tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z euro brushed Erika along eastern Florida coast as strong tropical storm/weak hurricane. It then stall and then slowly curves out to sea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 you can see on the euro why Erika scrapes Florida then slowly heads out to sea. The s/w over new england breaks down the ridge. The gfs and Ggem do not have this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z EPS indiv tracks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 you can see on the euro why Erika scrapes Florida then slowly heads out to sea. The s/w over new england breaks down the ridge. The gfs and Ggem do not have this. well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast. That is one long excursion off the southeast coast, like the previous night's Euro. Now the windshield wiper is slowly going back to the right and/or the rubber band stretched as far as it could. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 12z EPS indiv tracks at WPC today it was mainly a focus on the spaghetti diagrams and how they progressed in days 5 through 7. Generally up the east coast of FL then ever so slowly northward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 this run of the euro, keeps erika as an open wave pretty much and brings it into florida then up into georgia. It then retrogrades back over the atlantic sw towards the bahamas, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 this run of the euro, keeps erika as an open wave pretty much and brings it into florida then up into georgia. It then retrogrades back over the atlantic sw towards the bahamas, Extremely weak/non existent flow aloft leading to many odd looking track solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ggem, takes erika as a hurricane into cape fear, nc, then up to south central va...stalls it a little and then moves northeast off delmarva. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ggem, takes erika as a hurricane into cape fear, nc, then up to south central va...stalls it a little and then moves northeast off delmarva. Dont look at its 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Not surprising the southward re-positioning of the center has resulted in more southward/westward solutions with the ec and ukmet now bringing Erika on the west side of Florida, the rubber band has stretched again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Dont look at its 12z run. Not the best way to kick off Labor Day weekend down the shore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Not surprising the southward re-positioning of the center has resulted in more southward/westward solutions with the ec and ukmet now bringing Erika on the west side of Florida, the rubber band has stretched again. I'm starting to wonder if erika ever gets her act together really much more than just a tropical storm. I mean hispanola is going to put a little dent into it. Best chance it had was recurving along east coast of florida and riding some of that gulf stream juice.The euro basically just has an open wave the whole run, very weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Dont look at its 12z run. Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 euro keeps Erika an open wave once it plows through Hispaniola. It goes between cuba and the keys then into the florida panhandle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2015 Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol Name escapes me, but I think it rhymes with Randi. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 28, 2015 Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol Today's CMC is even weirder with 2 westward loops towards NJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 29, 2015 Report Share Posted August 29, 2015 Today's CMC is even weirder with 2 westward loops towards NJ Great run to run continuity with the 00z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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