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12/17 Weeklies- Grinchtastic weeklies yet again.


Mitchg
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Guesses, this time I did more math. 

 

Week 1 = >+9

Week 2 = >+9

Week 3 = +7

Week 4 = +4 

 

Not going to go into the gloomy details. We all know this pattern is Grinchtastic. Nothing from strat, MJO, teleconnections to suggest any major changes. CFS weeklies suggest some +12F departures as well, look grinchy through week 4. 

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well week 1 is horrible lol. 

 

Week 2 starts off bad but by the end of the run or by jan 4th the ridging thats along the west coasts builds north into gulf of alaska and into nw canada. Chillier pattern but not cold, still some pacific air being involved, but the flow is pretty meridonal. 

 

week 3 and week 4 also feature -epo very meridonal flow. 

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it's a colder pattern, but I'm not sure snowier. The heart of the trof is over the center of the country, so you have a little se ridge look on the east coast.

 

To break it down teleconnections wise

 

week 1+ao/+nao/+epo/-pna

week 2 -pna to start, gives way +pna, then goes to neutral pna/+ao/+epo to start, ridging in pacific moves north causing -epo/+nao

week 3 neutral pna/-epo/+nao/+ao to start, probably goes neutral towards end

week 4 -epo, goes more neutral towards weeks end/slightly -ao/+nao/neutral pna

 

you can forget about -nao for awhile, pv parked over northern hudson bay/baffin island

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First time where it sounds like a better week 4 has made it to week 3.

yea it actually starts looking better by end of week 2..I mean thats not hard to do with what we have now. Week 4 is definitely the best I have seen thus far on weeklies. The flow is coming right from canada by then. 850 wise by the 4th of jan they return to normal.

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As far as H5 goes, Weeks 3 and 4 look pretty much like a standard Nino with a +NAO. Split flow on the West Coast. The only real difference between Week 2 and Week 3 is the ridge axis shifting into the Atlantic, rather than over SE Canada. That obviously makes a difference, but I don't see a major change in the pattern upcoming, at least not from the Weeklies.

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