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12/14 Weeklies, How Can We Sleep When Our Winter Is Burning?


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My guesses Sorry Tom I seriously doubt -'s are present in December. 

 

Week 1 +5 ( Weekend cool shot keeps it from outrageous) all hostile teleconnections, MJO etc. 

Week 2 >+9 MJO moving from 4 into 5 super + AO, -- PNA. Don't let that have the Grinch or Tombo's BFF rule your Christmas. 

Week 3 +5 MJO phase 5 into 6 Teleconnections not as terrible 

Week 4 +2 MJO trying to edge toward phase 7, very slow improvements continue. 

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WEEKS 1-2 YAWN!!!! Just horrible look as we know.

 

week 3 -pna to start/+epo/+ao/+nao. By the beginning of the new year the flow starts to get more meridonal with a splif flow out west. Jet cutting underneath and start of +pna

 

week 4 +ao/+nao/neutral pna/+epo to start, by end of run -epo.  Also looks like some attacks on the pv with some pv elongation. It's pretty much parked over northern hudson bay/baffin island so forget about -nao for a while. I wouldn't say its a cold pattern by end of week 3 but there isn't a wall of below normal hgts out west. The mean trof is over the central lakes. Issue is it's still a little zonal, but getting better. Week 4 is definitely the best. Biggest surprise is the pna going to more neutral or a little positive  and epo week 4. It's definitely a heck of a lot better look than whats going on now. 

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One thing I like and I mentioned it earlier in the med/lr discussion is by the end of week 2 the caspian sea or ural mtn area trof, is getting kicked out being replaced by a ridge. That from what I have looked at in the past tells me colder air comes into canada and also a change in the ridge/trof orientation.

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