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Prelim Winter 2015/16 Disc.


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Since Adam was so nice and brought up the 97/98 analog heading into winter I thought why not start a prelim winter discussion thread till Tony Puts out his what to look for things for October. Post in here past winter stuff like pictures and what not, or talk about early conditions heading into the fall/winter.

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The positive side of a warm snow-less winter is golfing opportunities through the entire year!

I'm not entirely sure it strong nino= warm winter if you're solely going off enso. In fact if you look at this on the Mt Holly winter page, strong nino's are the 2nd snowiest and 2nd with the most 6" snow events.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx

Here is the h5 map off that winter. As you can see split flow, the nao and the AO were not favorable, limited high latitude blocking. Now I'm not sure if that winter was an exception or thats the rule during strong ninos. I always think ninos as being better for high latitude blocking with an enhanced stj and you get your blockbusters.

post-1-0-89748500-1436363660.gif

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Depends if this is a "strong" Nino or "ridciulously, amazing, super strong" Nino. If the latter, we only really have 82-83 and 97-98 to use. 

82/83 was above normal snowfall with a pretty blockbuster February of 25". Typical of ninos though with back end snowfall. Though a 6-10" snowfall did occur in mid December too. In general, it was warmer than normal. When you have super ninos does it get to a point where STJ is just to strong in general and predominately floods the country in warmth? Or can high latitude blocking play a roll?

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Also matters if this turns out to be basin wide or east based like 97-98 was. Philly received 0.8" of snow and had an average winter temp of 40.36 degrees in 97-98.. So although I'm not expecting a banter season, I cant imagine it will be absolutely horrible like 97-98.

Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless?

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82/83 was above normal snowfall with a pretty blockbuster February of 25". Typical of ninos though with back end snowfall. Though a 6-10" snowfall did occur in mid December too. In general, it was warmer than normal. When you have super ninos does it get to a point where STJ is just to strong in general and predominately floods the country in warmth? Or can high latitude blocking play a roll?

Both

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Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless?

It seems pretty unlikely with the PDO attm to expect a "west based" Nino

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the cfs has cried wolf this loudly the last few years with a Nino.

Yea I remember it went nuts for last winter as well. Be nice to get a peak in late september/early october then have it fall between 1.5-2 with a west based warmth

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Yea which was kind of my question to Adam as well. Say if we get a west based nino, does the uber nino status with intense stj just dominate everything and flood the country with warmth regardless?

west based ninos are very different, 09-10 for example. Right now the japense and cfs models don't have it though. The models look typical Nino though likely overdone.
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Depends if this is a "strong" Nino or "ridciulously, amazing, super strong" Nino. If the latter, we only really have 82-83 and 97-98 to use. 

 

Yes. Its been the "weak" strong winters of 1957-58 & 2009-10, might have been more west based too.  This is unreal:

 

post-27-0-36485200-1436406353.gif

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