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Summer Discussion, Where the 90s (not the decade) are pretty ugly. Analogs Post 10, Page 1


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All three analogs were wet. Time to buy irrigation

equipment.

:lol:

 

Hope you're right.  My being around may force "Elko-style" dry weather, just as my departure from Elko has unleashed a deluge (so far, May is the wettest calendar month in Elko since 1983).

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Thanks Tony

Currently tied for 2nd warmest May & based on forecast for the remainder of the month should finish 2nd alone at 69.7 - 69.8. 1991 brings back some warm memories, literally.

Warmest May on record:

70.8 - 1991

69.2 - 2004

68.6 - 1880

68.2 - 2012

68.1 - 1887

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Thanks Tony

Currently tied for 2nd warmest May & based on forecast for the remainder of the month should finish 2nd alone at 69.7 - 69.8. 1991 brings back some warm memories, literally.

Warmest May on record:

70.8 - 1991

69.2 - 2004

68.6 - 1880

68.2 - 2012

68.1 - 1887

 

Carl,

 

That's a feat without any 90 degree highs.

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Carl,

That's a feat without any 90 degree highs.

Figures the day the that originally looked to be the coolest during the past week ended up the warmest at 92. Easily #2 May at 70.1 degrees. While this past May can't touch the the 90 degree onslaught from 1991 PHL did record (21) 80 or > days compared to (18) in 1991.
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Figures the day the that originally looked to be the coolest during the past week ended up the warmest at 92. Easily #2 May at 70.1 degrees. While this past May can't touch the the 90 degree onslaught from 1991 PHL did record (21) 80 or > days compared to (18) in 1991.

 

Too bad about the 90, it would have be cool irony.  I think I still have the gfs mex mos guidance for Sunday from Memorial, I'd venture about a 15 degree error. 

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So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal.   Neither shows cool or wet.  Yet the anlog years are warm and wet?  Am I getting that part right?   That's three pretty divergent approaches.

 

Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?)

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So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal.   Neither shows cool or wet.  Yet the anlog years are warm and wet?  Am I getting that part right?   That's three pretty divergent approaches.

 

Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?)

 

Its actually slightly below normal and wet. Surprised 1977 was not hotter in Philly. Well for June 1st, its a good start.

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So based on the writeup, the NA models show warm/dry and the global models show normal/normal.   Neither shows cool or wet.  Yet the anlog years are warm and wet?  Am I getting that part right?   That's three pretty divergent approaches.

 

Is there any indicator that leands toward one set of models or the other (and what to make of the fact that both conflict with the anlalogs?)

 

June 2nd is not going to be that bad either.  ;)

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June 2nd is not going to be that bad either.  ;)

 

If it hit forecast it wouldh ave been not bad.  But what we got - 57 for a brief high feels more Smarchy than Juneish :)   I love Smarch, but this wreaks havoc with grilling dinner... :angry:

 

So, overall, you're going for the normal cool/wet Nino prediction despite the NA models?

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If it hit forecast it wouldh ave been not bad.  But what we got - 57 for a brief high feels more Smarchy than Juneish :)   I love Smarch, but this wreaks havoc with grilling dinner... :angry:

 

So, overall, you're going for the normal cool/wet Nino prediction despite the NA models?

 

I just go with what a warm apr/may in phl and an el nino in progress has produced in the past.  I honestly dont know how well those models are verifying.  They have verification on the web site, but there is not much staticness any more, makes it tough for an apple to apple comparison.

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Hmm.  A warm apr/may - I thought warm apr/cool may + nino was cool/wet.  Warm apr/warm may I thought trended warm (ignoring the nino part though.)

 

I don't understand model trends enough to take them into account so much, but it does seem like it's a pretty confusing prediction.  Apr was only slightly warm (really pretty spot on average) - May was super warm. But this first week in June, doesn't fit that pattern at all. Heck, it doesn't really fit a nino pattern either, it's just odd randomness thrown in :) 

 

Are we down to the Brian's weather rock for the seasonal forecast? ^_^

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So, coin toss? 

 

Thanks for the info on Apr/May.  I'd heard that less definitively once before, probably from you.  Wouldn't be so bad if it mimicked April - it was a fairly avg April.  (+/-2 is really a clean bumper zone for avg.)  Nothing strong either way. 

 

My "gut feeling" though says it won't be avg, but I'm still 50/50 torn on which way it goes.  It's both reassuring and depressing - I've always tried to figure out seasonal predictions using correlcations to other years and prior seasons.  After years of being wrong I'd determined that must be stupid and naieve and I should find out how it's really done.  And then I find out I was doing it right all along :o 

 

Yeah, I'm mistrustful of Oct/Nov now as indicators.  They keep lying to me.

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So, coin toss? 

 

Thanks for the info on Apr/May.  I'd heard that less definitively once before, probably from you.  Wouldn't be so bad if it mimicked April - it was a fairly avg April.  (+/-2 is really a clean bumper zone for avg.)  Nothing strong either way. 

 

My "gut feeling" though says it won't be avg, but I'm still 50/50 torn on which way it goes.  It's both reassuring and depressing - I've always tried to figure out seasonal predictions using correlcations to other years and prior seasons.  After years of being wrong I'd determined that must be stupid and naieve and I should find out how it's really done.  And then I find out I was doing it right all along :o

 

Yeah, I'm mistrustful of Oct/Nov now as indicators.  They keep lying to me.

 

CPC does have "equal chances". so they didnt buy off on the nmme.

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as long as we have moisture I'm fine, it's summer its going to be warm and humid around here majority of the time. But dry, is no fun for me

 

LOL, I can imagine! How bad does it get out there on drought years?  I'd think the sprinklers would keep things mostly in check?

 

The weird pair was '09 and '10.   10 was as brutal to summer as the past two winters have been for winter - 5 days near 100 - a two day "cool down" to 88- then back to 100. '09 was cold (but IIRC crazy humid starting the second half of july.)

 

CPC does have "equal chances". so they didnt buy off on the nmme.

 

CPC always has EC around here :rolleyes:  I've always wondered if you keep refreshing the CPC page does it just generate new random results each time? :chin:

 

Going by the weeklies so far, though....

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