colonel_kurtz Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 Tough to go against the boilerplate above to much above warmth during the summer but there has been some rumblings a something maybe closer to normal. A continuation of the cool & dry couplet during met summer would really be noteworthy in this day & age. For the time being where do I sign up for this? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 11 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said: Tough to go against the boilerplate above to much above warmth during the summer but there has been some rumblings a something maybe closer to normal. A continuation of the cool & dry couplet during met summer would really be noteworthy in this day & age. For the time being where do I sign up for this? Any day that is not above normal, is a win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 No turning on the A/C any time soon here. Hardly even a puff of clouds in the 7 day forecast. Flow potentially coming from BC in June. I can’t find anything not to like about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 27 Report Share Posted May 27 00z/27th Ensemble Comparison 5/27-6/11. Normal 850mb temp around +12C. Our First 90F Of The Year To Start Meteorological Summer; But After That A Cooler Looking Pattern Is Still Outlooked... 5/20 Outlook: Whether its tropical or hybrid I'd be surprised if all of the precipitation from this system stays south of Mount Holly's CWA. Time to hit Tom for that raise and to go to Rothman Orthopedic for that shoulder pain. In the near term our sensible weather gets iffier into Tuesday before the easy baked oven starts moving east. Chances are PHL gets away with no precip, but Delmarva no. Also increasing onshore flow from 50s to around 60 water temps, sounds like a typical Memorial Day Weekend for the shore. Then again, we could be in Norfolk. First of all the GEPS has been pretty bad with our patterns this entire month and until it can prove otherwise, I lean EPS/GEFS. The Rex Block which is on its way to successfully salvaging most (if not all) of this Memorial Day Weekend is outlook to weaken. Another Rex blocking pattern is outlooked to develop in the northwest Atlantic. This is part and parcel of a retrograding pattern still outlooked to occur across North America. Before there is thermal gain, there is pain as the toasting of Canada air mass combined with weak 500mb flow gives us a high confidence likelihood of seeing 90F either Thu and/or Fri just in time for the start of meteorological summer. This is later than last year btw. But for now, it is not sustainable as an anomalous for early June +PNA 500mb pattern is still outlooked to take hold. The GEPS has the least amplitude SD and likely reason it remains the torchiest. Even with shorter summer wavelengths, this still remains too much of a good (amplitude) thing to believe our weather will not be at or below normal the rest of the first week of June, especially with those minimum temperatures. One can say even with the washed out/dollar cost averaged look as we get deeper into la la land still suggest western NOAM ridging and eastern NOAM troffing (as the teleconnections would infer), so call me giddy optimistic that once we get past June 2nd, our summer is not going to get off to a torch(erous) start. Precipwise it does not look great, can't have everything. Tropics: Favorable Divergence Aloft for now before the MJO is suppose to leave the building. I don't know if I have ever seen a MVentrice outlook look this dormant before. GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 27th, (now split) above normal anomalies May 28th & May 29th, (new) near normal anomalies May 30th, (ends day sooner) above normal anomalies May 31st thru Jun 3rd, below normal anomalies later Jun 4th into Jun 11th (end of run). Local torch peak 6/2. GEPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 28th, (now split) above normal anomalies later May 28th into May 30th, (new) near normal anomalies night of May 30th, (ends 1.5 days sooner) above normal anomalies May 31st into Jun 6th, near normal anomalies Jun 7th, above normal anomalies Jun 8th, near normal anomalies Jun 9th, above normal anomalies Jun 10th & Jun 11th (end of run). Even hotter local torch peak 6/2. EPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 27th, (now split) above normal anomalies May 28th into May 30th, (new) near normal anomalies day of May 30th, (ends 0.5 day sooner) above normal anomalies May 31st into Jun 3rd, (much shorter) below normal anomalies Jun 4th, (new) near normal anomalies Jun 5th thru Jun 9th, above normal anomalies Jun 10th. Local torch peak night of 6/1. NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jun 4th thru Jun 11th. Slight confidence of above normal temperatures right around Philadelphia. Above normal confidence crashed. Teleconnections: GEFS Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 12; PNA Day 14; AO Day 11 Recent Verification Tendency: More Negative NAO, More Positive PNA, Neutral AO GEFS: +EPO thru 5/31 (day more); neg 6/1-6/11 (-4SD 6/6) -PNA thru 5/31 (same); pos 6/1-6/11 (+4.25SD 6/4) +NAO thru 5/29 (same); neg 5/30-6/11 GEPS: +EPO thru 5/31 (day more); neg 5/31-6/11 -PNA thru 5/31 (same); pos 6/1-6/11 (+4SD 6/4) +NAO thru 5/30 (same); neg 5/31-6/11 EPS: +EPO thru 6/1 (2 days more); neg 6/2-6/10 -PNA thru 5/31 (same); pos 6/1-6/10 (+4.75SD 6/4) +NAO thru 5/30 (day more); neg 5/31-6/10 WPO: Positive thru 5/28; Second wave of positive joined the EPS thru most of period MJO: (Vel Potential & Convection) Most Active Phase 7, strung out to Phase 1 GEFS: Phase 7 to Phase 8 to Phases 1 & 2 COD. EPS: Phase 7 into COD thru Phase 2. GEPS: Phase 7 to Phase 8 to Phases 1 & 2 COD. (Run ends 6/9 EPS, 6/10 others) MVentrice: Weak Phase 1 to Weak Phase 2 to I got nothing. Strat: NASA Wave 1: 30th -> 70th -> 10th -> 40th -> 10th Percentile Wave 2: 90th -> 1st -> 50th Percentile FU Berlin, back for next winter? SPV: Euro (thru day 10): See Ya Next Winter. GFS (thru day 15): See Ya Next Winter. SPV NASA 10 days: See Ya Next Winter. Ensembles 15 days: See Ya Next Winter. NAM: Trop cool shot still there 6/4-6/5 **************** June Centered ******************* 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 Here are my summer 2023 analogs. I hope it is closer than the barn burner bust for lats summer. