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1/26-1/27 Event QPF Verification Model Info In, w/e Tomorrow


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PHL Snow/QPF:

 

 NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”,  .4.3”/.45”

 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”,  3.4”/.33”,  11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60”

 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82",  15.4"/1.26"

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08”

 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”,  12.9”/1.36”,  10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78”

 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”,  6.8"/0.69",  6.1"/.53",   5.4"/.45"

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24:  n/a, n/a,  .33” / .87”

 1/25:   .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 

 1/26:  .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17"  

 

Euro  (00z, 12z)

 

1/24: n/a, 2.42"

1/25: 1.65", 1.54"

1/26: .92",  .68" 

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For the clipper yes, which is usual. If we would of gotten that coastal I'm not sure how high they would of been.

 

BTW this is the verification of the actual low position vs where the Euro & its ensemble members had it.  

 

Yes the surface position is at 06z while the forecast map is 12z.  In addition to being too far west, this also makes the Euro too

slow and this was the closest "latitude" match.

 

 

post-27-0-68353300-1422454355.jpg

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BTW this is the verification of the actual low position vs where the Euro & its ensemble members had it.  

 

Yes the surface position is at 06z while the forecast map is 12z.  In addition to being too far west, this also makes the Euro too

slow and this was the closest "latitude" match.

 

 

attachicon.gifUntitled2.jpg

 

The slower euro run was why it came so far west because it allowed for it to be captured. While the faster runs would of had a slower capture and allow for the low to escape east more so, which was correct. Even so, the euro ens mean really didn't disagree with the operational. Yes they weren't as wound up, but the mean at phl was over a ft at phl that sat 12z ens run. Just comes to my theory, miller B's Suuucckkkkk lol

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The slower euro run was why it came so far west because it allowed for it to be captured. While the faster runs would of had a slower capture and allow for the low to escape east more so, which was correct. Even so, the euro ens mean really didn't disagree with the operational. Yes they weren't as wound up, but the mean at phl was over a ft at phl that sat 12z ens run. Just comes to my theory, miller B's Suuucckkkkk lol

 

I have to talk to one of our other mets again that showed me the post.  There was a facebook post by John Krasting from GFDL that Euro ensemble members may be too tied to the operational run to show as much uncertainty as existed with this or any system. I dont know if I totally understand it this morning, maybe too tired still.  I know on the map from Saturday it was along the northwest edge of the ensemble spectrum and I'm guessing when the Euro was really ramped on the weekend, ensemble means were less?

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PHL Snow/QPF:  Actual snow 1.2" / actual water equivalent from four CoCoRahs sites within PHL 0.17".

 

 NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”,  .4.3”/.45”

 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”,  3.4”/.33”,  11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60”

 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82",  15.4"/1.26"

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08”

 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”,  12.9”/1.36”,  10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78”

 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”,  6.8"/0.69",  6.1"/.53",   5.4"/.45"

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24:  n/a, n/a,  .33” / .87”

 1/25:   .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 

 1/26:  .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17"  

 

Euro  (00z, 12z)

 

1/24: n/a, 2.42"

1/25: 1.65", 1.54"

1/26: .92",  .68" 

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PHL Snow/QPF:  Actual snow 1.2" / actual water equivalent from four CoCoRahs sites within PHL 0.17".

 

 NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24: n/a, n/a, 5.1”/.56”,  .4.3”/.45”

 1/25: 3.2”/ .29”,  3.4”/.33”,  11.0”/1.02”, 6.3”/.60”

 1/26: 6.2”/.61”, 7.8”/.73”, 9.7"/ .82",  15.4"/1.26"

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

 1/24: n/a. n/a, 4.4”/.59”, 10.5”/1.08”

 1/25: 7.3”/ .71”,  12.9”/1.36”,  10.2”/.96”, 8.3”/.78”

 1/26: 8.3”/ .78”,  6.8"/0.69",  6.1"/.53",   5.4"/.45"

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

 1/24:  n/a, n/a,  .33” / .87”

 1/25:   .91” / 1.09” / .43” / .55” 

 1/26:  .55”/ .60” / .33” / .17"  

 

Euro  (00z, 12z)

 

1/24: n/a, 2.42"

1/25: 1.65", 1.54"

1/26: .92",  .68" 

I wonder how misleading that 1.2 to .17 qpf is in temrs of ratios? I could see a scenario where it was just .01 QPF for a couple hours during the day monday and tuesday that was just to light to accumulat, but made ratios looks less?

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I wonder how misleading that 1.2 to .17 qpf is in temrs of ratios? I could see a scenario where it was just .01 QPF for a couple hours during the day monday and tuesday that was just to light to accumulat, but made ratios looks less?

 

There was a bit of rain on Sunday evening. The actual PHL ASOS pcpn amount was way low, so we estimated PHL.  I looked at the four PHL Cocorahs site, btw their snow avg was 1.4 inches.

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