Captain Planet Posted July 9 Report Share Posted July 9 Hello everyone, I’m new here but I’m a huge weather data fanatic so I figured this board would be a good one even though I no longer live in PA. I’m originally from the Bradford area and lived in the McKean/Potter area most of my life. I’ve been studying BFD, Blue Hill, MA and many other northeast climate sites for a while now, and I’ve found some very interesting trends that seem to have decent correlations with future weather conditions, primarily for the northeast US. So I’m sure over the coming months, I will slowly release some of my research I’ve been working on as time permits. But I want this thread to be dedicated for any interesting weather stat you all have. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 So I guess I will lead it off. This data is for BFD. List of all developing ninos and their respective JJA monthly departure anomalies, their respective JJASON averages that led into their DJF averages. Not only is this the warmest July for all ninos so far at BFD. It is the warmest July on record period. So far it is currently +4.6 with the warmest July on record being +3.7 in 2020. ULTRA concerning! Warmest July for all developing Ninos is +1.4 set in 1977. The average July temp departure for the month in developing Ninos is -1.64 and there have been 19 years for the average data set, with this year being number 20 since 1958. Average July temp departure for the month in developing ninos is -2.1 since 1997 and there have been 8 years for that data set, with this year being number 9. So it appears that this nino isn’t behaving like a typical nino, which is climatologically concerning. While I understand it’s a small sample set, ninos have typically been cool in the Great Lakes regions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 My JJASON research from Bradford and Blue Hill data had a decent correlation with the northeast’s winter time temp averages DJF. I’ve found what appears to be some truth in the data, but for reasons not immediately known. IF JJASON departure averages came in -0.5 or colder, there was like something of an 80%+ chance of having a -DJF and vice versa provided that the ENSO wasn’t a strong/super nino +2 or greater SOI peak and their following winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 So this is for NYC (Central Park) where OCT is -1.5F or colder OR -OCT/-NOV any amount -> DJF . Excluding super El Niños. OCT NOV DJF 2018 -0.2 -3.6 0.0 2009 -2.9 -2.4 2008 -2.8 -2.1 -2.0 X 2006 -1.7 +0.2 2004 -1.9 -0.8 2003 -2.8 -3.8 2002 -2.7 -2.0 -5.0 2000 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 1999 -1.9 -0.1 X 1996 -1.5 -5.0 +1.6 1993 -2.0 -5.1 1992 -3.4 -1.5 -1.2 1988 -5.2 -0.3 1987 -4.1 -0.3 -1.6 1981 -3.5 -0.3 -3.6 1980 -2.7 -3.4 -3.6 1978 -3.0 -0.2 -3.6 1977 -3.0 -0.7 -6.0 1976 -5.0 -6.3 -7.8 X 1974 -3.8 +1.2 1969 -0.3 -1.6 -5.7 1967 -0.7 -5.5 -5.0 1966 -1.8 -2.2 1965 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 1964 -2.9 -2.9 1962 -0.5 -4.8 -6.3 1958 -2.4 -0.1 -5.4 X 1952 -2.2 +1.9 1945 -1.7 -0.4 -4.0 1944 -0.9 -2.0 -5.8 1943 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 1940 -4.2 -2.7 -3.3 1939 -0.6 -4.3 -4.6 1937 -2.8 -1.6 -1.9 X 1936 -0.5 -5.3 +1.6 1933 -1.8 -6.2 -7.2 1930 -2.4 -2.6 -2.5 1929 -3.3 -1.8 -0.9 1926 -2.8 -3.1 -4.2 1925 -7.3 -4.1 -4.2 1924 -0.9 -3.6 -2.8 1923 -1.9 -2.8 -1.8 1921 -1.6 -3.3 -4.8 1917 -4.9 -6.4 -10.5 1916 -0.2 -2.6 -4.5 1915 -0.3 -1.7 -3.8 1911 -1.9 -5.7 -5.6 1909 -3.0 -5.0 1907 -5.3 -1.9 -3.2 1906 -0.4 -2.1 -4.6 1904 -3.9 -5.6 -8.1 1901 -1.8 -8.3 -4.3 52 occurrences since 1900 , with 5 being wrong . 