AdamPHLWx Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 O yea I know we are. 2 back to back winters of pretty good surplus of snow and cold..We are due for one of those torch winters of the 90s. Getting harder not to use 97-98 as the top analog for the winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Getting harder not to use 97-98 as the top analog for the winter Are you just strictly speaking Enso correlation wise or general h5 setup around the globe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Are you just strictly speaking Enso correlation wise or general h5 setup around the globe? The former, but I mean, ENSO of that magnitude has a pretty strong correlation to the H5 setup too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baseball0618 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 The former, but I mean, ENSO of that magnitude has a pretty strong correlation to the H5 setup too 97/98 philly had like .7 total snow. Warm winter The positive side of a warm snow-less winter is golfing opportunities through the entire year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Since Adam was so nice and brought up the 97/98 analog heading into winter I thought why not start a prelim winter discussion thread till Tony Puts out his what to look for things for October. Post in here past winter stuff like pictures and what not, or talk about early conditions heading into the fall/winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 The positive side of a warm snow-less winter is golfing opportunities through the entire year!I'm not entirely sure it strong nino= warm winter if you're solely going off enso. In fact if you look at this on the Mt Holly winter page, strong nino's are the 2nd snowiest and 2nd with the most 6" snow events.http://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx Here is the h5 map off that winter. As you can see split flow, the nao and the AO were not favorable, limited high latitude blocking. Now I'm not sure if that winter was an exception or thats the rule during strong ninos. I always think ninos as being better for high latitude blocking with an enhanced stj and you get your blockbusters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Depends if this is a "strong" Nino or "ridciulously, amazing, super strong" Nino. If the latter, we only really have 82-83 and 97-98 to use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Also matters if this turns out to be basin wide or east based like 97-98 was. Philly received 0.8" of snow and had an average winter temp of 40.36 degrees in 97-98.. So although I'm not expecting a banter season, I cant imagine it will be absolutely horrible like 97-98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Depends if this is a "strong" Nino or "ridciulously, amazing, super strong" Nino. If the latter, we only really have 82-83 and 97-98 to use. 82/83 was above normal snowfall with a pretty blockbuster February of 25". Typical of ninos though with back end snowfall. Though a 6-10" snowfall did occur in mid December too. In general, it was warmer than normal. When you have super ninos does it get to a point where STJ is just to strong in general and predominately floods the country in warmth? Or can high latitude blocking play a roll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Also matters if this turns out to be basin wide or east based like 97-98 was. Philly received 0.8" of snow and had an average winter temp of 40.36 degrees in 97-98.. So although I'm not expecting a banter season, I cant imagine it will be absolutely horrible like 97-98. Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 82/83 was above normal snowfall with a pretty blockbuster February of 25". Typical of ninos though with back end snowfall. Though a 6-10" snowfall did occur in mid December too. In general, it was warmer than normal. When you have super ninos does it get to a point where STJ is just to strong in general and predominately floods the country in warmth? Or can high latitude blocking play a roll? Both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted July 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless? It seems pretty unlikely with the PDO attm to expect a "west based" Nino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 It seems pretty unlikely with the PDO attm to expect a "west based" Nino I'm assuming it's still a +pdo? If so, is that displacing cooler sea temps in the west based area? Or is from upwelling of tropical activity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 oooy vey at this.. thats gotta be stronger than 97/98? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 oooy vey at this.. thats gotta be stronger than 97/98? the cfs has cried wolf this loudly the last few years with a Nino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 the cfs has cried wolf this loudly the last few years with a Nino. Yea I remember it went nuts for last winter as well. Be nice to get a peak in late september/early october then have it fall between 1.5-2 with a west based warmth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 8, 2015 Report Share Posted July 8, 2015 Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless? west based ninos are very different, 09-10 for example. Right now the japense and cfs models don't have it though. The models look typical Nino though likely overdone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 Depends if this is a "strong" Nino or "ridciulously, amazing, super strong" Nino. If the latter, we only really have 82-83 and 97-98 to use. Yes. Its been the "weak" strong winters of 1957-58 & 2009-10, might have been more west based too. This is unreal: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 Only a 40 inch difference in the total snowfall from 82/83 to 97/98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 More on west/east based ninos. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 Since I'm back east now... well, we know it won't be snowing much in DC, at least 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 Here's 1982/1983 h5 map. Split flow, but +pna this go around which helped to bring some cold shots down into the region and allow for a couple big snow storms. Outside of that, +nao/+ao dominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 not sure what the cfsv2 pdf corrected is, but I saw this on twitter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 not sure what the cfsv2 pdf corrected is, but I saw this on twitter it is suppose to take the model bias into account (it does run too hot and cold with nino/nina), so this does make more sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 9, 2015 Report Share Posted July 9, 2015 If a stronger than 1997 El Nino happens this winter , you can forget about the record drought in California. Floods will be prevelent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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