The GFS 100F or Bust 2023 Thread. Some Serious Conclusions On Page 5. Euro Took A Step Back, GFS Is A Thermal Wasteland In La La Land.

[Rainshadow]

Some memes have a long shelf life.

 

 

[Rainshadow]

Yes ladies and gents, it has begun with the 06z model run.

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes would be an all-time record high for June)

 

 

[Rainshadow]

Here are the final stats for last year:

Some of the lowlights.

Forecasted 100F or higher 137 times this year.  (Euro 11 times)

Forecasted 100F or higher 48 times within 10 days, more than twice the rate of the Euro.

Forecasted a high of 99F....95 times this summer or more than the total number of 100F or higher forecasts it predicted the two previous summers combined (87).   Euro had 7 forecasts of 99F (3 of them were correct).  12 of the 95 GFS forecasts of 99F were correct.

The GFS twice forecast consecutive day streaks of 100F or more (one 5 days in a row and that oh so special 12z run on 7/26 of 7 days in a row) that would have broken the all-time record.  The still standing record is 3 days in a row.  That 7/26/12z run also predicted the greatest number of 100F days for any given summer in PHL, the still standing record for that is 5 days in 1988.

The GFS forecast PHL to set or tie monthly all-time record highs on seven separate days.  It so happens 5 of those days would have also tied the all-time record high for Philadelphia. 

The calendar shows the highest predicted maximum temperature by any run of the GFS and the sounding runs for the ECMWF.  So, the GFS forecast PHL to reach 100F or higher on 45 different days, the European 5.

Mind you just in 2020, The European forecasted PHL to reach 100F or higher 18 times.  The GFS forecast PHL to reach 100F or higher 39 times.  Given the GFS goes out to day 16 and I was only including Euro sounding runs, it meant the GFS really forecast 100F or higher less often than the Euro. Some upgrades are for the better, some not so much.

[Rainshadow]

The GFS virus is more contagious than the measles.

 GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes would be an all-time record high for June)

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

[Rainshadow]

These are the calendar day highs for PHL on any day that the GFS or Euro predicted 100F last year.

 

[Rainshadow]

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

[Rainshadow]

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

[Rainshadow]

 

 

 

[Rainshadow]

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

 

 

Meanwhile, Kansas says, hold my beer PHL.

 

[Rainshadow]

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

 

 

 

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperature in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

6/8/18z.......100F on 6/19  (Good to see 18z GFS rounding into shape)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8  (not 90F) &  99F on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 101F on 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

6/8/18z.......100F on 6/19  (Good to see 18z GFS rounding into shape)

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Make that 10 forecasts...

 

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 101F on 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

6/8/18z.......100F on 6/19  (Good to see 18z GFS rounding into shape)

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z....100F on 6/27  (now the "winning" run.) 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

 

 

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F)  on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 101F on 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

6/8/18z.......100F on 6/19  (Good to see 18z GFS rounding into shape)

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z....100F on 6/27  (now the "winning" run.) 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F)  on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

6/7/18z........101F on 6/18 & 101F on 6/19 (Congratulations on being higher than every single ensemble member, you go outlier, you go)

6/8/18z.......100F on 6/19  (Good to see 18z GFS rounding into shape)

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27  (now the "winning" run.) 

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3 (Welcome to the party, July)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F on 6/24, 6/25 & 6/26

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21  

6/7/18z........101F  (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F  (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27  (now the "winning" run.) 

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3 (Welcome to the party, July)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F on 6/24, 6/25 & 6/26

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Even in the land of guaranteed 100s, how many of these are too hot?

 

[Rainshadow]

On 6/6/2023 at 5:33 PM, Rainshadow said:

GFS

5/30/06z......101F on 6/13 & 104F on 6/14 (Yes this would be an all-time record high for June)

6/3/06z........101F on 6/17 (perfect can kick)

6/6/12z........101F on 6/19 & 100F on 6/21 (an almost can kick)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F on 6/18

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F on 6/8 & 6/9

 

 

Meanwhile, Kansas says, hold my beer PHL.

