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1/23-1/24 Model Snow, QPF and Temp Verification Mainly For PHL


Rainshadow
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Here is a QPF evaluation for the inaugural Miller A Event for the new GFS (and NAM, SREF too).  Verification point is PHL. Information for the NAM/SREF comes from SPC’s SREF Plume Web Site. GFS info from meteostar.  I just did a quick dabble for ABE, but could only grab the last four versions before it started to snow.

 

ABE Snowfall on 23rd-24th:  Actual snowfall 7.8” W/E .66”

 

NAM Snow/ w/e  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/23:  n/a”, /  5.3”/.57”,  5.8”/.85” / 6.4”/.71”

1/24:  5.5”/.67”

   
SREF Snow/ w/e  (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/23:  n/a” / 6.4”/.90, 5.4”/.93”,  6.0”/.82”

1/24:   6.4”/.77”

 

  

PHL 23rd-24th Event Total: 1.0” / .71” w/e / no ice

 

PHL Snow/QPF:

 NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 1/21: 4.1”/.98”, .4.2”/.66”

 1/22: 1.8”/ .46”,  3.0”/.59”,  2.9”/.44”, 1.1”/.61”

 1/23: 2.3”/ .74”,  2.9”/.80”,  2.4”/1.21”, 1.4”/.1.10”

 1/24: 0.5”/ .96”

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/21: 2.9”/.76”, 2.8”/.66”

 1/22: 2.8”/ .77”,  2.4”/.93”,  2.0”/.77”, 2.3”/1.00”

 1/23: 2.3”/ 1.07”, 1.5”/1.12”,  1.8”/1.29”, 1.6”/.1.17”

 1/24: 0.6”/ 1.07”

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 1/21:  .36” / .15”

1/22:   .29” / .85” / .73” / .91” 

1/23:  .94”/ .55” / .71” / .80”  

1/24:  .93”  

 

 

 

PHL Surface Temps and predicted 2m temps for 6z & 12z on the 24th.

Actual PHL temp 33F @ 6z, 34F @ 12z

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) temps for each forecast grouping are predicted 24/6z & 24/12z 2m temps

 

1/21: 30, 32 ;  29, 31

1/22: 29, 30;  30, 31;  30, 32;  31, 32

1/23: 32, 32;  32, 33;  33, 33;  32, 33

1/24 : 32, 33

 

 SREF

 (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) temps for each forecast grouping are predicted 24/6z & 24/12z 2m temps

1/21: 29, 31 ;  29, 30

1/22: 29, 31;  31, 32;  32, 32;  32, 32

1/23: 32, 33;  32, 33;  33, 34;  33, 33

1/24 : 33, 33

 

GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) temps for each forecast grouping are predicted 24/6z & 24/12z 2m temps

1/21: 32, 32 ;  32, 32

1/22: 33, 33;  33, 33;  32, 33;  31, 32

1/23: 32, 33;  33, 33;  33, 34;  33, 33

1/24 : 32, 33

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