Rainshadow Posted May 22, 2015 Report Share Posted May 22, 2015 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 22, 2015 Report Share Posted May 22, 2015 thats not good, looks like I will be living at the golf course this summer watering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted May 22, 2015 Report Share Posted May 22, 2015 thats not good, looks like I will be living at the golf course this summer watering Until the water bans start then you will only be living there odd or even days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted May 22, 2015 Report Share Posted May 22, 2015 Ugh. NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png Dislike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2015 All three analogs were wet. Time to buy irrigation equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2015 Report Share Posted May 25, 2015 All three analogs were wet. Time to buy irrigation equipment. :lol: Hope you're right. My being around may force "Elko-style" dry weather, just as my departure from Elko has unleashed a deluge (so far, May is the wettest calendar month in Elko since 1983). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 26, 2015 Report Share Posted May 26, 2015 All three analogs were wet. Time to buy irrigation equipment. the euro has had like 3 or 4 consecutive runs showing 2-4" of rain in the next ten days over the region, so we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 27, 2015 Report Share Posted May 27, 2015 Impressive warming over ENSO regions 1-2 since March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2015 1.5 is the summer record. In the CPC 3.4 era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/phi/analogssummer2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted May 29, 2015 Report Share Posted May 29, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/phi/analogssummer2015 Thanks Tony Currently tied for 2nd warmest May & based on forecast for the remainder of the month should finish 2nd alone at 69.7 - 69.8. 1991 brings back some warm memories, literally. Warmest May on record: 70.8 - 1991 69.2 - 2004 68.6 - 1880 68.2 - 2012 68.1 - 1887 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2015 Thanks Tony Currently tied for 2nd warmest May & based on forecast for the remainder of the month should finish 2nd alone at 69.7 - 69.8. 1991 brings back some warm memories, literally. Warmest May on record: 70.8 - 1991 69.2 - 2004 68.6 - 1880 68.2 - 2012 68.1 - 1887 Carl, That's a feat without any 90 degree highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted June 1, 2015 Report Share Posted June 1, 2015 Carl, That's a feat without any 90 degree highs. Figures the day the that originally looked to be the coolest during the past week ended up the warmest at 92. Easily #2 May at 70.1 degrees. While this past May can't touch the the 90 degree onslaught from 1991 PHL did record (21) 80 or > days compared to (18) in 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2015 Figures the day the that originally looked to be the coolest during the past week ended up the warmest at 92. Easily #2 May at 70.1 degrees. While this past May can't touch the the 90 degree onslaught from 1991 PHL did record (21) 80 or > days compared to (18) in 1991. Too bad about the 90, it would have be cool irony. I think I still have the gfs mex mos guidance for Sunday from Memorial, I'd venture about a 15 degree error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherOrNot Posted June 1, 2015 Report Share Posted June 1, 2015 So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal. Neither shows cool or wet. Yet the anlog years are warm and wet? Am I getting that part right? That's three pretty divergent approaches. Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2015 So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal. Neither shows cool or wet. Yet the anlog years are warm and wet? Am I getting that part right? That's three pretty divergent approaches. Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?) Its actually slightly below normal and wet. Surprised 1977 was not hotter in Philly. Well for June 1st, its a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2015 So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal. Neither shows cool or wet. Yet the anlog years are warm and wet? Am I getting that part right? That's three pretty divergent approaches. Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?) June 2nd is not going to be that bad either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherOrNot Posted June 2, 2015 Report Share Posted June 2, 2015 June 2nd is not going to be that bad either. If it hit forecast it wouldh ave been not bad. But what we got - 57 for a brief high feels more Smarchy than Juneish I love Smarch, but this wreaks havoc with grilling dinner... So, overall, you're going for the normal cool/wet Nino prediction despite the NA models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2015 If it hit forecast it wouldh ave been not bad. But what we got - 57 for a brief high feels more Smarchy than Juneish I love Smarch, but this wreaks havoc with grilling dinner... So, overall, you're going for the normal cool/wet Nino prediction despite the NA models? I just go with what a warm apr/may in phl and an el nino in progress has produced in the past. I honestly dont know how well those models are verifying. They have verification on the web site, but there is not much staticness any more, makes it tough for an apple to apple comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherOrNot Posted June 3, 2015 Report Share Posted June 3, 2015 Hmm. A warm apr/may - I thought warm apr/cool may + nino was cool/wet. Warm apr/warm may I thought trended warm (ignoring the nino part though.) I don't understand model trends enough to take them into account so much, but it does seem like it's a pretty confusing prediction. Apr was only slightly warm (really pretty spot on average) - May was super warm. But this first week in June, doesn't fit that pattern at all. Heck, it doesn't really fit a nino pattern either, it's just odd randomness thrown in Are we down to the Brian's weather rock for the seasonal forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 If you want to call it a correlation, summers mimick April's temps and May is a contrarian month. Neither work as well historically as Oct and Nov, not that they worked well the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherOrNot Posted June 4, 2015 Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 So, coin toss? Thanks for the info on Apr/May. I'd heard that less definitively once before, probably from you. Wouldn't be so bad if it mimicked April - it was a fairly avg April. (+/-2 is really a clean bumper zone for avg.) Nothing strong either way. My "gut feeling" though says it won't be avg, but I'm still 50/50 torn on which way it goes. It's both reassuring and depressing - I've always tried to figure out seasonal predictions using correlcations to other years and prior seasons. After years of being wrong I'd determined that must be stupid and naieve and I should find out how it's really done. And then I find out I was doing it right all along Yeah, I'm mistrustful of Oct/Nov now as indicators. They keep lying to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 4, 2015 Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 as long as we have moisture I'm fine, it's summer its going to be warm and humid around here majority of the time. But dry, is no fun for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2015 So, coin toss? Thanks for the info on Apr/May. I'd heard that less definitively once before, probably from you. Wouldn't be so bad if it mimicked April - it was a fairly avg April. (+/-2 is really a clean bumper zone for avg.) Nothing strong either way. My "gut feeling" though says it won't be avg, but I'm still 50/50 torn on which way it goes. It's both reassuring and depressing - I've always tried to figure out seasonal predictions using correlcations to other years and prior seasons. After years of being wrong I'd determined that must be stupid and naieve and I should find out how it's really done. And then I find out I was doing it right all along Yeah, I'm mistrustful of Oct/Nov now as indicators. They keep lying to me. CPC does have "equal chances". so they didnt buy off on the nmme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherOrNot Posted June 9, 2015 Report Share Posted June 9, 2015 as long as we have moisture I'm fine, it's summer its going to be warm and humid around here majority of the time. But dry, is no fun for me LOL, I can imagine! How bad does it get out there on drought years? I'd think the sprinklers would keep things mostly in check? The weird pair was '09 and '10. 10 was as brutal to summer as the past two winters have been for winter - 5 days near 100 - a two day "cool down" to 88- then back to 100. '09 was cold (but IIRC crazy humid starting the second half of july.) CPC does have "equal chances". so they didnt buy off on the nmme. CPC always has EC around here I've always wondered if you keep refreshing the CPC page does it just generate new random results each time? Going by the weeklies so far, though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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