1/12 Event Model Verification for PHL.

[Rainshadow]

QPF and 2m temperature (for 12z PHL on the 12th) comparison is below for the last event.   

The actual 12z PHL Temp was 34F (1C) and PHL total pcpn 0.59”.

 

Personally I find 2m temps work better in pcpn than not for PHL.

 

PHL 2M Temp:

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z in C)

1/9: -2, -2, 0, 1

1/10: 0, 0, 0, 0

1/11: 1, 0, 0, 0

1/12: 1, 1

 

GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z in F)

1/9:  30, 30, 31, 31

1/10: 29, 31, 32, 31

1/11: 31, 31, 32, 32

1/12: 33, 32

 

PHL QPF:

 

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/10:  .62” / .65” / .64” / .62”

1/11:  .50” / .29” / .76”* / .88”*

1/12: 1.01”* / .90”*

 

* Among the top 3 wettest SREF members

 
SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

1/10:  .36”/ .45” / .53” / .50”

1/11: ..45” / .53” / .62” / .60”

1/12: .84” / .72”

 

Operational GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

1/10: .53” / .51” / .48” / .32” 

1/11: .37” / .34” / .48” / .55”  

1/12:  .51” / .54”

[AdamPHLWx]

Got the same verification for the parallel GFS?

[Rainshadow]

Got the same verification for the parallel GFS?

 

Adam,

 

Unfortunately, I cant. Just viewing it, I am concerned that it may end up being too robust at times.  For all its foibles, the soon to no longer be op gfs once we get within 48hrs has been a little dry but overall solid with its PHL qpf this winter.

[AdamPHLWx]

Adam,

 

Unfortunately, I cant. Just viewing it, I am concerned that it may end up being too robust at times.  For all its foibles, the soon to no longer be op gfs once we get within 48hrs has been a little dry but overall solid with its PHL qpf this winter.

And in general, not just PHL, too

[Mitchg]

Overall the verification with the new GFS isn't that good considering it got an upgrade.