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Tropical storm Erika discussion


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you can see on the euro why Erika scrapes Florida then slowly heads out to sea. The s/w over new england breaks down the ridge. The gfs and Ggem do not have this.

well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast.

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well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast.

 

 

That is one long excursion off the southeast coast, like the previous night's Euro.  Now the windshield wiper is slowly going back to the right and/or the rubber band stretched as far as it could.

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Not surprising the southward re-positioning of the center has resulted in more southward/westward solutions with the ec and ukmet now bringing Erika on the west side of Florida,  the rubber band has stretched again.

I'm starting to wonder if erika ever gets her act together really much more than just a tropical storm. I mean hispanola is going to put a little dent into it. Best chance it had was recurving along east coast of florida and riding some of that gulf stream juice.The euro basically just has an open wave the whole run, very weak.

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