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The Obscene Long Range Cold Predicted By The GFS, Verification Starting To Trickle In.


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EMC stated that the Northeast's 2m cold bias in the GFS with this upgrade has not been fixed yet.  So taking that under advisement, it will be interesting to see how low we truly go.  The amazing part is that its not a one shot deal, it looks very 1979ish with prolonged sustained cold.  Those GEFS 500mb means from yesterday gave me frostbite just looking at them.

 

PHL has not had a single digit low in Feb. since 1996 (well there is low chance for Friday morning) and a below zero low since 1979.  For now these are still "week 2" lows.

 

GFS run...lowest 2m temp of run.  (All Feb runs).

 

1/12z........-3F

1/18z........15F

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

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Yes I meant for the month of Feb. I have to double check that later today.

That stat is bang on.

 

Monthly mins at PHL:

YEAR   JAN     FEB     MAR     APR     MAY     JUN     JUL     AUG     SEP     OCT     NOV     DEC   ANNUAL1979	10	-2	17	30	46	48	54	50	45	33	27	18	-21980	15	13	9	27	40	48	58	59	44	35	25	1	11981	0	9	16	32	40	54	58	57	44	31	25	14	01982	-7	16	22	19	51	53	55	46	50	32	23	12	-71983	13	3	23	32	40	52	57	55	40	30	29	1	11984	-7	12	7	29	40	44	56	55	44	41	21	21	-71985	-6	13	19	22	40	52	57	57	47	31	34	11	-61986	9	11	12	34	35	48	52	44	44	38	19	17	91987	4	9	19	29	38	50	58	53	45	33	20	13	41988	3	8	19	32	43	47	52	54	48	28	28	8	31989	11	14	17	31	41	55	60	55	42	37	19	6	61990	20	10	18	28	41	48	60	62	44	32	30	19	101991	13	17	25	33	45	53	65	65	47	38	25	18	131992	11	16	19	30	43	50	61	56	44	31	28	19	111993	22	9	11	36	46	51	66	62	47	40	26	17	91994	-5	10	23	35	42	51	66	55	46	40	24	22	-51995	14	5	21	27	46	58	61	62	50	39	26	14	51996	10	3	12	33	40	50	59	62	49	37	21	16	31997	6	20	25	29	39	48	60	57	43	33	25	21	61998	16	21	20	37	43	52	62	58	49	38	32	18	161999	12	16	18	37	45	56	55	60	48	39	29	18	122000	7	17	24	31	40	53	60	56	41	35	23	12	72001	15	19	23	33	45	52	58	64	46	36	29	20	152002	20	20	19	31	41	55	62	61	56	37	26	16	162003	8	11	18	30	43	53	65	60	50	33	28	21	82004	4	11	24	31	42	55	62	56	50	39	28	10	42005	3	16	18	38	37	54	62	63	48	37	22	15	32006	20	15	25	34	45	51	62	61	47	36	30	23	152007	10	10	16	30	42	55	58	57	50	38	26	20	102008	15	11	28	31	42	56	65	58	53	36	23	15	112009	6	15	13	34	44	52	60	62	51	38	31	17	62010	14	13	29	40	42	58	61	60	54	41	30	19	132011	8	16	22	35	46	56	66	59	50	31	34	26	82012	14	19	27	37	50	52	64	64	51	37	28	29	142013	12	18	28	31	41	57	63	58	47	37	20	21	122014	4	10	12	31	49	54	62	60	50	39	20	25	4
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That stat is bang on.

 

Monthly mins at PHL:

