Harbourton Posted August 24 Report Share Posted August 24 NJ looks in good shape for the near future according to ECENS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 26 Report Share Posted August 26 On 8/24/2023 at 5:10 PM, Harbourton said: NJ looks in good shape for the near future according to ECENS. Labor Day weekend issues? Maybe Friday before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Lou Posted August 26 Report Share Posted August 26 The last 4 "i" storms have caused @ $200 billion in damage...Imelda, Isiaisis, Ida and Ian. Looks like Idalia is going to be trouble. Several days on the long track through the GOM in which the water temperatures are above normal. Some of the hurricane models are showing a major hurricane. Look out big bend/ panhandle area of Florida. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 27 Report Share Posted August 27 One of my favorite spots, St. George Island, looks to be in the crosshairs at this time with at least a cat 3. Michael levelled the area just west of there in 2017 IIRC. It was amazing driving west on US 98 to see no damage to total devastation within 10 miles from Port St. Joe to Mexico Beach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 As forecast, Idalia's structure improved overnight, with an eyewall becoming visible on IR recently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 2 hours ago, Chubbs said: As forecast, Idalia's structure improved overnight, with an eyewall becoming visible on IR recently. Here comes a Cat II or III. NHC should just retire the letter I. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 Pretty much all model data stalls and meanders Idalia after she moves offshore of the Carolinas. In an interesting twist, a cluster of Euro ensemble members take Idalia's remnants and actually bring it close to the East coast in 9-10 days. Nearly all GFS and CMC ensembles completely shred the storm before that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Here comes a Cat II or III. NHC should just retire the letter I. All in favor, say "I". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 Outflow in the western semi-circle improving. Appears it was fighting some dry air that wrapped around the north side. With good ventilation on all 4 sides I'd be surprised if it doesn't take off with a clear eye before sunset...but I'm just a snow weenie using hurricane season to distract me until winter arrives Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 29 Author Report Share Posted August 29 Tampa NWS warning of a historic storm surge for the following areas - - Cedar Key - Yankeetown - Fowler Bluff Get the fu#$ out of there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 29 Author Report Share Posted August 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 29 Report Share Posted August 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 👁 J 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 It looks like Idalia might be undergoing an ERC on its way in (or dry air entrainment) and may be sparing the absolute worst case scenario? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted August 31 Report Share Posted August 31 https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2023/08/30/st-elmos-fire-idalia-florida-contd-lon-orig-mg.cnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 31 Report Share Posted August 31 Seems like the Outer Banks are taking a bigger beating than (atleast I) anticipated. I guess it's prone to getting impacted one way or another. Meanwhile, my buddy who moved to Hilton Head, SC recently said it was a yawner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted August 31 Report Share Posted August 31 On 8/29/2023 at 10:19 AM, ACwx said: Pretty much all model data stalls and meanders Idalia after she moves offshore of the Carolinas. In an interesting twist, a cluster of Euro ensemble members take Idalia's remnants and actually bring it close to the East coast in 9-10 days. Nearly all GFS and CMC ensembles completely shred the storm before that point. 2 days later and models are even more favorable on the concept of Idalia tracking backwards towards the East coast. Last night's EPS showed a bigger cluster of members coming back (some fairly strong) and the 12z model guidance nearly all show a curve. I still really don't think there would be any notable impacts if this did happen, just interesting more than anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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