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17th-19th Post Pres Day threat


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Good call dude.

Wanted to show how ridge position is playing a big role here. first image is 0z last night, second image 0z yesterday. Notice the the difference in the location of the ridges. 0z further offshore and

Still a solid hit south of the PA Turnpike. Heisenberg can stop worrying for a little while longer.   It's a faster in, faster out with a little less QPF. It's a good snow for Philly.

Tombo, the snow totals in your signature says it all. I know to a degree that is "climo-like" but Center City has been snake bitten badly. After this snow event tonight places like BWI (6" below as of today) and ACY (5" below as of today) will be near their seasonal norms to date. Philly would need 9-10 inches to catch up to normal. That's not happening tonight.

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Looks like that top arc of the storm may bring some joy soon.

 

Also noted, SREF plume for KPTW still playing at 20:1 (6+ in from 0.3 QPF).

hb this, if ptw get 6+ I'll buy 2 cases of bud light lol. Also, is that just from todays event, because the srefs have wednesday little squall potential in it to. Because the latest srefs cut back the total again from 15z.

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As previously mentioned, I'm curious to watch the banding in south-central PA. Looking at SPC Mesoanalysis, area of 700mb frontogenesis is starting to develop. post-829-0-90713000-1424137285.png.

 

Also, SW and SC PA are sitting in the left exit region of a ~95-100 knot 500mb jet core centered over northern KY. Something to watch as it presses east as this would be the band that gives Philly its period of heaviest snow. post-829-0-64878800-1424137443.png

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Also, is that just from todays event, because the srefs have wednesday little squall potential in it to.

Yes, it appears to be. The SREF mean line shows an additional uptick for Wed. but is very level thru tonight and tomorrow.

 

 

Because the latest srefs cut back the total again from 15z.

Noticed that, but was commenting more on the "optomistic" snow ratios in use.

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Yes, it appears to be. The SREF mean line shows an additional uptick for Wed. but is very level thru tonight and tomorrow.

 

Noticed that, but was commenting more on the "optomistic" snow ratios in use.

Yea I think Mitch posted a while back that the srefs over do the snow ratios because they over saturate the SGZ, but maybe it work out here.

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