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2015-2016 Winter Outlook


Mitchg
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Tombo, I'll leave it up to you if want to combine people's outlooks into one forum. 

 

I went brutal cold and dry in December then a blowtorch throughout the remainder of the winter. However, plenty of rain, fog and strong winds to prevent golf outings. A lack of blocking will allow for plenty of cutters throughout the season. With the December cold we'll have a few ice storms which will knock out power for Christmas. I'm expecting a few severe weather outbreaks as well when January temperatures reach the upper 70's for highs. Record low snowfall record tied of a trace will occur. Main analogs are 97-98 and 72-73 along with a few strong ninas. 

 

Yours truly, 

Heatmizer  :heat miser:  :heat miser:  :heat miser:

 

 

 

Winter fools! 

 

Luckily for everyone an unofficial outlook I produced is quite different than that of the mizer.  :clap:  :clap:

 

Model output for this winter, it was dreadful last winter with the late cold. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas2.html

 

•Basin wide strong El-Niño in progress that may weaken as winter goes on.
•Still warm pool off west coast, lean –EPO, +PNA. Strong + PDO continues.
•Cold pool off Greenland this summer, lower Pressure in North Pacific  lean –NAO.
•Slightly more advance of Siberian snow in October than usual, October –AO. Lean –AO.
•+ QBO in progress. This decreases chances of blocking and more sustained cold. 
 
Analogs
Strong el-ninos: 1877-78,1888-89,1899-90,1930-31, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98.
•Very positive PDO w/el-Niño: 1940-41, 1976-77, 1986-87, 2002-03, 2014-15.
•QBO positive w/el-Niño: 1957-58,1982-83, 2006-07.
•El-ninos that diminish throughout winter( Moderate or higher):  1972-73,1987-88,1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10.
•November 1982 was only warm November within the strong el-ninos. 
 
Weights 
Strong El-Niño is likely to be the dominant factor this winter (2/3). However the PDO will likely play a role (1/3).
•More weight toward PDO in February as Niño weakens some. 09-10 and 14-15 weighed in as well for February.
•The sample size is very small relating very strong El-Niño's with PDO’s.
•Leans toward – AO, -NAO, +PNA and – EPO would result in colder conditions. The QBO state suggests less threat for sustained cold due to blocking.  
 
Temperatures for PHL Dec +1, Jan +2, Feb -3.5, Mar 0
Precipitation Below, near,near,above
Snowfall Dec 2.8, Jan 2.0, Feb 13.0, Mar 4.1- Season total 21.9.  
 
 
 Disclaimer: This is not a National Weather Service Forecast. These are my own personal thoughts based on lot of general observations at this point. For official National Weather Service forecast information on the winter please refer to the Climate Prediction Center. 
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Tombo, I'll levae it up to you if want to combine people's outlooks into one forum. 

 

I went brutal cold and dry in December then a blowtorch throughout the remainder of the winter. However, plenty of rain, fog and strong winds to prevent golf outings. A lack of blocking will allow for plenty of cutters throughout the season. With the December cold we'll have a few ice storms which will knock out power for Christmas. I'm expecting a few severe weather outbreaks as well when January temperatures reach the upper 70's for highs. Record low snowfall record tied of a trace will occur. Main analogs are 97-98 and 72-73 along with a few strong ninas. 

 

Yours truly, 

Heatmizer  :heat miser:  :heat miser:  :heat miser:

 

 

 

Winter fools! 

 

Luckily for everyone an unofficial outlook I produced is quite different than that of the mizer.  :clap:  :clap:

 

Model output for this winter, it was dreadful last winter with the late cold. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas2.html

 

•Basin wide strong El-Niño in progress that may weaken as winter goes on.
•Still warm pool off west coast, lean –EPO, +PNA. Strong + PDO continues.
•Cold pool off Greenland this summer, lower Pressure in North Pacific  lean –NAO.
•Slightly more advance of Siberian snow in October than usual, October –AO. Lean –AO.
•+ QBO in progress. This decreases chances of blocking and more sustained cold. 
 
Analogs
Strong el-ninos: 1877-78,1888-89,1899-90,1930-31, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98.
•Very positive PDO w/el-Niño: 1940-41, 1976-77, 1986-87, 2002-03, 2014-15.
•QBO positive w/el-Niño: 1957-58,1982-83, 2006-07.
•El-ninos that diminish throughout winter( Moderate or higher):  1972-73,1987-88,1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10.
•November 1982 was only warm November within the strong el-ninos. 
 
Weights 
Strong El-Niño is likely to be the dominant factor this winter (2/3). However the PDO will likely play a role (1/3).
•More weight toward PDO in February as Niño weakens some. 09-10 and 14-15 weighed in as well for February.
•The sample size is very small relating very strong El-Niño's with PDO’s.
•Leans toward – AO, -NAO, +PNA and – EPO would result in colder conditions. The QBO state suggests less threat for sustained cold due to blocking.  
 
Temperatures for PHL Dec +1, Jan +2, Feb -3.5, Mar 0
Precipitation Below, near,near,above
Snowfall Dec 2.8, Jan 2.0, Feb 13.0, Mar 4.1- Season total 21.9.  
 
 
 Disclaimer: This is not a National Weather Service Forecast. These are my own personal thoughts based on lot of general observations at this point. For official National Weather Service forecast information on the winter please refer to the Climate Prediction Center. 

 

Good write up Mitch, pretty much what we have been hearing with backend fun after mid January. Anything beforehand is gravy.

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Good write up Mitch, pretty much what we have been hearing with backend fun after mid January. Anything beforehand is gravy.

I'm sure Adam will like some of the heatmizer has to offer.  ;)

 

Thanks go to Tony as well for some of the background material! 

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I'm sure Adam will like some of the heatmizer has to offer.  ;)

 

Thanks go to Tony as well for some of the background material! 

When I was talking to Tony a couple days ago I said if I had to give a number for phl I would start at 20 and go 5" either side of it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not sure if hobbyist should weigh in here with their IMBY forecast but here is mine for NW Chester County PA - Little late for November but I don't think anyone had any thing other than warm so...

 

Month by Month Temp and Snow with departure from normal vs. local Chester County Averages (1983-2014 - above 660 ft ASL)

 

November at +4.0 Temp with 0" of snow  (-1.2")

December at +2.0 Temp with 4" of snow (-1.0")

January at +1.0 Temp with 8" of snow (-2.8")

February at - 4.0 Temp with 21" of snow (+8.7")

March at - 5.0 Temp with 10" of snow (+5.1")

April at -2.0 Temp with 2" of snow (+0.9")

Forecasted 2015/16 seasonal snow in NW Chester County of 45.0" (+9.4" above normal seasonal snow of 35.6")

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I'll take a shot for phl - I95. Snow could be anything but going for something we haven't had in a while - an average snow year

 

Dec -  +5F,  <1"

Jan  -  +4F,  3"

Feb     +1F,  12"

Mar,     -0F,  5"

 

Total - +3F, 20" at least one 6+" Feb/Mar storm.

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