ErieWX Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: New Cansips for June looks a lot like that EPS map. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023060100&fh=0 If want another crummy winter, don't look at the Cansip Dec-March forecast (fwiw, this is either the 3rd or 4th Cansip forecast in a row for a great Nino winter.) The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, ErieWX said: The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, ErieWX said: The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 It always does and doesn't adjust until the end of the preceeding forecast month. It really is useless. It has advertised the Cansip winter pattern a couple of times in the past few months, but it always reverts back to torch worldwide for anything more than a 1 month forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 1 Author Report Share Posted June 1 30 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Ninos are weird. A weak to moderate nino means you can get either split flow regime or a huge PNA ridge right on top of the west coast with the Aleutian low like we had in 14-15. A very strong Nino suppresses that ridge with a raging pac jet and floods North America with warm air. If you’re lucky though you can get that to phase. 2016 had that super Nino and a huge blizzard in PHL in an otherwise torch winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 2 Report Share Posted June 2 10 hours ago, susqushawn said: Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Winter sucks…. I’m starting to really enjoy warm weather. The past few weeks have been beautiful. I’m don’t with 40’s/rain for 4 months 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 8 Author Report Share Posted June 8 Per NOAA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 10 Report Share Posted June 10 On 6/8/2023 at 1:00 PM, ErieWX said: Per NOAA. Did anyone notice MEI calculation for April/May was an unimpressive -.01? In fact the March/April was -.04. Interestingly, those last 2 MEI figures match 02/03. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ In any event and notwithstanding the Twitter hysteria, anyone hoping/expecting a strong or Super may want to step back a bit since all strong and Super had well positive MEI readings by April/May unlike this year. EDIT: In order to see the MEI values on that link, click on "Overview" below the graph, then choose "MEI.v2 Values." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 11 Author Report Share Posted June 11 21 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Did anyone notice MEI calculation for April/May was an unimpressive -.01? In fact the March/April was -.04. Interestingly, those last 2 MEI figures match 02/03. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ In any event and notwithstanding the Twitter hysteria, anyone hoping/expecting a strong or Super may want to step back a bit since all strong and Super had well positive MEI readings by April/May unlike this year. EDIT: In order to see the MEI values on that link, click on "Overview" below the graph, then choose "MEI.v2 Values." That’s true but remember we are coming off a triple Nina, so all of that pent up heat in the west pacific warm pool is getting unleashed like a dam bursting. A strong nino is still on the table imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 12 Report Share Posted June 12 22 hours ago, ErieWX said: That’s true but remember we are coming off a triple Nina, so all of that pent up heat in the west pacific warm pool is getting unleashed like a dam bursting. A strong nino is still on the table imo. I wouldn't be surprised by one tri-monthly reaching strong, but something in the +1.5-1.9C range vs. +2C or higher. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 13 Report Share Posted June 13 23 hours ago, Mitchnick said: I wouldn't be surprised by one tri-monthly reaching strong, but something in the +1.5-1.9C range vs. +2C or higher. Then "all" we would need is a SSW and the door is ajar for a 1957-58 or 2009-10 hat trick chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 The pacific in nino zone is a blow torch right now and these things get stronger as we had towards winter. I’d say strong or super nino on table easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 Speaking of 2009, here's a comparison of Pacific subsurface temps then and now. This year and 2009 are fairly similar with warm water subsurface basinwide, warmest in the east Pac. Offers hope of getting a more west-based pattern than current. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 17 hours ago, tombo82685 said: The pacific in nino zone is a blow torch right now and these things get stronger as we had towards winter. I’d say strong or super nino on table easily. What constitutes a super nino to you? Strong, traditionally +1.6C or higher 1 believe, is almost a given imho. But the MEI says if it was going strong, MEI would be solidly positive by now and it isn't. Hence my statement above that a strong is "almost" a given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 97-98 coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 37 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: What constitutes a super nino to you? Strong, traditionally +1.6C or higher 1 believe, is almost a given imho. But the MEI says if it was going strong, MEI would be solidly positive by now and it isn't. Hence my statement above that a strong is "almost" a given. Isn’t the MEI a 3 month average? I’m thinking 2+ for winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 On 6/10/2023 at 12:46 PM, Mitchnick said: Did anyone notice MEI calculation for April/May was an unimpressive -.01? In fact the March/April was -.04. Interestingly, those last 2 MEI figures match 02/03. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ In any event and notwithstanding the Twitter hysteria, anyone hoping/expecting a strong or Super may want to step back a bit since all strong and Super had well positive MEI readings by April/May unlike this year. EDIT: In order to see the MEI values on that link, click on "Overview" below the graph, then choose "MEI.v2 Values." 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: What constitutes a super nino to you? Strong, traditionally +1.6C or higher 1 believe, is almost a given imho. But the MEI says if it was going strong, MEI would be solidly positive by now and it isn't. Hence my statement above that a strong is "almost" a given. 2 months on the site I posted above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 14 Report Share Posted June 14 51 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: 2 months on the site I posted above. The reason why that could be masked a bit is if the warming really didn't get going until late May into june, and April was still solidly negative it could skew it. There is no denying, the oceans right now are bath water. These outlooks posted are a crap shoot and surface water temps can be affected pretty quickly in wind patterns, but to me it just smells like a strong nino, but we will see, I hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 15 Report Share Posted June 15 16 hours ago, tombo82685 said: The reason why that could be masked a bit is if the warming really didn't get going until late May into june, and April was still solidly negative it could skew it. There is no denying, the oceans right now are bath water. These outlooks posted are a crap shoot and surface water temps can be affected pretty quickly in wind patterns, but to me it just smells like a strong nino, but we will see, I hope I'm wrong. Can't disagree with much of that, but I think it comes in as strong in 3.4, just not super. What it means for us is obviously dependent on where the for forcing sets up. Just east of the dateline is our wheelhouse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15 Report Share Posted June 15 14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Can't disagree with much of that, but I think it comes in as strong in 3.4, just not super. What it means for us is obviously dependent on where the for forcing sets up. Just east of the dateline is our wheelhouse. Good thing about the super Nino is it will reset the warm ocean temperatures in areas that help us. MJO might be very favorable for us come winter 24-25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 15 Author Report Share Posted June 15 Can still score a mid Atlantic blizzard during supers even if the winter is warm, it’s just usually a one hit wonder. 2015-2016 and 1982-1983 were supers with a blizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 15 Report Share Posted June 15 52 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good thing about the super Nino is it will reset the warm ocean temperatures in areas that help us. MJO might be very favorable for us come winter 24-25 But it can also create a very strong pacific jet too ala 15/16 that blow torches the whole country like that dec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 15 Report Share Posted June 15 35 minutes ago, ErieWX said: Can still score a mid Atlantic blizzard during supers even if the winter is warm, it’s just usually a one hit wonder. 2015-2016 and 1982-1983 were supers with a blizzard. Yup, have to time everything right. 15–16 was a crap winter but there was a 2 week favorable windows with a -nao that scored. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15 Report Share Posted June 15 23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: But it can also create a very strong pacific jet too ala 15/16 that blow torches the whole country like that dec The following winter I think will be better….23/24 I believe is toast with the very strong pacific jet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 15 Author Report Share Posted June 15 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The following winter I think will be better….23/24 I believe is toast with the very strong pacific jet Yeah would think we need a neutral or weak Nino for any chance at widespread sustained cold in the east, like we saw in 13-14 and 14-15. Seems like recent years have either swung heavily to Nina or Nino since then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 16 Report Share Posted June 16 PDF-corrected CFS has backed-off nino strength in past month or so. Was borderline super/strong. Would take. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.