, but I'm not sure snowier. The heart of the trof is over the center of the country, so you have a little se ridge look on the east coast. To break it down teleconnections wise week 1+ao/+nao/+epo/-pna week 2 -pna to start, gives way +pna, then goes to neutral pna/+ao/+epo to start, ridging in pacific moves north causing -epo/+nao week 3 neutral pna/-epo/+nao/+ao to start, probably goes neutral towards end week 4 -epo, goes more neutral towards weeks end/slightly -ao/+nao/neutral pna you can forget about -nao for awhile, pv parked over northern hudson bay/baffin island Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 temp guesses and other tidbits week 1 >+9 week 2 >+9 week 3 +2-+4 week 4 +2 precip week 1-4 above snowfall best shot week 3 and week 4, snowiest run so far when looking at 32 day total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 temp guesses and other tidbits week 1 >+9 week 2 >+9 week 3 +2-+4 week 4 +2 precip week 1-4 above snowfall best shot week 3 and week 4, snowiest run so far when looking at 32 day total. First time where it sounds like a better week 4 has made it to week 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 First time where it sounds like a better week 4 has made it to week 3. yea it actually starts looking better by end of week 2..I mean thats not hard to do with what we have now. Week 4 is definitely the best I have seen thus far on weeklies. The flow is coming right from canada by then. 850 wise by the 4th of jan they return to normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 We're taking baby steps foward without a huge step back tonight. Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Does the ridge in SE Canada move any? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Does the ridge in SE Canada move any? Looks like end of week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Week 1: >+9, slightly above normal precip Week 2: >+9, slightly above normal precip Week 3: +4 Week 4: +1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 As far as H5 goes, Weeks 3 and 4 look pretty much like a standard Nino with a +NAO. Split flow on the West Coast. The only real difference between Week 2 and Week 3 is the ridge axis shifting into the Atlantic, rather than over SE Canada. That obviously makes a difference, but I don't see a major change in the pattern upcoming, at least not from the Weeklies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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