47/52 = 90% This signal isn’t the only way to get a cold winter, but this one is the strongest signal I have found for below average temperatures for DJF. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 9 Author Report Share Posted July 9 List of all -1F departures or lower Junes @ ALB from 1940 And their corresponding DJF (Excluding super El Niño years) JUNE DJF 1940 -3.4 -3.8 1944 -1.1 -6.3 1945 -2.7 -4.8 1946 -3.6 -2.0 1947 -3.6 -8.5 1948 -3.3 +1.9 X 1950 -2.3 -1.1 1951 -2.4 -0.4 1955 -1.4 -3.8 1956 -1.1 -2.1 1958 -6.3 -7.2 1960 -1.3 -6.4 1961 -1.4 -3.9 1963 -1.1 -5.8 1964 -1.9 -4.5 1965 -1.5 -2.0 1966 -1.0 -3.1 1968 -1.7 -4.2 1969 -2.4 -9.1 1970 -2.5 -6.9 1971 -2.1 -2.6 1974 -3.4 -0.7 1975 -3.3 -2.7 1977 -3.8 -5.1 1978 -4.1 -5.5 1979 -2.5 -2.1 1980 -5.1 -4.9 1981 -1.7 -6.1 1983 -1.2 -2.4 1984 -2.0 -0.4 1985 -6.2 -3.8 1986 -3.8 -2.5 1988 -3.3 -1.0 1990 -1.1 +1.7 X 1992 -3.2 -2.3 1993 -2.1 -7.5 1995 -1.5 -4.0 2000 -2.5 -2.7 2002 -1.6 -6.0 2003 -2.1 -4.3 2004 -2.4 -2.5 2009 -2.4 -0.6 40/42 years with a -1F or colder June saw a BN winter DJF. 95% ! Albany has not seen a favorable June (-1F or lower) since 2009 (excluding super ninos). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 9 Report Share Posted July 9 20 hours ago, Captain Planet said: So this is for NYC (Central Park) where OCT is -1.5F or colder OR -OCT/-NOV any amount -> DJF . Excluding super El Niños. OCT NOV DJF 2018 -0.2 -3.6 0.0 2009 -2.9 -2.4 2008 -2.8 -2.1 -2.0 X 2006 -1.7 +0.2 2004 -1.9 -0.8 2003 -2.8 -3.8 2002 -2.7 -2.0 -5.0 2000 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 1999 -1.9 -0.1 X 1996 -1.5 -5.0 +1.6 1993 -2.0 -5.1 1992 -3.4 -1.5 -1.2 1988 -5.2 -0.3 1987 -4.1 -0.3 -1.6 1981 -3.5 -0.3 -3.6 1980 -2.7 -3.4 -3.6 1978 -3.0 -0.2 -3.6 1977 -3.0 -0.7 -6.0 1976 -5.0 -6.3 -7.8 X 1974 -3.8 +1.2 1969 -0.3 -1.6 -5.7 1967 -0.7 -5.5 -5.0 1966 -1.8 -2.2 1965 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 1964 -2.9 -2.9 1962 -0.5 -4.8 -6.3 1958 -2.4 -0.1 -5.4 X 1952 -2.2 +1.9 1945 -1.7 -0.4 -4.0 1944 -0.9 -2.0 -5.8 1943 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 1940 -4.2 -2.7 -3.3 1939 -0.6 -4.3 -4.6 1937 -2.8 -1.6 -1.9 X 1936 -0.5 -5.3 +1.6 1933 -1.8 -6.2 -7.2 1930 -2.4 -2.6 -2.5 1929 -3.3 -1.8 -0.9 1926 -2.8 -3.1 -4.2 1925 -7.3 -4.1 -4.2 1924 -0.9 -3.6 -2.8 1923 -1.9 -2.8 -1.8 1921 -1.6 -3.3 -4.8 1917 -4.9 -6.4 -10.5 1916 -0.2 -2.6 -4.5 1915 -0.3 -1.7 -3.8 1911 -1.9 -5.7 -5.6 1909 -3.0 -5.0 1907 -5.3 -1.9 -3.2 1906 -0.4 -2.1 -4.6 1904 -3.9 -5.6 -8.1 1901 -1.8 -8.3 -4.3 52 occurrences since 1900 , with 5 being wrong . 47/52 = 90% This signal isn’t the only way to get a cold winter, but this one is the strongest signal I have found for below average temperatures for DJF. Yeah I had a tech attachment published with this relationship for NYC with the base line years 1900-1987. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 9 Report Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: Yeah I had a tech attachment published with this relationship for NYC with the base line years 1900-1987. It'd be really cool if old tech attachments like that were on-line somewhere, but that's probably hoping for way too much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 9 Report Share Posted July 9 29 minutes ago, famartin said: It'd be really cool if old tech attachments like that were on-line somewhere, but that's probably hoping for way too much. If I still have it, I will scan it in. But I have to try to find it somewhere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 6 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Yeah I had a tech attachment published with this relationship for NYC with the base line years 1900-1987. 