colonel_kurtz Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Early morning warm front rains: 0.58" - Tempest 0.62" - Ambient 0.55" - CoCo See what this afternoon / evening brings, HRRR says go west young man. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Anyone care to take a guesstimate of how much energy got sapped out of the atmosphere this morning and what's left for this afternoon/evening? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanvolz98 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 6 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said: Early morning warm front rains: 0.58" - Tempest 0.62" - Ambient 0.55" - CoCo See what this afternoon / evening brings, HRRR says go west young man. If I were a wagering man I’d say today will bust here. These days with low level clouds that don’t clear never seem to pan out. Also very few short range models look impressive at all. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted August 7 Author Report Share Posted August 7 7 minutes ago, Seanvolz98 said: If I were a wagering man I’d say today will bust here. These days with low level clouds that don’t clear never seem to pan out. Also very few short range models look impressive at all. CAMs target Baltimore & DC area, by the time it's gets here looks completely neutered. At least we got some decent rain this morning, AUG & SEPT can be precip struggle without tropical assistance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 19 minutes ago, cbelke said: Anyone care to take a guesstimate of how much energy got sapped out of the atmosphere this morning and what's left for this afternoon/evening? Not much, the day is still long. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 0.61" overnight 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Latest wind probs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 ...Southeast to the Upper OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough over the Lower OH Valley will advance across the northern Appalachians by this evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. The 12Z BNA sounding well-sampled this potentially volatile environment. To the north of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume, minimal inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms forming by midday centered on far southern OH across eastern KY ahead of the aforementioned trough. This activity will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated during the afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. From SPC update ^^ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 5% tor here and 10% for areas just to our sw - don’t see that very often Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanvolz98 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Wow DC area in 4/5 moderate risk. Very rare anywhere around these parts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 still socked in, everything soaked from 1" overnight, 72F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted August 7 Author Report Share Posted August 7 17 minutes ago, Seanvolz98 said: Wow DC area in 4/5 moderate risk. Very rare anywhere around these parts Almost to the day 30 yrs. ago, hopefully we don't reach that significant an event in the Mid-Atlantic today. https://www.weather.gov/akq/severe_Aug061993#:~:text=The most damage was to,injured and 3 were killed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Lou Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Not much, the day is still long. Oh yes. Remember back in early April the clouds and drizzle did not clear out until after 1pm. A couple hours of sunshine prior to the rigorous cold front then the wild weather later that afternoon and evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanvolz98 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Definitely a solid clearing of sun coming into DC/Balt. See if it makes it here…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november2003 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Seeing some clearing out my way in Lancaster, some sun has been poking out the last hour or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALurkerYouKnow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Still cloudy here but satellite looks like the clouds are going to move out and some sun will happen. When is the last time we had a setup like this besides derechos? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweav067 Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 It feels odd to me that forecasters feel fairly confident about severe storms today, but a Severe Thunderstorm Watch hasn't been put up yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 expecting some sun to poke out soon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALurkerYouKnow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Just now, mweav067 said: It feels odd to me that forecasters feel fairly confident about severe storms today, but a Severe Thunderstorm Watch hasn't been put up yet. They are coming. I'm pretty sure they will be tornado watches with extremely high wind categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 2 minutes ago, mweav067 said: It feels odd to me that forecasters feel fairly confident about severe storms today, but a Severe Thunderstorm Watch hasn't been put up yet. I would guess it’s because we’re still many hours away, but you of course do want to give people as much notice as possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALurkerYouKnow Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Mesoscale discussion for Baltimore, DC. The wording will be scary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Flight out of PHL at 7pm today. Over/under on cancelled? Seems like it will just squeeze before hitting (barring no delays, which I am expecting), but not going to be pleasant to fly through if we make it in the air. At least the airport is a decent place to watch the storms roll through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted August 7 Report Share Posted August 7 Got canceled literally as I was typing that out. Well...guess I'll be able to keep tabs on everything today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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