2/1-2/2 Event Model Evaluation for ABE & PHL, Results Are In!

[Rainshadow]

Here is a QPF evaluation for the Super Bowl Event.  Verification points are PHL & ABE.  

 

ABE :  Actual snowfall  W/E / Temps

 

NAM Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  6.7”;  10.9” 

1/31:  4.7”;  6.3” (29,30,29);  6.7” (28, 29, 29); 1.2” (28, 32, 32)

2/1:   6.8” (28, 31, 30);  4.9" (29, 32, 29)

 

SREF Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  5.9”;  6.1” 

1/31:  7.1”;  3.8” (28,29,32);  3.8” (28, 29, 32); 2.5” (28, 32, 33)

2/1:   3.6” (28, 33, 33);  3.8" (29, 33, 33)

 

GFS/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/31:  (29, 32, 30);  (28, 32, 33);  (28, 33, 33); (28, 33, 32)

2/1:   (28, 33, 32);  (28, 33, 34);  (29, 33, 34)

 

PHL :  Actual snowfall  W/E Temps

 

NAM Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  0.9/.80” (32,35);  .4”/1.13 (32,36) 

1/31:  .1”/1.10”(33, 38);  .4”/1.05” (32,38);  .2”/1.36” (32, 34); .3”/1.06” (32, 39)

2/1:   .6”/1.06” (31, 35);   .1"/1.14" (32, 36);

 

SREF Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  2.4/.70” (34,34);  1.3”/.85 (33,38) 

1/31:  1.6”/1.12”(33, 38);  .4”/.92” (33,40);  .5”/1.17” (33, 41); .3”/1.01” (32, 44)

2/1:   .5”/.98” (32, 41);  .2"/.97" (34, 42);

  

GFS W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  1.17” (32,32);  1.34” (33,37) 

1/31:  1.38”(34, 39);  1.43” (34,42);  1.49” (34, 42); 1.27” (34, 43)

2/1:   1.40” (33, 40); 1.07” (34,42);  1.30" (35, 45);

[Rainshadow]

I updated for some of the latest guidance. 

[Rainshadow]

Here is a QPF evaluation for the Super Bowl Event.  Verification points are PHL & ABE.  

 

ABE :  Actual snowfall  W/E / Temps

 

NAM Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  6.7”;  10.9” 

1/31:  4.7”;  6.3” (29,30,29);  6.7” (28, 29, 29); 1.2” (28, 32, 32)

2/1:   6.8” (28, 31, 30);  4.9" (29, 32, 29);  4.1”(29, 33, 33);   2.8”(29, 32, 34)

2/2:   1.4” (29, 32, 33)

 

SREF Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  5.9”;  6.1” 

1/31:  7.1”;  3.8” (28,29,32);  3.8” (28, 29, 32); 2.5” (28, 32, 33)

2/1:   3.6” (28, 33, 33);  3.8" (29, 33, 33);  3.2” (29,32,33);  3.5” (29, 33, 33)

2/2:   2.1” (29, 33, 34)

 

GFS/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/31:  (29, 32, 30);  (28, 32, 33);  (28, 33, 33); (28, 33, 32)

2/1:   (28, 33, 32);  (28, 33, 34);  (29, 33, 34); (29, 33, 34) 

2/2:  (29, 33, 33)

 

PHL :  Actual snowfall  W/E Temps

 

NAM Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  .9”/.80” (32,35);  .4”/1.13 (32,36) 

1/31:  .1”/1.10”(33, 38);  .4”/1.05” (32,38);  .2”/1.36” (32, 34); .3”/1.06” (32, 39)

2/1:   .6”/1.06” (31, 35);   .1"/1.14" (32, 36);  0”/1.11”  (33, 38);  0”/1.02” (33, 38)

2/2:    1.0”/ 1.11” (32, 39)

 

SREF Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  2.4/.70” (34,34);  1.3”/.85 (33,38) 

1/31:  1.6”/1.12”(33, 38);  .4”/.92” (33,40);  .5”/1.17” (33, 41); .3”/1.01” (32, 44)