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireguy286 Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 There it is! The GFS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Here are my summer 2023 analogs. I hope it is closer than the barn burner bust for lats summer. One thing that will put most analogs to the test are global SSTs running in the toaster nearly everywhere. Not sure if we have precedent for that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 2 hours ago, fireguy286 said: There it is! The GFS! Slacker. Last year the 18z run on May 20th had the first predicted 100F day. Then again, not bad by the GFS to make up for it by forecasting an all-time June record high. There you go GFS, there you go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 2 hours ago, ErieWX said: One thing that will put most analogs to the test are global SSTs running in the toaster nearly everywhere. Not sure if we have precedent for that I know. That is why until something changes I no longer can see any summer being below normal (even though the normals keep on rising). The best we can hope for is to avoid a top _____ a year longer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icicleman Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 54 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Slacker. Last year the 18z run on May 20th had the first predicted 100F day. Then again, not bad by the GFS to make up for it by forecasting an all-time June record high. There you go GFS, there you go. I guess they could improve their 15-day "skill" if they bounded their predictions (so as to not forecast record highs) or applied a low pass (smoothing) filter or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 Through d10 on the gfs: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 57 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Through d10 on the gfs: Ugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted May 30 Report Share Posted May 30 Whoa look at the 12z Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 I think rain chances for Saturday are there. Pwats jump to near 1.5, the entire column is nearly saturated, upper level energy has been trending westward and timing is during peak heating or just a bit before. I could see a quick squally line with some thunder roll through in an unusual NE to SW fashion. Behind that temps plummet 20° post haste Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 10 hours ago, susqushawn said: I think rain chances for Saturday are there. Pwats jump to near 1.5, the entire column is nearly saturated, upper level energy has been trending westward and timing is during peak heating or just a bit before. I could see a quick squally line with some thunder roll through in an unusual NE to SW fashion. Behind that temps plummet 20° post haste The chance is legit. After that models say we don't do retrograding systems well. So we either torch or it never stops raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 Gefs have quite a rainy outlook for the weekend with an aggressive closed low over us. Given some gefs indies take the closed low SW into the central Plains I'll side with a compromise. Eps and geps trending west but not nearly as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 18 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Gefs have quite a rainy outlook for the weekend with an aggressive closed low over us. Given some gefs indies take the closed low SW into the central Plains I'll side with a compromise. Eps and geps trending west but not nearly as much. I don't recall exactly the retrogression rule of thumb (I think it's 15 deg of longitude), but anything beyond that becomes the theatre of the absurb. I am about to start one of those outlooks, last one the NAO was going negative, so a blocky pattern does sound logical, just some models (cough) don't know when to say enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 19 hours ago, icicleman said: I guess they could improve their 15-day "skill" if they bounded their predictions (so as to not forecast record highs) or applied a low pass (smoothing) filter or something? One can't put Pandora back in the box, the wiser move would have been to stop displaying (or stop the run) deterministic maps at day 10 like the Euro & GGEM do. I know then the ensemble run control would get more social media time, but it is a product that is not in your face on practically every numerical modeling site and may cut down on some twitterologist posts. Meanwhile back on planet Earth... