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11/30 weeklies


Mitchg
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weeks 1 and 2 we know whats happening already lol. Outside of that it still looks like warmth outduels cold. It's not a blow torch type pattern, but it's not a snowy one. Mean trof is centered out in the plains to western lakes week 3, which gives a little bit of a se ridge. By the end of week it looks like more of a -pna pattern with a more present se ridge. week 4 trof starts out in the west then comes east as the week progresses. Se ridge gives way to a cooler regime. Still not a cold pattern but colder I would say. The death vortex is mainly over siberia but at times wiggles back towards western Alaska. The flow is still pretty zonal, not much of a huge pna spike to send cold south.

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Week 1: +3, slightly above normal precip

Week 2: +6

Week 3: +4, slightly above normal precip

Week 4: +4, slightly above normal precip

errors with prediction if anyone was wondering. I just do this to see if I have a general feel of the pattern and the overall model biases. 

Week 1 +3 (0)

Week 2 greater than +9 (-3)

Week 3 +3 (1)

Week 4 +2 with actually a chance at snow around Christmas (2)

 

total degrees off =6 bias =0

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