Rainshadow Posted May 21 Report Share Posted May 21 Looking at this from la la land which is just as a useful place as la la winter storms, the weekend looked okay, even warm. with general zonal flow. Well, closer in and to the start of skill time, this has gone to heck in a hand basket. Different interactions with a northern stream closed low and the southeastern trof has made for zero run to run continuity. In a catch-22 in which rain would be useful, is it a day, is it two? Is the GFS on something as Dr. Don't Worry? Time will tell this week. It hardly seems like the unofficial start of summer weekend goes off smoothly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 21 Author Report Share Posted May 21 The last two Memorial Day weekends, 2021 was a classic. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted May 21 Report Share Posted May 21 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: The last two Memorial Day weekends, 2021 was a classic. The high of 53 on 5/30 was 6 degrees cooler than the previous record low max for the date. That is also the 3rd coolest max temp that late in the season behind: 49 degrees - 6/2/1907 52 degrees - 6/6/1894 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted May 21 Report Share Posted May 21 Both the GFS and Euro have this retrograding upper-level low for later this week. Besides causing model havoc it also makes it more likely we'll see below-average temps depending on the evolution. At least it will be better than 53...hopefully lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 21 Author Report Share Posted May 21 5 hours ago, ACwx said: Both the GFS and Euro have this retrograding upper-level low for later this week. Besides causing model havoc it also makes it more likely we'll see below-average temps depending on the evolution. At least it will be better than 53...hopefully lol The best part about today’s 12z Euro it is a week away, not a day away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talonsmith Posted May 21 Report Share Posted May 21 Saw Tom's tweet about the nice weather for the week and saw his ominous note about the weekend storm. Cold marine mist sunday/monday in the 50's. Book it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 22 Author Report Share Posted May 22 22 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Looking at this from la la land which is just as a useful place as la la winter storms, the weekend looked okay, even warm. with general zonal flow. Well, closer in and to the start of skill time, this has gone to heck in a hand basket. Different interactions with a northern stream closed low and the southeastern trof has made for zero run to run continuity. In a catch-22 in which rain would be useful, is it a day, is it two? Is the GFS on something as Dr. Don't Worry? Time will tell this week. It hardly seems like the unofficial start of summer weekend goes off smoothly. 00z run this morning was better than 12z yesterday with less northern stream closed low involvement and more of a Rex Block configuration. Of course, 12 hours later the runs will be very different again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmo.tennisman Posted May 22 Report Share Posted May 22 Lol I hope Delmarva beaches good on Memorial Day weekend. Would hate to have to cancel plans for that lol. Problem is have to cancel by end of tomorrow to not have to pay cancellation fee. Sweatshirts may need anyways at times. Went to Bethany last year a few weeks prior to Memorial Day (around May 13/14/15 timeframe in 2022), and the weather was a total disaster of rain. That's when the erosion stuff started at the Delmarva beaches. Memorial Day weather's hit or miss that's for certain. Also, I apologize if I'm posting on the wrong thread. Feel free to move to another thread if need be haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 22 Author Report Share Posted May 22 2 hours ago, andrewmo.tennisman said: Lol I hope Delmarva beaches good on Memorial Day weekend. Would hate to have to cancel plans for that lol. Problem is have to cancel by end of tomorrow to not have to pay cancellation fee. Sweatshirts may need anyways at times. Went to Bethany last year a few weeks prior to Memorial Day (around May 13/14/15 timeframe in 2022), and the weather was a total disaster of rain. That's when the erosion stuff started at the Delmarva beaches. Memorial Day weather's hit or miss that's for certain. Also, I apologize if I'm posting on the wrong thread. Feel free to move to another thread if need be haha. You posted in right spot. It looks better today than yesterday. Unfortunately I don’t think the jury is going to reach a decision by tomorrow. Being south of PHL adds more uncertainty into the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 23 Author Report Share Posted May 23 The Canadian is still close, but last night’s model runs do not have interaction again between northern stream closed low and one over the SE Conus. The Euro’s southern closed low becomes a disassembled mess. So for now only the GFS (did not look at UK) has rain chances on Sunday and Monday, the rest Monday. Overall better than they were with that dreadful 12z run from Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmo.tennisman Posted May 23 Report Share Posted May 23 15 hours ago, Rainshadow said: You posted in right spot. It looks better today than yesterday. Unfortunately I don’t think the jury is going to reach a decision by tomorrow. Being south of PHL adds more uncertainty into the equation. Thanks. We decided to cancel it, we got our full money back since did it before tonight. I typically would say we still go, but just seeing or hearing the two words "stalled front" is the ultimate red flag regardless of anything else I see. Hersheypark or Gettysburg look like better weather for Friday anyways. We're going to Bethany in August, from past history, August weather at the beaches seems consistently better even with any storm severe or not that comes through. