Harbourton Posted September 1 Report Share Posted September 1 Way out there but the Euro has a way of sniffing these things out. That's a Cat 4 bordering on a Cat 5 with a 1033 high over top at the peak of of the season. Hopefully this will pan out like our snowstorm threats at that range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 2 Report Share Posted September 2 17 hours ago, Harbourton said: Way out there but the Euro has a way of sniffing these things out. That's a Cat 4 bordering on a Cat 5 with a 1033 high over top at the peak of of the season. Hopefully this will pan out like our snowstorm threats at that range. Yes, that one has potential. Consistent with the seasonal trend, the day 9 EPS has a protective trough along the east coast. But its a long way out and things could change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted September 4 Report Share Posted September 4 The GFS brings a tear to my eye... Usually from laughing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 4 Author Report Share Posted September 4 Fish storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted September 5 Report Share Posted September 5 19 hours ago, Harbourton said: Fish storm. I wouldn't be quite so sure. There has been a tendency the past 1-2 days to increase Atlantic ridging, plus slow down the speed of this storm. It would still take a lot to get this to back into the mid-Atlantic, but a solution into eastern New England or Nova Scotia is very reasonable given this setup. Worth watching closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 6 Report Share Posted September 6 15 hours ago, ACwx said: I wouldn't be quite so sure. There has been a tendency the past 1-2 days to increase Atlantic ridging, plus slow down the speed of this storm. It would still take a lot to get this to back into the mid-Atlantic, but a solution into eastern New England or Nova Scotia is very reasonable given this setup. Worth watching closely. Yes, per the day 7 eps below, the Atlantic ridge continued to trend stronger overnight. Also have to watch the midwest trough, too much digging too far west would be problematic. Still favors out to sea, but getting uncomfortably close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6 Report Share Posted September 6 Same time 12z run: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted September 6 Report Share Posted September 6 Regardless of how close each ensemble member is to shore, the other common factor among most of them is that once they turn north, there isn't really much of a "curve" out to sea - the motion remains either due north or perhaps north-northeast (thanks, Atlantic ridging). In particular the Euro full-res run from 00z last night and 12z yesterday both actually had a northwest motion to end each model run. Good thing the threat is still so far away and a lot can change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 Hopefully 70W is viewed as an unscaleable wall. UKMET is either going to pull a coup or is soon going to be living in a coop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 Early signals of an eye trying to form, convection finally wrapping all the way around the center Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 5 hours ago, ACwx said: Early signals of an eye trying to form, convection finally wrapping all the way around the center Well that didn't take long 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7 Author Report Share Posted September 7 Since that there is possibility that Lee may hit Maine, I came across this article. Long read but interesting. Some projections for 500 year rain storms go ut to 2096 based on assumed climate change. https://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Powerpoint/Maine Hurricanes_Wells_Reserve.pdf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 EPS shifted west. Has a few New England hits. GEFS is much weaker with midwest trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7 Report Share Posted September 7 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: EPS shifted west. Has a few New England hits. GEFS is much weaker with midwest trough. I am hoping the lack of progression bias the EPS showed this summer (their never ending warmth usurping the GEFS) still holds true in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 8 Report Share Posted September 8 Impressive initial recon. In the Cat 5 ballpark 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted September 8 Report Share Posted September 8 6 hours ago, Harbourton said: Since that there is possibility that Lee may hit Maine, I came across this article. Long read but interesting. Some projections for 500 year rain storms go ut to 2096 based on assumed climate change. https://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Powerpoint/Maine Hurricanes_Wells_Reserve.pdf Let’s hope not…I head back to upper DownEast Maine late next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 8 Report Share Posted September 8 I am not going to announcer jinx, just post the maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 8 Author Report Share Posted September 8 As Lee goes by, the unguarded beaches in NJ will be exposed again to dangerous rip currents and pounding waves. People take advantage of lower costs at this time of year to visit coast. There will be deaths. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 9 Report Share Posted September 9 Can’t explain it, day run euro west, night run euro east. GFS & GGEM remain between the windshield wipe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 9 Report Share Posted September 9 24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Can’t explain it, day run euro west, night run euro east. GFS & GGEM remain between the windshield wipe. This still looks like a Canada hit to me unless the storm can get sucked into the trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 9 Report Share Posted September 9 15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This still looks like a Canada hit to me unless the storm can get sucked into the trough. I am guessing this is going to be outlier left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 9 Report Share Posted September 9 50 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I am guessing this is going to be outlier left. It is the S.S. Laggard ensemble members for now other than that one RI hit at this time that get that far west, otherwise the bulk remain fixated on Nova Scotia for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 10 Report Share Posted September 10 Now that the 12z GFS & GGEM have gone west with Lee. The irony would be if the Euro stayed east after the last couple of 12z runs by it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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