Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 EMC stated that the Northeast's 2m cold bias in the GFS with this upgrade has not been fixed yet. So taking that under advisement, it will be interesting to see how low we truly go. The amazing part is that its not a one shot deal, it looks very 1979ish with prolonged sustained cold. Those GEFS 500mb means from yesterday gave me frostbite just looking at them. PHL has not had a single digit low in Feb. since 1996 (well there is low chance for Friday morning) and a below zero low since 1979. For now these are still "week 2" lows. GFS run...lowest 2m temp of run. (All Feb runs). 1/12z........-3F 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 you want me to do euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 PHL hasn't had a single digit low since 1996? What do you mean? They definitely reached the single digits on several occasions just last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 PHL hasn't had a single digit low since 1996? What do you mean? They definitely reached the single digits on several occasions just last year in February I believe he is talking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 oh ok I knew I was missing something.. deh! That makes a lot more sense. That's quite a surprising stat. Almost 20 years without even reaching the single digits with all of those Feb snowstorms we've had?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 in February I believe he is talking That's very interesting considering a post Ray made a month or two ago about how every months average temp has risen by a few degrees, expect for Feb which has stayed about the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 PHL hasn't had a single digit low since 1996? What do you mean? They definitely reached the single digits on several occasions just last year Yes I meant for the month of Feb. I have to double check that later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yes I meant for the month of Feb. I have to double check that later today. That stat is bang on. Monthly mins at PHL: YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL1979 10 -2 17 30 46 48 54 50 45 33 27 18 -21980 15 13 9 27 40 48 58 59 44 35 25 1 11981 0 9 16 32 40 54 58 57 44 31 25 14 01982 -7 16 22 19 51 53 55 46 50 32 23 12 -71983 13 3 23 32 40 52 57 55 40 30 29 1 11984 -7 12 7 29 40 44 56 55 44 41 21 21 -71985 -6 13 19 22 40 52 57 57 47 31 34 11 -61986 9 11 12 34 35 48 52 44 44 38 19 17 91987 4 9 19 29 38 50 58 53 45 33 20 13 41988 3 8 19 32 43 47 52 54 48 28 28 8 31989 11 14 17 31 41 55 60 55 42 37 19 6 61990 20 10 18 28 41 48 60 62 44 32 30 19 101991 13 17 25 33 45 53 65 65 47 38 25 18 131992 11 16 19 30 43 50 61 56 44 31 28 19 111993 22 9 11 36 46 51 66 62 47 40 26 17 91994 -5 10 23 35 42 51 66 55 46 40 24 22 -51995 14 5 21 27 46 58 61 62 50 39 26 14 51996 10 3 12 33 40 50 59 62 49 37 21 16 31997 6 20 25 29 39 48 60 57 43 33 25 21 61998 16 21 20 37 43 52 62 58 49 38 32 18 161999 12 16 18 37 45 56 55 60 48 39 29 18 122000 7 17 24 31 40 53 60 56 41 35 23 12 72001 15 19 23 33 45 52 58 64 46 36 29 20 152002 20 20 19 31 41 55 62 61 56 37 26 16 162003 8 11 18 30 43 53 65 60 50 33 28 21 82004 4 11 24 31 42 55 62 56 50 39 28 10 42005 3 16 18 38 37 54 62 63 48 37 22 15 32006 20 15 25 34 45 51 62 61 47 36 30 23 152007 10 10 16 30 42 55 58 57 50 38 26 20 102008 15 11 28 31 42 56 65 58 53 36 23 15 112009 6 15 13 34 44 52 60 62 51 38 31 17 62010 14 13 29 40 42 58 61 60 54 41 30 19 132011 8 16 22 35 46 56 66 59 50 31 34 26 82012 14 19 27 37 50 52 64 64 51 37 28 29 142013 12 18 28 31 41 57 63 58 47 37 20 21 122014 4 10 12 31 49 54 62 60 50 39 20 25 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 That stat is bang on. Monthly mins at PHL: YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL1979 10 -2 17 30 46 48 54 50 45 33 27 18 -21980 15 13 9 27 40 48 58 59 44 35 25 1 11981 0 9 16 32 40 54 58 57 44 31 25 14 01982 -7 16 22 19 51 53 55 46 50 32 23 12 -71983 13 3 23 32 40 52 57 55 40 30 29 1 11984 -7 12 7 29 40 44 56 55 44 41 21 21 -71985 -6 13 19 22 40 52 57 57 47 31 34 11 -61986 9 11 12 34 35 48 52 44 44 38 19 17 91987 4 9 19 29 38 50 58 53 45 33 20 13 41988 3 8 19 32 43 47 52 54 48 28 28 8 31989 11 14 17 31 41 55 60 55 42 37 19 6 61990 20 10 18 28 41 48 60 62 44 32 30 19 101991 13 17 25 33 45 53 65 65 47 38 25 18 131992 11 16 19 30 43 50 61 56 44 31 28 19 111993 22 9 11 36 46 51 66 62 47 40 26 17 91994 -5 10 23 35 42 51 66 55 46 40 24 22 -51995 14 5 21 27 46 58 61 62 50 39 26 14 51996 10 3 12 33 40 50 59 62 49 37 21 16 