JSchwake28 Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted February 7, 2015 Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? I'll post the sref one tommorow if I have time. Different inital conditions within the SREF and it's not random. Would like to know more about the EC ensemble spread in terms of physics parameters and different inital conditions, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 I never really thought about this before, but how are the initial condition adjustments set when running ensembles? Is it random? Which inputs are actually adjusted? There is a paper by Wei et al. 2007 that goes into detail about how initial conditions are perturbed in the GEFS. I have not read it. As far as I know, its the same GFS core with all of the ensemble members, just a coarser resolution. The Canadian ensembles and the SREF members have different cores/physics packages in addition to perturbing the initial conditions within those cores. Mitch, especially with the SREF, is more up on this than I am. I have read a comment that the ECMWF's cores are all the same, a complaint that its ensemble members just follow the leader too often. I cant substantiate this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 There is a paper by Wei et al. 2007 that goes into detail about how initial conditions are perturbed in the GEFS. I have not read it. As far as I know, its the same GFS core with all of the ensemble members, just a coarser resolution. The Canadian ensembles and the SREF members have different cores/physics packages in addition to perturbing the initial conditions within those cores. Mitch, especially with the SREF, is more up on this than I am. I have read a comment that the ECMWF's cores are all the same, a complaint that its ensemble members just follow the leader too often. I cant substantiate this. From what Adam was telling me the new GEFS upgrade in April are suppose to be state of the art where they go more on probability or something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2015 Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 From what Adam was telling me the new GEFS upgrade in April are suppose to be state of the art where they go more on probability or something like that. They showed some verification stats including a sandy re forecast, looks better. I think it will be available in mageval starting in march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thanks for the input guys! I'll have to take a look at the Wei et al. paper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.