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Enhanced risk day 6/23


irishbri74
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Looks like the motion is more E than SE so this may in fact come my way and not slide to the west as I originally thought. There are going to be flooding concerns though if the storms train like that. Not going to be much of a shelf cloud view for me given the orientation and direction of approach; wonder how it looks to folks that are south of it? post-142-143509229733_thumb.jpg

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So far, a lot of pulsing of stronger cores, but the lack of longevity of any one core, combined with the environmental caveats already mentioned, seems to be keeping the hail threat relatively low.  Just a few scattered reports with the line, and only one severe-criteria.

 

There's also pretty much no mid-level rotation, which certainly isn't helping either.  

 

Mid-level lapse rates don't change appreciably from central PA to here.  Of course, now if you look at Mesoanalysis, they're lower out in central PA, but only because the storms have modified their environment (upward moisture transport will decrease lapse rates).  When they moved in, per Mesoanalysis, they were even a bit steeper, AOA 7.5 C/km, then they're progged to be over us right now, about 7 C/km.

 

tl;dr, scattered sub-severe hail, isolated severe hail, but wind is definitely main threat

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Lancaster cell looks healthy

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA454 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  EASTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...  LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 600 PM EDT* AT 454 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60  MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNTVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35  MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  AKRON...COLUMBIA...DALLASTOWN...EAST PETERSBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...  EPHRATA...LANCASTER...LITITZ...MANHEIM...MILLERSVILLE...MOUNT  JOY...NEW HOLLAND...RED LION...SPRY...WILLOW STREET...YORK...  BAINBRIDGE...BAREVILLE...BROGUE AND CHURCHTOWN.THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE FROM MILE MARKERS 291 TO 295. INTERSTATE 83 FROM MILE MARKERS 3 TO 26.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
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