31997 6 20 25 29 39 48 60 57 43 33 25 21 61998 16 21 20 37 43 52 62 58 49 38 32 18 161999 12 16 18 37 45 56 55 60 48 39 29 18 122000 7 17 24 31 40 53 60 56 41 35 23 12 72001 15 19 23 33 45 52 58 64 46 36 29 20 152002 20 20 19 31 41 55 62 61 56 37 26 16 162003 8 11 18 30 43 53 65 60 50 33 28 21 82004 4 11 24 31 42 55 62 56 50 39 28 10 42005 3 16 18 38 37 54 62 63 48 37 22 15 32006 20 15 25 34 45 51 62 61 47 36 30 23 152007 10 10 16 30 42 55 58 57 50 38 26 20 102008 15 11 28 31 42 56 65 58 53 36 23 15 112009 6 15 13 34 44 52 60 62 51 38 31 17 62010 14 13 29 40 42 58 61 60 54 41 30 19 132011 8 16 22 35 46 56 66 59 50 31 34 26 82012 14 19 27 37 50 52 64 64 51 37 28 29 142013 12 18 28 31 41 57 63 58 47 37 20 21 122014 4 10 12 31 49 54 62 60 50 39 20 25 4 Impressive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yes I meant for the month of Feb. I have to double check that later today. Or have Ray answer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 that would be awesome if that -12 verified Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 Been 5 yrs. since PHL has recorded a low in the teens during DEC NOV's had lower monthly min the past 3 yrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 4, 2015 Report Share Posted February 4, 2015 I just want to see it go below 0 at PHL. 1994 was a long time ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z....... (thru morning of 22nd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2015 Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 Maue posted on twitter that the new gfs cold bias for lows is really bad right now, esp over snow cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 6, 2015 Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 Maue posted on twitter that the new gfs cold bias for lows is really bad right now, esp over snow cover. Showing -30's & -40's over the deep snowpack in New England. Yeah, right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 Maue posted on twitter that the new gfs cold bias for lows is really bad right now, esp over snow cover. Its not scintillating over bare ground either. Yesterdays day run 3F too cold at PHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z.......2F (thru morning of 22nd) 6/18z.......0F 7/00z.......0F 7/06z......-1F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z.......2F (thru morning of 22nd) 6/18z.......0F 7/00z.......0F 7/06z......-1F 7/12z.......0F 7/18z.......-1F 8/00z.......-2F 8/06z.......2F 8/12z.......-6F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z.......2F (thru morning of 22nd) 6/18z.......0F 7/00z.......0F 7/06z......-1F 7/12z.......0F 7/18z.......-1F 8/00z.......-2F 8/06z.......2F 8/12z.......-6F 8/18z......0F 9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th) 9/06z......0F (daytime high of 7F on the 15th) 9/12z.....-2F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z.......2F (thru morning of 22nd) 6/18z.......0F 7/00z.......0F 7/06z......-1F 7/12z.......0F 7/18z.......-1F 8/00z.......-2F 8/06z.......2F 8/12z.......-6F 8/18z......0F 9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th) 9/06z......0F (daytime high of 7F on the 15th) 9/12z.....-2F 9/18z.....0F 10/00z....1F 10/06z....0F 10/12z....-9F (three other days with lows of -4F) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 1/12z........-3F (thru morning of the 17th) 1/18z........15F 2/0z..........0F 2/6z..........3F 2/12z........-3F 2/18z........-5F 3/0z.........-12F 3/6z.........-2F 3/12z.......-4F 3/18z.......-6F 4/0z.........-9F 4/6z.........-5F 4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14 4/18z.......3F 5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9 5/06z.......-3F 5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings) 5/18z.......3F 6/00z.......2F 6/06z.......2F 6/12z.......2F (thru morning of 22nd) 6/18z.......0F 7/00z.......0F 7/06z......-1F 7/12z.......0F 7/18z.......-1F 8/00z.......-2F 8/06z.......2F 8/12z.......-6F 8/18z......0F 9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th) 9/06z......0F (daytime high of 7F on the 15th) 9/12z.....-2F 9/18z.....0F 10/00z....1F 10/06z....0F 10/12z....-9F (three other days with lows of -4F) 10/18z....-1F 11/00z....-1F on 26th 11/06z....-1F on 25th 11/12z....2F (thru morning of 27th) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 here you go, fri morn with HP over head and fresh snow on the ground euro has -10 to -15 from 295 on nw and pine barrens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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