JSchwake28 64 Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchg 1,572 Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? I'll post the sref one tommorow if I have time. Different inital conditions within the SREF and it's not random. Would like to know more about the EC ensemble spread in terms of physics parameters and different inital conditions, Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow5.8 9,493 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? There is a paper by Wei et al. 2007 that goes into detail about how initial conditions are perturbed in the GEFS. I have not read it. As far as I know, its the same GFS core with all of the ensemble members, just a coarser resolution. The Canadian ensembles and the SREF members have different cores/physics packages in addition to perturbing the initial conditions within those cores. Mitch, especially with the SREF, is more up on this than I am. I have read a comment that the ECMWF's cores are all the same, a complaint that its ensemble members just follow the leader too often. I cant substantiate this. Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 13,030 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 There is a paper by Wei et al. 2007 that goes into detail about how initial conditions are perturbed in the GEFS. I have not read it. As far as I know, its the same GFS core with all of the ensemble members, just a coarser resolution. The Canadian ensembles and the SREF members have different cores/physics packages in addition to perturbing the initial conditions within those cores. Mitch, especially with the SREF, is more up on this than I am. I have read a comment that the ECMWF's cores are all the same, a complaint that its ensemble members just follow the leader too often. I cant substantiate this. From what Adam was telling me the new GEFS upgrade in April are suppose to be state of the art where they go more on probability or something like that. Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow5.8 9,493 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 From what Adam was telling me the new GEFS upgrade in April are suppose to be state of the art where they go more on probability or something like that. They showed some verification stats including a sandy re forecast, looks better. I think it will be available in mageval starting in march. Link to post Share on other sites
JSchwake28 64 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thanks for the input guys! I'll have to take a look at the Wei et al. paper Link to post Share on other sites
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