6 hours ago, famartin said: It'd be really cool if old tech attachments like that were on-line somewhere, but that's probably hoping for way too much. I just recently attended the AMS conference in Denver earlier this year and talked with a few people about my JJASON -> DJF research. Sadly I do not have much time on my hands as this is primarily a hobby ever since I went to Penn State for Earth and MS almost 15 years ago and don’t really have the ability to get more eyes on it to get anything published. When most of the east coast stations are -0.5F or colder for JJASON (Excluding Strong ninos and year after), there was a large chance of a -DJF for the general northeastern locations. I’ve ran composite maps that show the trends. I’ve gone through Blue Hill, Albany, Bradford (BFD) and other locations and they all show what appears to be a general correlation. Just like some 80% of the top 18 warmest JJASON years yielded a +DJF. Last year I forecasted a +DJF for this past winter due to my JJASON numbers and it was correct. I will slowly post more information soon just so you guys can comb over it and maybe offer up an explanation because at the moment I don’t really know of a causation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 List of years in the top 18 warmest JJASON since 1990 and their corresponding DJF composite maps. Only years that were cold DJF despite a warm JJASON were 2017 and 1995. It’s hard to ignore what seems to be some relationship. This is for BFD as a single data point I know, but it seems the signal represents the area quite well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 Here are the years included in the top 39 coldest JJASONs on record at BFD (since 1990). Trend is even colder if you include the years prior to 1990. The years listed are all years with JJASONs colder than -0.5F . Note, there hasn’t been a year since 2014 that has had a JJASON finish below -0.5 , and it’s not a coincidence that we haven’t had a great winter since then. Although 2017 was the closest to a respectable winter (temp departure wise). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 I think the data is pretty clear. If you want a cold winter “anomalously BN (-DJF)” , you better root for BFD and Blue Hill to have a JJASON that is -0.5 or colder and not be a super nino or the following year after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 10 Report Share Posted July 10 11 hours ago, famartin said: It'd be really cool if old tech attachments like that were on-line somewhere, but that's probably hoping for way too much. I easily found my other two, the Gloria and the Atlantic City crush job that miss NYC event. Still looking for that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 10 Report Share Posted July 10 This is the rolling last 30 years for October & November as stand alone months. These tables have not been updated for last winter (which was warm). So we had a conflict in which a cold (by the last 30 year standards) October portended a colder winter and a warm November (by any standard, let alone the last 30 years) portended a warmer winter. November won. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Planet Posted July 10 Author Report Share Posted July 10 @famartin or any met here think the JJASON -> DJF could mean anything? The composite maps appear to be fairly strong when breaking down the anomalies on a 6 month departure average and their respective winter temperature anomalies for the northeast and maybe a few other locations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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