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12/7 Weeklies, Wear Sunscreen


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week 1 +nao/+ao/-pna/+epo Congrats Adam

week 2 neutral ao/+nao/+epo/-pna Congrats Adam

week 3 +nao/+epo/-pna/+ao Congrats Adam

week 4 neutral or slightly +pna/+nao/+epo/+ao Congrats Adam

 

Christmas is a blow torch, shorts and little umbrellas in your mixed drinks as you sit outside on the deck opening presents.

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Nothing really has changed which suggests a pattern change.

Strat = price is right losing horn

Teleconnections = price is right losing horn

Mjo = price is right losing horn

I will say the weeklies may miss a quick cooler shot ( normal) on occasion between big time torches ( plus a million) Maybe one of the cooler shots can be centered on 12/25.

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Nothing really has changed which suggests a pattern change.

Strat = price is right losing horn

Teleconnections = price is right losing horn

Mjo = price is right losing horn

I will say the weeklies may miss a quick cooler shot ( normal) on occasion between big time torches ( plus a million) Maybe one of the cooler shots can be centered on 12/25.

My concern with that is. Since the IO is warmer than avg this year and a breading ground for convection. I would give a guess that this current wave never makes it into the cold phases and dies somehwere in phase 6 or so then heads into COD and back into IO. But thats just a guess.

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My concern with that is. Since the IO is warmer than avg this year and a breading ground for convection. I would give a guess that this current wave never makes it into the cold phases and dies somehwere in phase 6 or so then heads into COD and back into IO. But thats just a guess.

True MJOs are less frequent during strong ENSO events... but you're right, models are going to mistake IO convection for MJO genesis, when instead it is a function of the Walker Cell

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