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really don't see a huge cool blast in the next 10 days or so..The upper level flow is straight from the pacific, thanks to the rna pattern/cut off low migrating around from gulf of alaska to pac nw. Hopefully we can get some more rain shots. Euro is still showing some rain next week with that coastal storm off the coast. Regardless it should keep it cool with a flow off the ocean and some showers around.

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really don't see a huge cool blast in the next 10 days or so..The upper level flow is straight from the pacific, thanks to the rna pattern/cut off low migrating around from gulf of alaska to pac nw. Hopefully we can get some more rain shots. Euro is still showing some rain next week with that coastal storm off the coast. Regardless it should keep it cool with a flow off the ocean and some showers around.

Pretty persistent GOA low look by both the GFS & EURO:

567d7b51526ab934c39458e99e9ce6c5.jpg

Let's hope we're not weigh that DJF

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Pretty persistent GOA low look by both the GFS & EURO:

Let's hope we're not weigh that DJF

Yup and you can see how the flow aloft is aimed from the sw to northeast at us. Not really a cool pattern unless you get some funny business like next week with the onshore flow of that low off the coast.

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I wonder if we avoid the widespread warmth most of the nation will be getting over the next week or so. Looks like maybe a weak east base -nao develops or at least a good side sized north atlantic ridge to help keep some trofiness over the east. While not a chilly pattern, it looks like maybe a more seasonable look if this does develop while the center of the country warms as they're less influenced.

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I wonder if we avoid the widespread warmth most of the nation will be getting over the next week or so. Looks like maybe a weak east base -nao develops or at least a good side sized north atlantic ridge to help keep some trofiness over the east. While not a chilly pattern, it looks like maybe a more seasonable look if this does develop while the center of the country warms as they're less influenced.

Pacific is completely unpredictable right now. D9 GFS had a freeze across N PA. 

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GFS just is going to too many extremes, pattern recognition notwithstanding. I wish I had a dollar for every 100 degree day and sub zero low it predicted this year in PHL.

Well yeah, but I was just making the point that the forecast spread after D7 is ridiculous right now

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Well yeah, but I was just making the point that the forecast spread after D7 is ridiculous right now

 

Oh yes I agree. My point was more that even in relatively stable pattern regimes, the latest version of the GFS tends to lean toward more robust (extreme?) solutions than its predecessor did.  Make the regime unstable........

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  • 2 weeks later...

going out on a limb here, but maybe possible first frost shot late next week as a decent +pna ridge fires up that transitions to a -epo. Looks like a pretty good cool shot coming down the pipe in response to that.

maybe some backing from the MJO as well as it looks to be heading towards phase 8

 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

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going out on a limb here, but maybe possible first frost shot late next week as a decent +pna ridge fires up that transitions to a -epo. Looks like a pretty good cool shot coming down the pipe in response to that.

Before that happens looks like there will be some warm days in the monday-thursday period as that GOA low which has been pumping the ridge out west comes west towards the west coast, which flattens out the flow and sends a piece of that warmth this way as the flow goes more zonal.

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From a "climo." standpoint it makes sense that those of us in the far NW burbs would see something by that time. Last year it was Oct 12, then Oct 19-20 where we fell into the 30s. I'm guessing the Pine Barrens region of NJ is in the same boat.

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Pretty potent MJO wave coming into phases 7->1, would you say that is direct result in warm period next week and potential cool shot later next week? Or is that more in response to typhoon recurve?

nvm

 

Hearing rumbles of the MJO- Folks there is no MJO right now. Just pair of CCKWs superimposed on a standing Nino wave

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That mean cool canceled end of next week?

EPS still have it, actually trended colder with it. Got pushed back a little now its the weekend into early the following week. But the 850 anoms are showing -5 to -7 below normal. It looks like it all depends on if we get a brief +pna for a couple days to send some of the cold south. If it trends weaker that cold probably goes more west to east and we miss most of it to the north.

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