 

Pepperidge Farm remembers.  No climate site in Topeka's CWA has reached 100F.

 

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F)  on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F  (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F  (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)  

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F on 6/24, 6/25 & 6/26

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

 

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F)  on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F  (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F  (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F on 6/24 (kick that can, kick that can, kick that can)

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)  

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F on 6/24, 6/25 & 6/26

6/23/06z...99F on 7/5

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

 

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F) on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F (82F) on 6/24 

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)  

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F (82F)  on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F (82F) on 6/24, 99F on 6/25 & 99F on 6/26

6/23/06z...99F on 7/5

6/25/06z...99F on 7/5

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Things are heating up now, GFS looks like it is taxiing down that runway.... 

 

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F) on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F (82F) on 6/24 

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)  

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F (82F)  on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F (82F) on 6/24, 99F on 6/25 & 99F on 6/26

6/23/06z...99F on 7/5

6/25/06z...99F on 7/5

6/26/00z...99F on 7/8

 

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

Things are heating up now, GFS looks like it is taxiing down that runway.... 

 

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F) on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F (82F) on 6/24 

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)

6/26/18z.......101F on 7/12  (Hey at least it was in 2nd and not 105F)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F (82F)  on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F (82F) on 6/24, 99F (87F)  on 6/25 & 99F (87F)  on 6/26

6/23/06z...99F on 7/5

6/25/06z...99F on 7/5

6/26/00z...99F on 7/8

 

The 00z 6/27 ensemble run had at least on ensemble member reaching 100F on 10 consecutive days. The Canadian had 2 days, the Euro none.

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9

[Rainshadow]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:35 AM, Rainshadow said:

Even in the land of guaranteed 100s, how many of these are too hot?

 

Highs on the 24th, 25th & 26th : 99F, 101F & 101F.  DFW NWS forecast high today 102F.

[Rainshadow]

Things are heating up now, GFS looks like it is taxiing down that runway.... 

 

Actual maximum temperatures in parentheses (      )

GFS

5/30/06z......101F (79F) on 6/13 & 104F (77F) on 6/14 (Yes this would have been an all-time record high for June; close only off by 27F)

6/3/06z........101F (80F) on 6/17

6/6/12z........101F (87F) on 6/19 & 100F (R66F) on 6/21  (On the day the GFS forecasts 100F, PHL breaks a daily low maximum temp record)

6/7/18z........101F (80F) on 6/18 & 101F (87F) on 6/19 (Sometimes being higher than every single ensemble member does not work)

6/8/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/19   

6/10/00z.....100F (82F) on 6/24 

6/12/06z.....100F on 6/27   

6/17/18z.......100F on 7/3  (Welcome to the party, July)

6/22/00z.......100F on 7/2 (Higher than EVERY ensemble member, again)

6/26/18z.......101F on 7/12  (Hey at least it was in 2nd and not 105F)

 

Honorable mentions

5/31/12z....99F (79F)  on 6/15

6/3/06z.....99F  (80F) on 6/18

6/16/06z....99F (82F)  on 6/24

6/16/12z....99F (82F) on 6/24, 99F (87F)  on 6/25 & 99F (87F)  on 6/26

6/23/06z...99F on 7/5

6/25/06z...99F on 7/5

6/26/00z...99F on 7/8

6/28/00z...99F on 7/12

 

The 00z 6/27 ensemble run had at least one ensemble member reaching 100F on 10 consecutive days. The Canadian had 2 days, the Euro none.

The 00z 6/28 ensemble run had at least one ensemble member reaching 100F on 10 days. The Canadian & Euro (51 member display) had two.

 

ECMWF

Honorable mentions

5/31/00z....99F (76F) on 6/8 & 99F (74F) on 6/9