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11/16 Weeklies: T-Day taste of winter?


Mitchg
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Prediction ( not actual weeklies): 

 

Week 1: +3 Tuesday's backdoor front knocks this down, Warm ahead of the cold front then more seasonable. 

Week 2: +1 cold dump into west. transitional chill for us. 

Week 3: +1 some shots of chill early, Lower heights into AK again. 

Week 4: +2 December blah. +2 Likely will grow a bit larger as we get closer in time. 

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Prediction ( not actual weeklies): 

 

Week 1: +3 Tuesday's backdoor front knocks this down, Warm ahead of the cold front then more seasonable. 

Week 2: +1 cold dump into west. transitional chill for us. 

Week 3: +1 some shots of chill early, Lower heights into AK again. 

Week 4: +2 December blah. +2 Likely will grow a bit larger as we get closer in time. 

That's pretty reasonable actually to what I think it may show as well, not bad. 

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weeklies don't look to bad

 

week 1 and week 2 is basically what we have been talking about. -epo leads to first cold air dump this weekend into early/middle of next week. Weeklies aren't as warm as the euro ens for the moderation in between cold shots. They don't dig the energy that far west and south like the operational and to a lesser degree the EPS. But the -epo gives way to a +pna, alaska gets below normal heights which sets up week 3. Week 3 is split flow, with a little hint of +pna, +nao, +ao. Alaskan low is out over the Aleutians which probably helps aid in the +pna. Canada is pretty warm (relative to normal) since the goa low is pumping some pacific air across canada.  Week 4 (and a couple days after) the pv starts to move south, by the end of the weeklies it's around baffin island, but it looks like a -ao with positive hgt anomalies over the pole. Start of week 4 still some below normal heights in alaska, but they get flushed out and another bout of a -epo forms which then goes to more of a pretty stout +pna which links up with the + hgts over the pole. pretty solid trof over the east in response to the +pna. 

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weeklies don't look to bad

 

week 1 and week 2 is basically what we have been talking about. -epo leads to first cold air dump this weekend into early/middle of next week. Weeklies aren't as warm as the euro ens for the moderation in between cold shots. They don't dig the energy that far west and south like the operational and to a lesser degree the EPS. But the -epo gives way to a +pna, alaska gets below normal heights which sets up week 3. Week 3 is split flow, with a little hint of +pna, +nao, +ao. Alaskan low is out over the Aleutians which probably helps aid in the +pna. Canada is pretty warm (relative to normal) since the goa low is pumping some pacific air across canada.  Week 4 (and a couple days after) the pv starts to move south, by the end of the weeklies it's around baffin island, but it looks like a -ao with positive hgt anomalies over the pole. Start of week 4 still some below normal heights in alaska, but they get flushed out and another bout of a -epo forms which then goes to more of a pretty stout +pna which links up with the + hgts over the pole. pretty solid trof over the east in response to the +pna.

Week 4 sounds good.

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Prediction ( not actual weeklies): 

 

Week 1: +3 Tuesday's backdoor front knocks this down, Warm ahead of the cold front then more seasonable. 

Week 2: +1 cold dump into west. transitional chill for us. 

Week 3: +1 some shots of chill early, Lower heights into AK again. 

Week 4: +2 December blah. +2 Likely will grow a bit larger as we get closer in time.

Average error of 1F per week, not bad at all.

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