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Heavy Rain obs 5/16


tombo82685
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A storm system will track west of our area tonight into tomorrow with a cold front that will be slowing down in response to the block to our northeast. Out ahead of this storm a warm southerly flow will bring copious amount of moisture into the area. As this cold front marches east, PWATS are expected to increase to 1.5-2 inches which will aid into the heavy rain concerns. 

 

pwats_zpsec4dcaa6.jpg

 

Besides the heavy rain threat, there is the potential for a squall line to form along the cold front. Since there is less than 500j/kg of CAPE and <-2 of LI, the sole triggering mechanism would be the 40-50kt shear accompanying the front. 

GFS_3_2014051512_F24_SHRM_700_MB_zpsf959

 

With the limited instability, these cells should be low topped storms and the main concern outside of heavy rain and lightning would be some isolated damaging winds where the storm can bring down the strong winds a loft. Right off the ground about 2-3k ft The LLJ is ripping at 50-60 mph which can reach the surface if a downdraft from a thunderstorm can occur.

 

GFS_3_2014051512_F30_WSPD_925_MB_zpsb545

 

here is the current rainfall projections for the region

 

BnsGutPIUAEpahB.png

 

 

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should add this in

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-
161000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0002.140516T1200Z-140517T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
401 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND,
NEW CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE AND SALEM, GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN AND
NORTHWEST BURLINGTON COUNTIES.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING DURING THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ALSO IN URBAN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED
IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD OR LESS.

* EXPECT BOTH FRIDAY COMMUTES TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN LEADING INTO AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$

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It was a beautiful late spring night, with warm temps, high humidity, that pleasant smell of new growth.  Only thing odd was the gusty wind, which made me wonder if it was the warm sector during a late in Autumn or Winter system, rather than mid May.

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