Mitchg Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Prediction sure to go wrong... Week 1 +3 Week 2 greater than +9 Week 3 +3 Week 4 +2 with actually a chance at snow around Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 weeks 1 and 2 we know whats happening already lol. Outside of that it still looks like warmth outduels cold. It's not a blow torch type pattern, but it's not a snowy one. Mean trof is centered out in the plains to western lakes week 3, which gives a little bit of a se ridge. By the end of week it looks like more of a -pna pattern with a more present se ridge. week 4 trof starts out in the west then comes east as the week progresses. Se ridge gives way to a cooler regime. Still not a cold pattern but colder I would say. The death vortex is mainly over siberia but at times wiggles back towards western Alaska. The flow is still pretty zonal, not much of a huge pna spike to send cold south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Might be a cool shot at the start of week 3, but the coolest look is at the end of week 4 and towards the start of the new year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looks like week 3 is wet, with gulf states- east coast wetness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 End of the run the pv is right over baffin island, troff centered more on central lakes. That end look isn't bad at all, problem is it's 4 weeks away lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looks like week 3 is wet, with gulf states- east coast wetness The start of week 3 could have some potential going off the weeklies, but the trof maybe to far west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Temperature breakdown(as in a guess) week 1 +2-+4 week 2 +5-+7 week 3 +2-+4 week 4 +2-+4 precip: week 1->4 above Best shot of snow is week 3 and week 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Week 1: +3, slightly above normal precip Week 2: +6 Week 3: +4, slightly above normal precip Week 4: +4, slightly above normal precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Week 1: +3, slightly above normal precip Week 2: +6 Week 3: +4, slightly above normal precip Week 4: +4, slightly above normal precip errors with prediction if anyone was wondering. I just do this to see if I have a general feel of the pattern and the overall model biases. Week 1 +3 (0) Week 2 greater than +9 (-3) Week 3 +3 (1) Week 4 +2 with actually a chance at snow around Christmas (2) total degrees off =6 bias =0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Week 1: +3, slightly above normal precip Week 2: +6 Week 3: +4, slightly above normal precip Week 4: +4, slightly above normal precip Adam, are the Thanksgiving Day Weeklies gone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Adam, are the Thanksgiving Day Weeklies gone? Yeah, but the ones Tom posted were spot on, so I didn't update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 Yeah, but the ones Tom posted were spot on, so I didn't update Adam, thanks, Tom has a met future if he gets tired of annihilating dandelions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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