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First Invest Next Week (June 2)?


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Going to be a lot of moisture associated with monsoon depression in the NW Caribbean next week. Might pop Invest 90L Monday or Tuesday. Not expecting much development at this time, but I'm sure it will get hyped anyway.

Is that what the gfs is showing coming out of the Yucatan area? With the moisture being worked up the coast to relieve the drought impacts in this area? 

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I think the idea is worth looking into but my guess is you're right. On one hand, warm season variability is likely regulated more by CCKW than active/legit MJO events. On the other, KW timescales and beta bounds would, conceptually, have less influence on MDR vs. an MJO wave with slower timescales/less bound. MJO events do inherently have more accumulated PV, conceptually post peak. A monsoon ignition makes sense with KW, too, as they act as walker cell regulators in a sort of monsoonal juggling.

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I think the idea is worth looking into but my guess is you're right. On one hand, warm season variability is likely regulated more by CCKW than active/legit MJO events. On the other, KW timescales and beta bounds would, conceptually, have less influence on MDR vs. an MJO wave with slower timescales/less bound. MJO events do inherently have more accumulated PV, conceptually post peak. A monsoon ignition makes sense with KW, too, as they act as walker cell regulators in a sort of monsoonal juggling.

I'd also argue that the MJO in the Atlantic works as a shear regulator, rather than a CHI regulator (which is why P2-3 is more favorable vs. the West Pac, where P5-6-7 is the most favorable with most favorable CHI overhead, since shear is rarely a problem in the WPAC).

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The what? :)

 

I think that was that flash flood watch day.  BTW is this an el nino mo to have earlier activity (Agnes comes to mind)?  I havent really looked at this that closely nor profess to have any tropical skill, but anecdotally given that the canadian calls 56 out of the last 22 tropical systems, if it doesnt have one, does that mean the gfs is well just being the gfs?

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I'd also argue that the MJO in the Atlantic works as a shear regulator, rather than a CHI regulator (which is why P2-3 is more favorable vs. the West Pac, where P5-6-7 is the most favorable with most favorable CHI overhead, since shear is rarely a problem in the WPAC).

Yes, all true MJO events have full control of low latitude jets and mass/eddy flux. This is why once it is post peak in Atlantic, things get very favorable (ph2). The monsoonal reaction during onset, like a cckw, will induce strong overturning/shear.

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Yes, all true MJO events have full control of low latitude jets and mass/eddy flux. This is why once it is post peak in Atlantic, things get very favorable (ph2). The monsoonal reaction during onset, like a cckw, will induce strong overturning/shear.

With all else being equal (not the case in Nino), the -u h2 wind anomaly will be more pronounced with MJO overhead/exiting.

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Yes, all true MJO events have full control of low latitude jets and mass/eddy flux. This is why once it is post peak in Atlantic, things get very favorable (ph2). The monsoonal reaction during onset, like a cckw, will induce strong overturning/shear.

Good point. I was using imprecise language in my first post. CCKWs are more common, therefore they are more often responsible for Atlantic monsoon cyclogenesis, but the MJO obviously can produce them as well. I was more responding to tombo's post about P2-3 being more favorable, which I don't necessarily think is true for these monsoon systems.

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The euro ens mean from last night along with today's euro wasn't nearly as strong with development, like the gfs at 12z was. They do have an area of disturbed weather, just never organizes it into something.

 

Regardless if a tropical system forms or not, the euro ens mean show a building high pressure south of Bermuda building westward towards the Bahamas. Is this a recipe for whatever tropical moisture there is down there to flow northward up the coast? With the blocking in the atlantic, I can't imagine that high pressure is in any hurry to leave.

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No, everything still seems like my forecast from earlier in the week. We'll definitely have a monsoon depression next week with a big moisture fetch from the Caribbean up the Atlantic Seaboard. Whether something forms in the Bay of Campeche or not is basically irrelevant from a sensible weather perspective.

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