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6/8 weeklies, halfway till christmas


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Week 1: +4

Week 2: +2

Week 3: +1

Week 4: +1

 

Normal precip all weeks.

 

They really have not been that good.  Both of them.  The +4 probably will be +12

I actually think they've done a good job getting the background state correct. In years past, they would look for any reason to break down the base state, especially the CFS. Now, it looks like they have the opposite problem. They don't get the transient features until it's too late.

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Week 1: +4

Week 2: +2

Week 3: +1

Week 4: +1

 

Normal precip all weeks.

 

I actually think they've done a good job getting the background state correct. In years past, they would look for any reason to break down the base state, especially the CFS. Now, it looks like they have the opposite problem. They don't get the transient features until it's too late.

 

I guess in reality that would be tough to do going out a month in advance.  Maybe because last summer we were closer to normal vs extreme weeks it masked that deficiency.

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