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Siberian Snow Cover Theory in retrospect


Baseball0618
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I think though both are flawed, SCE is a more reliable indicator than SAI. It's known that SCE is more directly correlated to the overall temperatures in winter, while SAI is more of an indicator to the overall state of the AO. So while the SAI has busted the last two winters, the SCE has been been pretty darn accurate. I know it's not that cut and dry but it's interesting.

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I think though both are flawed, SCE is a more reliable indicator than SAI. It's known that SCE is more directly correlated to the overall temperatures in winter, while SAI is more of an indicator to the overall state of the AO. So while the SAI has busted the last two winters, the SCE has been been pretty darn accurate. I know it's not that cut and dry but it's interesting.

Its been accurate in eastern North America.  Not so much in Europe, as noted by the article.  Just sayin'

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I think though both are flawed, SCE is a more reliable indicator than SAI. It's known that SCE is more directly correlated to the overall temperatures in winter, while SAI is more of an indicator to the overall state of the AO. So while the SAI has busted the last two winters, the SCE has been been pretty darn accurate. I know it's not that cut and dry but it's interesting.

 

I have to look it up, but I think just having a cold October locally carries as much correlation as the SCE. Other factors have stronger correlations (AO comes to mind), but are difficult to outlook.  The negative seems to work better. Keeping snow cover under 9 million sq km is a pretty strong indicator of a less snowy winter. Of course one could state that 2 out of 3 are less snowy anyway.

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I have to look it up, but I think just having a cold October locally carries as much correlation as the SCE. Other factors have stronger correlations (AO comes to mind), but are difficult to outlook. The negative seems to work better. Keeping snow cover under 9 million sq km is a pretty strong indicator of a less snowy winter. Of course one could state that 2 out of 3 are less snowy anyway.

Good point. It's been a weird last two autumns really. Two warm Octobers followed by two cold winters.
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Good point. It's been a weird last two autumns really. Two warm Octobers followed by two cold winters.

 

I looked at this before winter started and it has never happened before to have two consecutive warm Octobers in a row that were followed by  cold winters.  I am doing this off the top of my head, but I think its only the third time we have ever had a positive ao for the winter and the winter has been cold.  Record breaking +PDO reigns.

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I looked at this before winter started and it has never happened before to have two consecutive warm Octobers in a row that were followed by  cold winters.  I am doing this off the top of my head, but I think its only the third time we have ever had a positive ao for the winter and the winter has been cold.  Record breaking +PDO reigns.

Make or break PDO... making your winter, breaking mine ;)

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I looked at this before winter started and it has never happened before to have two consecutive warm Octobers in a row that were followed by  cold winters.  I am doing this off the top of my head, but I think its only the third time we have ever had a positive ao for the winter and the winter has been cold.  Record breaking +PDO reigns.

 

I found this interesting too.  The one take away I'm picking up, as an outsider to this whole thing, is that the current state of long-range forecasting is too much statistics & probability akin to gambling odds, than it is to any real forecasting.  You can bet on 36:1 against red 21, but it's still just chance at the end.  Not that all forecasting isn't stat & prob to a degree, but I think coming in from the outside, I came in with the impression that there was a lot more cause & effect going on in long range than what really seems to be odds & percentages. Short range is infinitely more cause & effect driven to the point that I'm not sure long range is even practical beyond theory and study yet.  It's the part that somehow still interests me, personally, the most though. It's just disappointing that there's more unknown than known presently.

 

Once we start getting to things that have never happened before that contradict previously accepted corollaries, it feels like a big step back to square one in long range prediction. I'm sure the thinking is still "but it increases odds" or "correlates x% of the time", but with all the interrelated correlations and broken correlations, don't we really still end up with 50/50 chance of any long range forecast verifying?

 

Despite the potential current uselessness of it, I still find that stuff a lot more intriguing than tracking storms and guessing snowfall totals.  Nowcasting for temps interests me and understanding why a given temp had/will have a given effect (radiational cooling nights, why did 2 fronts behave differently for real temp etc), but storms other than knowing "coating, plowing, flooding, etc" don't interest me half as much as trying to understand a year from now :)  Even though I've now learned how little chance there is of understanding that in my lifetime :(

 

Make or break PDO... making your winter, breaking mine ;)

 

You can have it back.   Please? -_-

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can we say it was right for the wrong reason? I mean totally missed the -ao. But not sure if it was responsible for the robust -epo signature or if that was more cause of the PDO. regardless, winter snowfall was above normal and colder than normal.

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can we say it was right for the wrong reason? I mean totally missed the -ao. But not sure if it was responsible for the robust -epo signature or if that was more cause of the PDO. regardless, winter snowfall was above normal and colder than normal.

 

That was like the previous winter where some cold outlooks were based on a -NAO and weak el nino.  I'd run to the bank with it.

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That was like the previous winter where some cold outlooks were based on a -NAO and weak el nino.  I'd run to the bank with it.

 

 

Pressed for time lately, but before this October ends, I am going to correlate all of the indicators in the Siberian snow cover era and see what works best for the local area.

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