Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is a QPF evaluation for the inaugural snow event for the new GFS (and NAM, SREF too). I worked this event on mids (maybe meds would have been better) and from the 00z/06z model run suites the GFS was correct in geographically emphasizing the sern part of our cwa for the heaviest pcpn first (Even before the ECMWF). The NAM’s FGEN forcing had a very good CWA geographical location starting with the 18z run on the 20th. ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14” was in the cross hairs PHL snowfall .05” / w/e .06” was not in the cross hairs SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA. ACY Snowfall: Actual snowfall 2.0” NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/20: 0” / 0” / 0” / 6.1” 1/21: 5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/20: 0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8” 1/21: 4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0” PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e. PHL Snow/QPF: NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: 0”/0”, .5”/.51” 1/19: .2”/ .29”, .7”/.10”, 0”/.07”, .2”/.04” 1/20: 0”/ .02”, .3”/.04”, 1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23” 1/21: 3.7”/ .36”, 4.4”/.43”, .9”/.14” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/18: .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29” 1/19: 1.7”/ .28”, 2.4”/.39”, 2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12” 1/20: .4”/ .08”, .8”/.10”, 2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44” 1/21: 4.2”/ .42”, 2.0”/.22”, 1.5.”/.16” GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: .10” / .09” 1/19: .12” / .15” / .32” / .06” 1/20: .17” / .01” / .05” / .01” 1/21: .09” / .22” / .22” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is a QPF evaluation for the inaugural snow event for the new GFS (and NAM, SREF too). I worked this event on mids (maybe meds would have been better) and from the 00z/06z model run suites the GFS was correct in geographically emphasizing the sern part of our cwa for the heaviest pcpn first (Even before the ECMWF). The NAM’s FGEN forcing had a very good CWA geographical location starting with the 18z run on the 20th. ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14” was in the cross hairs PHL snowfall .05” / w/e .06” was not in the cross hairs SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA. ACY Snowfall: Actual snowfall 2.0” NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/20: 0” / 0” / 0” / 6.1” 1/21: 5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/20: 0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8” 1/21: 4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0” PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e. PHL Snow/QPF: NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: 0”/0”, .5”/.51” 1/19: .2”/ .29”, .7”/.10”, 0”/.07”, .2”/.04” 1/20: 0”/ .02”, .3”/.04”, 1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23” 1/21: 3.7”/ .36”, 4.4”/.43”, .9”/.14” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/18: .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29” 1/19: 1.7”/ .28”, 2.4”/.39”, 2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12” 1/20: .4”/ .08”, .8”/.10”, 2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44” 1/21: 4.2”/ .42”, 2.0”/.22”, 1.5.”/.16” GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: .10” / .09” 1/19: .12” / .15” / .32” / .06” 1/20: .17” / .01” / .05” / .01” 1/21: .09” / .22” / .22” Tony, do you also have the GFS data for ACY? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 BTW, mids vs meds made me lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 BTW, mids vs meds made me lol Snowlurker, I do, I will post it later this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowlurker, added ACY ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14” was in the cross hairs PHL snowfall .05” / w/e .06” was not in the cross hairs SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA. ACY Snowfall: Actual snowfall 2.0” NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/20: 0” / 0” / 0” / 6.1” 1/21: 5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/20: 0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8” 1/21: 4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0” GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: .46” / .03” / .14" / .44" 1/19: .23” / .22” / .35” / .11” 1/20: .39” / .09” / .28” / .16” 1/21: .39” / .18” / .23" PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e. PHL Snow/QPF: NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: 0”/0”, .5”/.51” 1/19: .2”/ .29”, .7”/.10”, 0”/.07”, .2”/.04” 1/20: 0”/ .02”, .3”/.04”, 1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23” 1/21: 3.7”/ .36”, 4.4”/.43”, .9”/.14” SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) 1/18: .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29” 1/19: 1.7”/ .28”, 2.4”/.39”, 2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12” 1/20: .4”/ .08”, .8”/.10”, 2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44” 1/21: 4.2”/ .42”, 2.0”/.22”, 1.5.”/.16” GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) 1/18: .10” / .09” 1/19: .12” / .15” / .32” / .06” 1/20: .17” / .01” / .05” / .01” 1/21: .09” / .22” / .22" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wouldn't you say that the GFS did reasonably well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wouldn't you say that the GFS did reasonably well? There were correctly pointed initialization errors by wpc about moisture content with the gfs. So taking that into consideration and downward adjusting, I'd say yes. Would like to see more qpf balance, but most models have a somewhat wet bias. The nam is good with fgen placing, ice microphysics and better with 2m temps during pcpn, but until its wet bias gets corrected, I have no confidence in its qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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