2/1:   .5”/.98” (32, 41);  .2"/.97" (34, 42);   .1”/.97”  (34, 42);   .6”/1.07” (33, 43)

2/2:  .5”/1.10” (32, 40)

 

GFS W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  1.17” (32,32);  1.34” (33,37) 

1/31:  1.38”(34, 39);  1.43” (34,42);  1.49” (34, 42); 1.27” (34, 43)

2/1:   1.40” (33, 40); 1.07” (34,42);  1.30" (35, 45);   1.18” (35, 47)

2/2:   1.06” (34, 45)

[Rainshadow]

Here is a QPF evaluation for the Super Bowl Event.  Verification points are PHL & ABE.  

 

ABE :  Actual snowfall  3.9”  W/E 0.91”  Temps  (31, 34, 29)

 

NAM Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

ABE :  Actual snowfall  3.9”  W/E 0.91”  Temps  (31, 34, 29)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  6.7”;  10.9” 

1/31:  4.7”;  6.3” (29,30,29);  6.7” (28, 29, 29); 1.2” (28, 32, 32)

2/1:   6.8” (28, 31, 30);  4.9" (29, 32, 29);  4.1”(29, 33, 33);   2.8”(29, 32, 34)

2/2:   1.4” (29, 32, 33)

 

SREF Snow/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

ABE :  Actual snowfall  3.9”  W/E 0.91”  Temps  (31, 34, 29)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  5.9”;  6.1” 

1/31:  7.1”;  3.8” (28,29,32);  3.8” (28, 29, 32); 2.5” (28, 32, 33)

2/1:   3.6” (28, 33, 33);  3.8" (29, 33, 33);  3.2” (29,32,33);  3.5” (29, 33, 33)

2/2:   2.1” (29, 33, 34)

 

GFS/ 6z, 12z, 18z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

ABE :  Actual snowfall  3.9”  W/E 0.91”  Temps  (31, 34, 29)

1/31:  (29, 32, 30);  (28, 32, 33);  (28, 33, 33); (28, 33, 32)

2/1:   (28, 33, 32);  (28, 33, 34);  (29, 33, 34); (29, 33, 34) 

2/2:  (29, 33, 33)

 

 

 

 

PHL :  Actual snowfall  0.8”…..W/E 0.99” Temps  (34, 36)

 

NAM Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

Actual snowfall  0.8”…..W/E 0.99” Temps  (34, 36)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  .9”/.80” (32,35);  .4”/1.13 (32,36) 

1/31:  .1”/1.10”(33, 38);  .4”/1.05” (32,38);  .2”/1.36” (32, 34); .3”/1.06” (32, 39)

2/1:   .6”/1.06” (31, 35);   .1"/1.14" (32, 36);  0”/1.11”  (33, 38);  0”/1.02” (33, 38)

2/2:    1.0”/ 1.11” (32, 39)

 

SREF Snow/W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

Actual snowfall  0.8”…..W/E 0.99” Temps  (34, 36)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  2.4/.70” (34,34);  1.3”/.85 (33,38) 

1/31:  1.6”/1.12”(33, 38);  .4”/.92” (33,40);  .5”/1.17” (33, 41); .3”/1.01” (32, 44)

2/1:   .5”/.98” (32, 41);  .2"/.97" (34, 42);   .1”/.97”  (34, 42);   .6”/1.07” (33, 43)

2/2:  .5”/1.10” (32, 40)

 

GFS W/E/ 6z, 12z on 2^nd temps)  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

Actual snowfall  0.8”…..W/E 0.99” Temps  (34, 36)

1/30:  n/a”, n/a,  1.17” (32,32);  1.34” (33,37) 

1/31:  1.38”(34, 39);  1.43” (34,42);  1.49” (34, 42); 1.27” (34, 43)

2/1:   1.40” (33, 40); 1.07” (34,42);  1.30" (35, 45);   1.18” (35, 47)

2/2:   1.06” (34, 45)