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 31 Report Share Posted May 31 00z/31st Ensemble Comparison 5/31-6/15. Normal 850mb temp around +12.5C. Retrograding Pattern Keeps Us Cooler Than Normal After Jun 1st; More Zonal Look For 2nd Week Of June? I still believe PHL hits the first 90F of the year on Friday, that is a well cooked air mass west of us and the antecedent dry conditions make it that much easier. After that the unraveling of the Rex Block leads to a retrogression/reformation of the familiar +PNA ridge once again to western NOAM. Plus 4 to 5 SD(s) nothing to sneeze at. Wavelengths are shorter during the summer and one has to look at whether it's an index cool look or the real deal. The 168hr EPS looks like the real deal. The OP GFS takes the retrogression even farther west which looks overdone as far as precipitation potential, but all the ensembles have us cooler than normal. Even the GEPS which has been very poor at sniffing these cooler stretches since May has begun. After that I would still remain cautious at bringing in the toastier heat. I don't know how the OP ECMWF manages a 99F with predicted 570s heights, but I am not drinking out of that punch bowl. The ensembles are saying western Canada gets so baked that the northwest flow does not matter. Granted once we get past Jun 8th or so, I will half bite, but I am not all in. The ensembles for week two otherwise have a below normal (well not you GEPS, because you are the GEPS) 500mb zonal flow across the Conus. There are still hints of ridging across western Canada, so we will keep some semblance of hope alive with that. Otherwise, a more unstable lapse rate look might at least bring some precipitation chances even if it may be hit/miss thunder. Tropics: Favorable Divergence Aloft for now remains before the MJO is suppose to leave the building. Hence the GufMex development is consistent. I don't know if I have ever seen a MVentrice outlook look this dormant again. GEFS: (ends 0.5 day sooner) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 3rd, (same duration) below normal anomalies later Jun 3rd into Jun 10th, above normal anomalies later Jun 10th into Jun 14th, near normal anomalies Jun 15th (end of run). GEPS: (ends 3 days sooner) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 3rd (was once Jun 8th), (cooler, 4 days longer) below normal anomalies later Jun 3rd into Jun 8th, above normal anomalies later Jun 8th thru Jun 15th (end of run). Next torch max 6/10. EPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 3rd, (much longer again) below normal anomalies later Jun 3rd into Jun 8th, above normal anomalies later Jun 8th into Jun 13th, near normal anomalies Jun 14th (end of run). Next torch max 6/10. NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jun 8th thru Jun 15th. Moderate confidence of above normal temperatures. Above normal confidence increasing. Teleconnections: GEFS Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 12.5; PNA Day 14; AO Day 11.5 Recent Verification Tendency: More Positive NAO & AO, More Negative PNA GEFS: +EPO thru 6/2 (2 days more); neg 6/3-6/15 (-3SD 6/4) -PNA thru 5/31 (same); pos 6/1-6/12 (+5SD 6/8); neg 6/13-6/15 -NAO (same) GEPS: +EPO thru 6/2 (2 days more); neg 6/3-6/7; (new) pos 6/8-6/11; neg 6/12-6/15 -PNA thru 6/1 (day more); pos 6/2-6/11 (+5SD 6/7); neg 6/12-6/15 -NAO (same) EPS: +EPO thru 6/2 (day more); neg 6/3-6/8; (new) pos 6/9-6/10; neg 6/11-6/14 -PNA thru 5/31 (same); pos 6/1-6/14 (+4.25SD 6/7) -NAO (same) WPO: Positive thru 6/10 or 6/11 MJO: (Vel Potential & Convection) Phases 8 & 1 GEFS: Phase 8 to Phase 3/4 Border. EPS: Phase 8 into COD to Phase 4 COD. GEPS: Phase 8 to Phases 1 & 2 COD. (All Runs ends 6/14) MVentrice: Weak Phase 1/2 border to I got nothing. Strat: NASA Wave 1: 10th -> 50th -> 1st -> 30th Percentile Wave 2: 30th -> 99th -> 1st -> 99th Percentile FU Berlin, back for next winter? SPV: Euro (thru day 10): See Ya Next Winter. GFS (thru day 15): See Ya Next Winter. SPV NASA 10 days: See Ya Next Winter. Ensembles 15 days: See Ya Next Winter. NAM: Trop cool shot super can kick to 6/12 **************** June Centered ******************* 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 New Cansips for June looks a lot like that EPS map. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023060100&fh=0 If want another crummy winter, don't look at the Cansip Dec-March forecast (fwiw, this is either the 3rd or 4th Cansip forecast in a row for a great Nino winter.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: New Cansips for June looks a lot like that EPS map. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023060100&fh=0 If want another crummy winter, don't look at the Cansip Dec-March forecast (fwiw, this is either the 3rd or 4th Cansip forecast in a row for a great Nino winter.) The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, ErieWX said: The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 51 minutes ago, ErieWX said: The CFS has a classic super Nino raging pac jet and a torch winter for the East 🔥 🔥 🔥 It always does and doesn't adjust until the end of the preceeding forecast month. It really is useless. It has advertised the Cansip winter pattern a couple of times in the past few months, but it always reverts back to torch worldwide for anything more than a 1 month forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted June 1 Report Share Posted June 1 30 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Ninos are weird. A weak to moderate nino means you can get either split flow regime or a huge PNA ridge right on top of the west coast with the Aleutian low like we had in 14-15. A very strong Nino suppresses that ridge with a raging pac jet and floods North America with warm air. If you’re lucky though you can get that to phase. 2016 had that super Nino and a huge blizzard in PHL in an otherwise torch winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 2 Report Share Posted June 2 10 hours ago, susqushawn said: Wait. Let me get this right. Last year we had a super raging Pac jet in a La Nina. This year we'll have a super raging Pac jet in an El Nino. We don't do winter well. Winter sucks…. I’m starting to really enjoy warm weather. The past few weeks have been beautiful. I’m don’t with 40’s/rain for 4 months 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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