YEAR   JAN     FEB     MAR     APR     MAY     JUN     JUL     AUG     SEP     OCT     NOV     DEC   ANNUAL1979	10	-2	17	30	46	48	54	50	45	33	27	18	-21980	15	13	9	27	40	48	58	59	44	35	25	1	11981	0	9	16	32	40	54	58	57	44	31	25	14	01982	-7	16	22	19	51	53	55	46	50	32	23	12	-71983	13	3	23	32	40	52	57	55	40	30	29	1	11984	-7	12	7	29	40	44	56	55	44	41	21	21	-71985	-6	13	19	22	40	52	57	57	47	31	34	11	-61986	9	11	12	34	35	48	52	44	44	38	19	17	91987	4	9	19	29	38	50	58	53	45	33	20	13	41988	3	8	19	32	43	47	52	54	48	28	28	8	31989	11	14	17	31	41	55	60	55	42	37	19	6	61990	20	10	18	28	41	48	60	62	44	32	30	19	101991	13	17	25	33	45	53	65	65	47	38	25	18	131992	11	16	19	30	43	50	61	56	44	31	28	19	111993	22	9	11	36	46	51	66	62	47	40	26	17	91994	-5	10	23	35	42	51	66	55	46	40	24	22	-51995	14	5	21	27	46	58	61	62	50	39	26	14	51996	10	3	12	33	40	50	59	62	49	37	21	16	31997	6	20	25	29	39	48	60	57	43	33	25	21	61998	16	21	20	37	43	52	62	58	49	38	32	18	161999	12	16	18	37	45	56	55	60	48	39	29	18	122000	7	17	24	31	40	53	60	56	41	35	23	12	72001	15	19	23	33	45	52	58	64	46	36	29	20	152002	20	20	19	31	41	55	62	61	56	37	26	16	162003	8	11	18	30	43	53	65	60	50	33	28	21	82004	4	11	24	31	42	55	62	56	50	39	28	10	42005	3	16	18	38	37	54	62	63	48	37	22	15	32006	20	15	25	34	45	51	62	61	47	36	30	23	152007	10	10	16	30	42	55	58	57	50	38	26	20	102008	15	11	28	31	42	56	65	58	53	36	23	15	112009	6	15	13	34	44	52	60	62	51	38	31	17	62010	14	13	29	40	42	58	61	60	54	41	30	19	132011	8	16	22	35	46	56	66	59	50	31	34	26	82012	14	19	27	37	50	52	64	64	51	37	28	29	142013	12	18	28	31	41	57	63	58	47	37	20	21	122014	4	10	12	31	49	54	62	60	50	39	20	25	4

 

Impressive!

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......      (thru morning of 22nd)

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Maue posted on twitter that the new gfs cold bias for lows is really bad right now, esp over snow cover.

Showing -30's & -40's over the deep snowpack in New England.   Yeah, right...

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......2F     (thru morning of 22nd)

6/18z.......0F

 

7/00z.......0F

7/06z......-1F

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......2F     (thru morning of 22nd)

6/18z.......0F

 

7/00z.......0F

7/06z......-1F

7/12z.......0F

7/18z.......-1F

 

8/00z.......-2F

8/06z.......2F

8/12z.......-6F

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......2F     (thru morning of 22nd)

6/18z.......0F

 

7/00z.......0F

7/06z......-1F

7/12z.......0F

7/18z.......-1F

 

8/00z.......-2F

8/06z.......2F

8/12z.......-6F

8/18z......0F

 

9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th)

9/06z......0F  (daytime high of 7F on the 15th)

9/12z.....-2F

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......2F     (thru morning of 22nd)

6/18z.......0F

 

7/00z.......0F

7/06z......-1F

7/12z.......0F

7/18z.......-1F

 

8/00z.......-2F

8/06z.......2F

8/12z.......-6F

8/18z......0F

 

9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th)

9/06z......0F  (daytime high of 7F on the 15th)

9/12z.....-2F

9/18z.....0F

 

10/00z....1F

10/06z....0F

10/12z....-9F (three other days with lows of -4F)

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1/12z........-3F  (thru morning of the 17th)

1/18z........15F

 

2/0z..........0F

2/6z..........3F

2/12z........-3F

2/18z........-5F

 

3/0z.........-12F

3/6z.........-2F

3/12z.......-4F

3/18z.......-6F

 

4/0z.........-9F

4/6z.........-5F

4/12z...... -2F (thru morning of the 20th), 12z euro -5 2/14

4/18z.......3F

 

5/00z.......-6F (includes a calendar day high of 2F), 0z euro -9

5/06z.......-3F

5/12z.......1F (1 or 2 on three separate mornings)

5/18z.......3F

 

6/00z.......2F

6/06z.......2F

6/12z.......2F     (thru morning of 22nd)

6/18z.......0F

 

7/00z.......0F

7/06z......-1F

7/12z.......0F

7/18z.......-1F

 

8/00z.......-2F

8/06z.......2F

8/12z.......-6F

8/18z......0F

 

9/00z......-2F (daytime high of 4F on the 15th)

9/06z......0F  (daytime high of 7F on the 15th)

9/12z.....-2F

9/18z.....0F

 

10/00z....1F

10/06z....0F

10/12z....-9F (three other days with lows of -4F)

10/18z....-1F
 

11/00z....-1F on 26th

11/06z....-1F on 25th

11/12z....2F (thru morning of 27th)

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