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October Madness, Can Winter Be Far Behind?


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Going to be pretty busy between now and end of the month, but as a first look at October significance during moderate or strong

nino winters:

 

Looking at moderate and strong el nino(s) in the Eurasian snow cover era (starting in 1967): When Eurasian snow coverage was greater than average during the month of October, four of the six ensuing winters have been snowier than average in Philadelphia. When Eurasian snow coverage was less than average during the month of October, three of the four ensuing winters have been less snowier than average in Philadelphia.

 

The sample size of strong ninos is only three and for above normal Eurasian October snow coverage its one of each.  '97-98 had below average snow coverage and below average snow in Philadelphia.

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What do you mean? I haven't followed his twitter posts that much. Is he saying february 97-98 is not a done deal or every  month besides february is 97/98 like?

Just that the back half of winter is more likely to be snowy than the first half. But based on the QBO and solar states, we could get a significant -AO in the back half that leads to snow chances.

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Isent a low total on October 1st a good thing SAI? Gives it more room to increase throughout the month. SCE on the other hand, the lower totals hurt.

Yea the SCE is better. I mean not like it panned out last year since it was a raging +ao. But we did have above avg snow.

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I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter.

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I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter.

 

I havent looked at QBO at all, but thought rising or positive numbers, less blocking?  Adam? HM? Too simplistic on my part? Bueller?  Bueller?

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I posted this last winter, forget what the QBO value was then, but I saw this on twitter. Not sure how accurate this is, but their is a chart out there that takes the October QBO number and relates that to the % chance of a -nao that winter. Right now I it's at +7 and according to the chart it's headed towards a +NAO for the winter.

With no blocking philly south is in trouble this winter.

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