February 11th-17th - Twin Arctic Avengers

[chescowx]

From JB today on the upcoming pattern...

 

"Twin Arctic Avengers that can have blizzard conditions with them ( though snows won't be as great as the Jan 26-28 blizzard) will impact the east the next 7 days. The first will have its epicenter where the blizzard did, but also have some snow further back west and push the south part of the eastern snowbank south a bit, into the northern mid atlantic The Second is likely to have its epicenter on the south end of the snowpack.. which means it may leave snow on the ground all the way to the Va-NC border As these travel southeast through the northern plains and midwest, it will become clearer that the scramble period of mild is gone and the backing of the cold is underway. Next week, will lead to enhanced snow further south and west, well into the plains and at this time, as far south as the I-40 corridor. The core of cold will expand back west.

The winter so far has had its share of triumph and tragedy. I feel very confident of 2 things. 1) the snow forecast which is first to last flake.. will by and large workout, and by that I mean, if we have above normal it will be above normal.. I can't say it in every single backyard spot, but I love what I see as far as the pattern goes 2) We had an area of -5 for this winter over the still warmer than normal midwest ( Dec-Jan) For the specific winter season, Dec-Feb, I think we will get that, but over New England, again a maddening WESTWARD bias of my cold ( Last year because it was over the plains more, and everyone was cold it did not matter. but the core was supposed to be east. Its maddening because my bias for much of my career was too cold too far east! But another thing to point out, and this is probably in the excuse category. If I took the blend of 90 days for Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar and put together a 5 month forecast out of that for Nov-Mar, given what has happened and what I think is going to happen, it would have been a great 5 month forecast. I am confident the plains and even the southeast down to I 20, will share in the winter woe, though its obvious the worse is in the northeast. "

[chescowx]

Of course everybody's favorite MET JB was all over this last night and this AM saying it would be a thump to rain. That said it will no doubt change a few more times over the next 48 hours.....this winter nothing is easy!