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December 2015 - Warmest December/Meteorological Winter Month Ever For PHL!


Rainshadow
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Thanks to Carl for the corroborated numbers and Mike Ventrice from WSI is looking pretty pretty good with their December call in our backyard.

 

From Carl: 

 

Through 12/13 PHL is 49.8 for the month, warmest DEC on record through 12/13 - 50.7 in 1998

 

Warmest DEC on record (44.5 - 1923) / Warmest meteorological winter month on record is 46.2 set in January 1932.

 

Apologies to everyone, I know you'd prefer other thread topics.

 

 

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I believe that December over the last 15 years or so is 1.5 degrees above the 1981-2010 averages. It seems like it is now an autumn month.

 

While December is up there for warming (on a contiguous U.S. basis), want to venture a guess as to which months have warmed the most and the least since 1895?  I have to go out and will post it later.

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In last night's AFD

 

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA (PHL AIRPORT) THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER (I.E., DECEMBER 1-15) SHOULD FALL WITHIN  
0.2F DEGREE OF 51.0F (THE EXACT NUMBER WILL BE DETERMINED TONIGHT  
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHEN THE CALENDAR DAY LOW TEMPERATURE IS  
EXPECTED TO OCCUR). UNLESS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS BELOW 36F BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT (WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED), 2015 WILL BE THE WARMEST FIRST  
HALF OF DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT PHILADELPHIA IN 1872 (THE  
PREVIOUS WARMEST WAS 50.7F IN 2001). TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF  
THE MONTH (DECEMBER 16-31) WOULD HAVE TO AVERAGE AT LEAST 38.4F  
DEGREES (OR 3.0F ABOVE NORMAL) TO KEEP ON PACE WITH DECEMBER 1923  
(AND 38.6F TO BEAT IT), WHICH WAS THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD  
FOR PHILADELPHIA WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 44.6F.  
 
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS REACHED AT LEAST 60F DEGREES FOR SIX  
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA. WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH  
60F TOMORROW, DECEMBER 16, THIS STREAK OF 60-DEGREE DAYS WILL  
FALL ONE DAY SHORT OF THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE 60-DEGREE DAYS IN  
DECEMBER: SEVEN DAYS IN DECEMBER 1-7, 1998. A PERIOD OF SIX  
CONSECUTIVE 60-DEGREE DAYS IN DECEMBER WAS ALSO RECORDED DECEMBER  
4-9, 1951.  
 
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT ALLENTOWN (ABE AIRPORT) THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF DECEMBER (I.E., DECEMBER 1-15) SHOULD FALL WITHIN 0.2F  
DEGREE OF 45.8F. UNLESS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS BELOW 8F BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT (WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN!), 2015 WILL  
BE THE WARMEST FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT  
ALLENTOWN IN 1922 (THE PREVIOUS WARMEST WAS 44.6F IN 2001).  
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH (DECEMBER 16-31) WOULD  
HAVE TO AVERAGE AT LEAST 32.7F DEGREES (OR 2.6F ABOVE NORMAL) TO  
KEEP ON PACE WITH DECEMBER 2006, WHICH WAS THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON  
RECORD FOR ALLENTOWN WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 39.1F.  
 
BOTH ATLANTIC CITY (ACY AIRPORT) AND WILMINGTON (ILG AIRPORT) WILL  
LIKELY FALL WITHIN ONE DEGREE BELOW THEIR WARMEST FIRST HALF OF  
DECEMBERS ON RECORD (50.3F IN 2001 AT ACY AND 49.6F IN 2001 AT ILG).  
 
OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS (DECEMBER 12-15), A TOTAL OF 26 DAILY  
RECORD HIGHS WERE EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT OUR EIGHT CLIMATE  
SITES. ONE OF THE RECORD HIGHS: 67F ON SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13 AT  
MPO ALSO SET A MONTHLY RECORD FOR THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF  
ANY DAY IN DECEMBER FOR THAT SITE. PHL, ILG, TTN AND GED WERE THE  
ONLY FOUR SITES TO SET DAILY HIGHS ON ALL FOUR DAYS.  

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From the AFD - this month could pass for April.

 

TO TRY TO PUT THE ABOVE INTO PERSPECTIVE...
THERE IS ONLY ONE OTHER OCCURRENCE IN THE PHILADELPHIA RECORD
BOOKS WHERE THE WARMEST MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS MORE THAN ONE
DEGREE HIGHER THAN THE SECOND WARMEST... THE MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE OF 46.2F IN JANUARY 1932 IS 2.9F ABOVE THE SECOND
WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD (1950). BASED ON THE WHAT`S HAPPENED SO
FAR THIS MONTH AND OUR 7-DAY FORECAST, THE MEAN MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE PROJECTED THRU THE 28TH WOULD BE 51.2F. COMPARED TO
OTHER MONTHS (AND ASSUMING THE MONTHLY MEAN DOESN`T CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH), THIS WOULD
RANK DECEMBER 2015 IN THE TOP THREE WARMEST MARCHES ON RECORD, IN
THE TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
THE MONTHLY NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL!

OFFICIAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO
1872.

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^^ & on the cold side Jan 1977 (20.0) is 4.1 degrees colder than the 2nd coldest Jan. So the reverse equivalent to the magnitude of this warmth would be Philly averaging 15 degrees during a winter month. That's 10 degrees colder than this past Feb and the Jan monthly average at Minneapolis to put it into perspective.

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From the AFD - this month could pass for April.

 

TO TRY TO PUT THE ABOVE INTO PERSPECTIVE...

THERE IS ONLY ONE OTHER OCCURRENCE IN THE PHILADELPHIA RECORD

BOOKS WHERE THE WARMEST MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS MORE THAN ONE

DEGREE HIGHER THAN THE SECOND WARMEST... THE MONTHLY MEAN

TEMPERATURE OF 46.2F IN JANUARY 1932 IS 2.9F ABOVE THE SECOND

WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD (1950). BASED ON THE WHAT`S HAPPENED SO

FAR THIS MONTH AND OUR 7-DAY FORECAST, THE MEAN MONTHLY

TEMPERATURE PROJECTED THRU THE 28TH WOULD BE 51.2F. COMPARED TO

OTHER MONTHS (AND ASSUMING THE MONTHLY MEAN DOESN`T CHANGE

SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH), THIS WOULD

RANK DECEMBER 2015 IN THE TOP THREE WARMEST MARCHES ON RECORD, IN

THE TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW

THE MONTHLY NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL!

OFFICIAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO

1872.

 

At least now we know we will have December in April.

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