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1/21 Clipper Event Model Verification for PHL & ACY


Bananashadow
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Here is a QPF evaluation for the inaugural snow event for the new GFS (and NAM, SREF too).

I worked this event on mids (maybe meds would have been better) and from the 00z/06z model run suites the GFS was correct in geographically emphasizing the sern part of our cwa for the heaviest pcpn first (Even before the ECMWF).  The NAM’s FGEN forcing had a very good CWA geographical location starting with the 18z run on the 20th.  

 

 

ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14”    was in the cross hairs

PHL snowfall .05” /  w/e .06”    was not in the cross hairs

 

SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA.

 

ACY Snowfall:  Actual snowfall 2.0”

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/20:  0” /  0” / 0” / 6.1”

1/21:  5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1”

   
SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/20:  0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8”

1/21:   4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0”

  

PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e.

 

PHL Snow/QPF:

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/18:  0”/0”, .5”/.51”

1/19: .2”/ .29”,  .7”/.10”,  0”/.07”, .2”/.04”

1/20: 0”/ .02”,  .3”/.04”,  1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23”

1/21: 3.7”/ .36”,  4.4”/.43”,  .9”/.14”

   
SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/18:  .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29”

1/19:  1.7”/ .28”,  2.4”/.39”,  2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12”

1/20: .4”/ .08”,  .8”/.10”,  2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44”

1/21: 4.2”/ .42”,  2.0”/.22”,  1.5.”/.16”

  

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/18:  .10” / .09”

1/19:   .12” / .15” / .32” / .06” 

1/20:  .17” / .01” / .05” / .01”  

1/21:  .09” / .22” / .22”

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Here is a QPF evaluation for the inaugural snow event for the new GFS (and NAM, SREF too).

I worked this event on mids (maybe meds would have been better) and from the 00z/06z model run suites the GFS was correct in geographically emphasizing the sern part of our cwa for the heaviest pcpn first (Even before the ECMWF). The NAM’s FGEN forcing had a very good CWA geographical location starting with the 18z run on the 20th.

ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14” was in the cross hairs

PHL snowfall .05” / w/e .06” was not in the cross hairs

SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA.

ACY Snowfall: Actual snowfall 2.0”

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/20: 0” / 0” / 0” / 6.1”

1/21: 5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1”

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/20: 0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8”

1/21: 4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0”

PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e.

PHL Snow/QPF:

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/18: 0”/0”, .5”/.51”

1/19: .2”/ .29”, .7”/.10”, 0”/.07”, .2”/.04”

1/20: 0”/ .02”, .3”/.04”, 1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23”

1/21: 3.7”/ .36”, 4.4”/.43”, .9”/.14”

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/18: .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29”

1/19: 1.7”/ .28”, 2.4”/.39”, 2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12”

1/20: .4”/ .08”, .8”/.10”, 2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44”

1/21: 4.2”/ .42”, 2.0”/.22”, 1.5.”/.16”

GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/18: .10” / .09”

1/19: .12” / .15” / .32” / .06”

1/20: .17” / .01” / .05” / .01”

1/21: .09” / .22” / .22”

Tony, do you also have the GFS data for ACY?

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Snowlurker, added ACY

 

ACY snowfall 2.0” / w/e .14”    was in the cross hairs

PHL snowfall .05” /  w/e .06”    was not in the cross hairs

 

SPC SREF web site keeps a good archive on PHL, but not any other sites in our CWA.

 

ACY Snowfall:  Actual snowfall 2.0”

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/20:  0” /  0” / 0” / 6.1”

1/21:  5.2” / 3.8” / 2.1”

   
SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/20:  0.4” / 0.7” / 1.8” / 2.8”

1/21:   4.3” / 3.5” / 3.0”

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

1/18:  .46” / .03” / .14" / .44"

1/19:   .23” / .22” / .35” / .11” 

1/20:  .39” / .09” / .28” / .16”  

1/21:  .39” / .18” / .23"

 

  

PHL Event Total: 0.5” / .06” w/e.

 

PHL Snow/QPF:

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

1/18:  0”/0”, .5”/.51”

1/19: .2”/ .29”,  .7”/.10”,  0”/.07”, .2”/.04”

1/20: 0”/ .02”,  .3”/.04”,  1.3”/.16”, 2.0”/.23”

1/21: 3.7”/ .36”,  4.4”/.43”,  .9”/.14”

   
SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

1/18:  .5”/.15”, 1.9”/.29”

1/19:  1.7”/ .28”,  2.4”/.39”,  2.0”/.40”, .6”/.12”

1/20: .4”/ .08”,  .8”/.10”,  2.8”/.32”, 4.3”/.44”

1/21: 4.2”/ .42”,  2.0”/.22”,  1.5.”/.16”

  

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

1/18:  .10” / .09”

1/19:   .12” / .15” / .32” / .06” 

1/20:  .17” / .01” / .05” / .01”  

1/21:  .09” / .22” / .22"

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Wouldn't you say that the GFS did reasonably well?

There were correctly pointed initialization errors by wpc about moisture content with the gfs. So taking that into consideration and downward adjusting, I'd say yes. Would like to see more qpf balance, but most models have a somewhat wet bias. The nam is good with fgen placing, ice microphysics and better with 2m temps during pcpn, but until its wet bias gets corrected, I have no confidence in its qpf.

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