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Front & Back End Snow/Ice Threat, March 3-5.


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Pretty scenic ride into work this morning....well at least until I entered Darby.

Depends on location.  Far NW (LV and out towards H-burg) were mid-20s.  I-95 corridor didn't drop much below freezing until the storm was winding down.   I heard there's this guy who does a winter s

Still raining now, not going to make a difference the course you maintain is still going to have poor conditions regardless.  Philly has been shafted either north or south on all but one storm this wi

here is a euro snowfall map that doesn't factor in front-end stuff from it's 12z run. might be missing a little since it's from 48-72hr.  

 

post-342-0-83568500-1425411474.jpg

Yeah that misses the first 6-12 hours (48-72 means it starts 12Z thursday)

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Yeah that misses the first 6-12 hours (48-72 means it starts 12Z thursday)

I don't have raw data, but I'm just going off thicknesses when 546 hits phl and it looks like hr 45 it gets to phl so I assumed thats when they flipped to snow from sleet.

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Mitch, Tony, do either of you care to speculate on the accums (not forecast), or is that strictly verboten?

I'm liking 4-8 from north of turnpike down to M/D line blending into 6-10 over DE. Folks can extrapolate the other longitudes.

Tom, take this down if it's inappropriate.

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I don't have raw data, but I'm just going off thicknesses when 546 hits phl and it looks like hr 45 it gets to phl so I assumed thats when they flipped to snow from sleet.

I was thinking not just of PHL but the northern areas.  ABE definitely switches before 6Z.

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I don't have raw data, but I'm just going off thicknesses when 546 hits phl and it looks like hr 45 it gets to phl so I assumed thats when they flipped to snow from sleet.

I haven't been using 1000-500 thickness much with this event. The warm layer resides more within 900-700mb and with low level clod flying in first that needs to carry weight. I have been playing more with the 1000-700mb thickness as the p-type transition line. While 850-700mb maybe better, with the low level cold air flying in first I didn't want to discount the 1000-850 thickness either. Attached is the Euro at hour 42 w/ 1000-700mb thickness. It crashes to Cape May 6 hours later. post-829-0-38396200-1425413721.png

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Superstorm of '93 temps during the event for Philly and surrounding suburbs were not too far from freezing (it did change to plain rain for a time after the front-end thump of snow/sleet).  The temps after the storm passed were very cold for several days.

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Not much of a change then, thanks.

 

Temp wise, does anyone have data on Blizzard of '93 temps?  IIRC it was a good deal colder, was it not?

Depends on location.  Far NW (LV and out towards H-burg) were mid-20s.  I-95 corridor didn't drop much below freezing until the storm was winding down.

 

I heard there's this guy who does a winter storm archive...

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Not much of a change then, thanks.

 

Temp wise, does anyone have data on Blizzard of '93 temps?  IIRC it was a good deal colder, was it not?

 

Blizzard of '93 at PHL started with temps in the low-to-mid 30's.  As temperatures fell approaching midday on 3/13/93, PHL transitioned to sleet, then they dryslotted.  Light precip began again around 10pm that night at 35F as rain, then flipped quickly to snow as cold air came in behind the storm and dropped overnight temps into the low 20's.

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1993/13-Mar-93-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html

 

:)

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GFS goes further south and east again. Definitely something to watch.

Yup.  0z suite will determine whether I pull back on my thinking of 4 to 6 inches of snow (from late tomorrow night into Thursday) in northern Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties.

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Yup.  0z suite will determine whether I pull back on my thinking of 4 to 6 inches of snow (from late tomorrow night into Thursday) in northern Chester, Montgomery and Bucks counties.

 

I think we're good for at least 4 here. Might be 4 when it's all done but 4 is a pretty reasonable bet at this point.

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GFS goes further south and east again. Definitely something to watch.

It might be more of it just being weaker. The low looks to be in the same spot, it's just not as strong. But the weaker low may be because of the stronger confluence up north pushing in.  Its still bullseyeing the same locales, just tightened the northern edges. SV maps still show 8-12 over the same region its just not as widespread because the lack of qpf...this looks like a 4-8 storm honestly. 

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It might be more of it just being weaker. The low looks to be in the same spot, it's just not as strong. But the weaker low may be because of the stronger confluence up north pushing in.  Its still bullseyeing the same locales, just tightened the northern edges. SV maps still show 8-12 over the same region its just not as widespread because the lack of qpf...this looks like a 4-8 storm honestly. 

On March 5th  Let's do this!

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On March 5th  Let's do this!

it wouldn't shock me if this continues to trend drier/tick a little south. Thats a serious cold push that needs to be respected. I think phl is good for 4+, just not sure I would go 6+ yet.

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It might be more of it just being weaker. The low looks to be in the same spot, it's just not as strong. But the weaker low may be because of the stronger confluence up north pushing in.  Its still bullseyeing the same locales, just tightened the northern edges. SV maps still show 8-12 over the same region its just not as widespread because the lack of qpf...this looks like a 4-8 storm honestly. 

 

Agree  its mainly a weaker system - max is still just s of phl. Now the gfs is more inline with the euro.

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Yeah, definitely tightened the northern gradient on this compared to 12z. Somehow still spitting out 12"+ in SJ which makes no sense to me, but whatever.

 

 

cause its throwing in ratios in and you still get like .75 qpf as snow.

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it wouldn't shock me if this continues to trend drier/tick a little south. Thats a serious cold push that needs to be respected. I think phl is good for 4+, just not sure I would go 6+ yet.

but you also have the cold push going against a southeast ridge that needs to be respected. I think if it ticks any direction it will be north a bit.
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