Rainshadow Posted September 18, 2015 Report Share Posted September 18, 2015 Going to be pretty busy between now and end of the month, but as a first look at October significance during moderate or strong nino winters: Looking at moderate and strong el nino(s) in the Eurasian snow cover era (starting in 1967): When Eurasian snow coverage was greater than average during the month of October, four of the six ensuing winters have been snowier than average in Philadelphia. When Eurasian snow coverage was less than average during the month of October, three of the four ensuing winters have been less snowier than average in Philadelphia. The sample size of strong ninos is only three and for above normal Eurasian October snow coverage its one of each. '97-98 had below average snow coverage and below average snow in Philadelphia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 18, 2015 Report Share Posted September 18, 2015 Love this post every year, gets snow on my brain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 Tom, Here is your Newfoundland pool answer, favors a -nao for the winter. The recent results as a predictor have been so-so. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2015 Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 cfs 20 days ago forecast for enso 3.4 first image. second image, current cfs forecast for 3.4 region Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted September 21, 2015 Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 Tom, Here is your Newfoundland pool answer, favors a -nao for the winter. The recent results as a predictor have been so-so. veqz3L44gQ.jpg Yes! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2015 Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 HM on twitter Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago Dear Northeast snow lovers: the early signals are not a checkmate (e.g. 97/98) yet, in terms of a shutout snow season. #hteffect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted September 22, 2015 Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 so just check then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted September 22, 2015 Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 HM on twitter Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago Dear Northeast snow lovers: the early signals are not a checkmate (e.g. 97/98) yet, in terms of a shutout snow season. #hteffect If you read through his posts, and I agree with him, he's really only talking about February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2015 Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 If you read through his posts, and I agree with him, he's really only talking about February. What do you mean? I haven't followed his twitter posts that much. Is he saying february 97-98 is not a done deal or every month besides february is 97/98 like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted September 22, 2015 Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 What do you mean? I haven't followed his twitter posts that much. Is he saying february 97-98 is not a done deal or every month besides february is 97/98 like? Just that the back half of winter is more likely to be snowy than the first half. But based on the QBO and solar states, we could get a significant -AO in the back half that leads to snow chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 23, 2015 Report Share Posted September 23, 2015 Starting to get some nice gains snow wise over siberia. With the h5 look for the next 6-10 days showing below normal heights with the PV around that area, they should continue to add onto it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well it's that time of year to start looking at the SAI, since it's october 1, here we go this years so far is the 2nd image, first image is last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well it's that time of year to start looking at the SAI, since it's october 1, here we go this years so far is the 2nd image, first image is last year Not doing that great now, still Oct 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not doing that great now, still Oct 1st.North America is doing well, but Siberia, eeeeeee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isent a low total on October 1st a good thing SAI? Gives it more room to increase throughout the month. SCE on the other hand, the lower totals hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isent a low total on October 1st a good thing SAI? Gives it more room to increase throughout the month. SCE on the other hand, the lower totals hurt. Yea the SCE is better. I mean not like it panned out last year since it was a raging +ao. But we did have above avg snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2015 Big jump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2015 Report Share Posted October 4, 2015 Big jump. 2015276.png keep it chugging Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter. I havent looked at QBO at all, but thought rising or positive numbers, less blocking? Adam? HM? Too simplistic on my part? Bueller? Bueller? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 When I get a chance later on I'll see if I can dig it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxnut Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter. With no blocking philly south is in trouble this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 I havent looked at QBO at all, but thought rising or positive numbers, less blocking? Adam? HM? Too simplistic on my part? Bueller? Bueller? +QBO/+Solar or -QBO/-Solar are the combos for blocking at a zeroth order approximation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baseball0618 Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 With no blocking philly south is in trouble this winter. There was no blocking last year either so it's not the end all be all for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 +QBO/+Solar or -QBO/-Solar are the combos for blocking at a zeroth order approximation Adam, Thank-you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.