Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'll be posting more in the days ahead. Tom dont know if you have Euro QPF? For now: Operational 18z NAM is the green line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'll be posting more in the days ahead. Tom dont know if you have Euro QPF? For now: Operational 18z NAM is the green line. Untitled.png Untitled2.png yup i can give you euro, the clipper will be in there to if thats fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 yup i can give you euro Tom, Thank-you. No rush. Its going to take a couple of days. Just PHL BTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 Tom, Thank-you. No rush. Its going to take a couple of days. Just PHL BTW. the clipper totals will be in there, if thats fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 the clipper totals will be in there, if thats fine Yes that is fine, you mean today's, not Thursday's? There never was a big enough break in the snow to split them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 1/25 0z 1.65 1/25 12z 1.54 1/26 0z .92 1/26 12z .68 the run on the 1/25 12z was the one that dropped like 2 ft in phl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes that is fine, you mean today's, not Thursday's? There never was a big enough break in the snow to split them. yea last night/todays clipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 yea last night/todays clipper Got it. Thank-you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted January 27, 2015 Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 1/25 0z 1.65 1/25 12z 1.54 1/26 0z .92 1/26 12z .68 the run on the 1/25 12z was the one that dropped like 2 ft in phl. 2.42 from the 12z on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 PHL Snow/QPF: NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”, .4.3”/.45” 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”, 3.4”/.33”, 11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60” 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82", 15.4"/1.26" SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08” 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”, 12.9”/1.36”, 10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78” 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”, 6.8"/0.69", 6.1"/.53", 5.4"/.45" GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, .33” / .87” 1/25: .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 1/26: .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17" Euro (00z, 12z) 1/24: n/a, 2.42" 1/25: 1.65", 1.54" 1/26: .92", .68" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerandWXTogether Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 at least the Euro had a consistent downward trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The ratios were indeed high here in NW Chesco ending up at 17:1 Final ratios for the 3.3" of snow melted down was 0.19" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The ratios were indeed high here in NW Chesco ending up at 17:1 Final ratios for the 3.3" of snow melted down was 0.19" For the clipper yes, which is usual. If we would of gotten that coastal I'm not sure how high they would of been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 For the clipper yes, which is usual. If we would of gotten that coastal I'm not sure how high they would of been. BTW this is the verification of the actual low position vs where the Euro & its ensemble members had it. Yes the surface position is at 06z while the forecast map is 12z. In addition to being too far west, this also makes the Euro too slow and this was the closest "latitude" match. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 BTW this is the verification of the actual low position vs where the Euro & its ensemble members had it. Yes the surface position is at 06z while the forecast map is 12z. In addition to being too far west, this also makes the Euro too slow and this was the closest "latitude" match. Untitled2.jpg The slower euro run was why it came so far west because it allowed for it to be captured. While the faster runs would of had a slower capture and allow for the low to escape east more so, which was correct. Even so, the euro ens mean really didn't disagree with the operational. Yes they weren't as wound up, but the mean at phl was over a ft at phl that sat 12z ens run. Just comes to my theory, miller B's Suuucckkkkk lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 A cleaner map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The slower euro run was why it came so far west because it allowed for it to be captured. While the faster runs would of had a slower capture and allow for the low to escape east more so, which was correct. Even so, the euro ens mean really didn't disagree with the operational. Yes they weren't as wound up, but the mean at phl was over a ft at phl that sat 12z ens run. Just comes to my theory, miller B's Suuucckkkkk lol I have to talk to one of our other mets again that showed me the post. There was a facebook post by John Krasting from GFDL that Euro ensemble members may be too tied to the operational run to show as much uncertainty as existed with this or any system. I dont know if I totally understand it this morning, maybe too tired still. I know on the map from Saturday it was along the northwest edge of the ensemble spectrum and I'm guessing when the Euro was really ramped on the weekend, ensemble means were less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 PHL Snow/QPF: Actual snow 1.2" / actual water equivalent from four CoCoRahs sites within PHL 0.17". NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”, .4.3”/.45” 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”, 3.4”/.33”, 11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60” 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82", 15.4"/1.26" SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08” 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”, 12.9”/1.36”, 10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78” 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”, 6.8"/0.69", 6.1"/.53", 5.4"/.45" GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, .33” / .87” 1/25: .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 1/26: .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17" Euro (00z, 12z) 1/24: n/a, 2.42" 1/25: 1.65", 1.54" 1/26: .92", .68" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 PHL Snow/QPF: Actual snow 1.2" / actual water equivalent from four CoCoRahs sites within PHL 0.17". NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”, .4.3”/.45” 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”, 3.4”/.33”, 11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60” 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82", 15.4"/1.26" SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08” 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”, 12.9”/1.36”, 10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78” 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”, 6.8"/0.69", 6.1"/.53", 5.4"/.45" GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/24: n/a, n/a, .33” / .87” 1/25: .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 1/26: .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17" Euro (00z, 12z) 1/24: n/a, 2.42" 1/25: 1.65", 1.54" 1/26: .92", .68" I wonder how misleading that 1.2 to .17 qpf is in temrs of ratios? I could see a scenario where it was just .01 QPF for a couple hours during the day monday and tuesday that was just to light to accumulat, but made ratios looks less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 This was on twitter RED: 12Z/26 ECMWF low location valid 18z Tue. BLACK: Actual location 15z. 120 miles further east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 I wonder how misleading that 1.2 to .17 qpf is in temrs of ratios? I could see a scenario where it was just .01 QPF for a couple hours during the day monday and tuesday that was just to light to accumulat, but made ratios looks less? There was a bit of rain on Sunday evening. The actual PHL ASOS pcpn amount was way low, so we estimated PHL. I looked at the four PHL Cocorahs site, btw their snow avg was 1.4 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2015 Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 'rents actually had lower ratios on Monday than Tuesday, about 10:1 Monday vs. 12.6:1 Tuesday. I assumed better lift helped a lot on Tuesday. Of course they were well east of Chester. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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