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23 Report Share Posted May 23 @Rainshadow let’s say we miss on the rain for memorial weekend, pattern looks wet to start June? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 23 Author Report Share Posted May 23 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: @Rainshadow let’s say we miss on the rain for memorial weekend, pattern looks wet to start June? I'll take a deeper look tomorrow morning. We just came back from the Maryland Eastern Shore. From what little I saw today, it didn't look that great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 It's like living in coastal southern California Today Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 15 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Memorial Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 2 minutes ago, Parsley said: It's like living in coastal southern California Today Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 15 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Memorial Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. We've got the smoke also. However 06 gfs keeps the weekend uncertain. Overall weekend looks a little drearier on modeling overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 24 Author Report Share Posted May 24 Now that the models have gone the what northern stream closed low route, places north like Tomboland and the Catskills are looking better for a spectacular weekend. Down here as far as pcpn goes (00z runs) Delmarva still gets in the mix for either Sunday (GFS) or Monday (Euro). Canadian and UKMET look totally suppressed. ICON wants to give the GFS a run for its wet money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 The ridge trends have been stronger and well positioned, geps below as an example. Dry air in my opinion should win this battle from Philly north. If the Euro is correct, which has the closed ridge overtop us, it will struggle to rain at VA Beach. I'll split the difference and say @Debeaches sees some drops, @ACwx gets scraped, and @Parsley falls asleep on his patio every night. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 24 Report Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: The ridge trends have been stronger and well positioned, geps below as an example. Dry air in my opinion should win this battle from Philly north. If the Euro is correct, which has the closed ridge overtop us, it will struggle to rain at VA Beach. I'll split the difference and say @Debeaches sees some drops, @ACwx gets scraped, and @Parsley falls asleep on his patio every night. Yea, you aren’t blasting rain into your area with that h5 look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 25 Author Report Share Posted May 25 While the 00z surface low position has not changed much, at 8 pm Sunday the Rex Ridge protection is not as strong as it was on the 12z run. As a result all models (except a tickle by the Euro) bring rain into Delmarva on Sunday and/or Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 26 Report Share Posted May 26 Last nights euro - another glad its not January storm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 26 Author Report Share Posted May 26 In terms of rain, Sunday is looking more salvageable. even in our part of Delmarva. If the precip is going to leak north to PHL's latitude, Memorial Day itself remains the day. Nothing new about the general 500mb pattern not locking in until day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 26 Report Share Posted May 26 5 hours ago, Rainshadow said: In terms of rain, Sunday is looking more salvageable. even in our part of Delmarva. If the precip is going to leak north to PHL's latitude, Memorial Day itself remains the day. Nothing new about the general 500mb pattern not locking in until day 5. Should include for beach locales, that northeast wind coming around the low to the south probably going to keep it pretty chilly, maybe some fog too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 27 Author Report Share Posted May 27 19 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Should include for beach locales, that northeast wind coming around the low to the south probably going to keep it pretty chilly, maybe some fog too? Yeah not my ideal beach days going forward into Memorial Day. Water is still cold, onshore flow, getting windier, especially south of ACY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 27 Report Share Posted May 27 Nice weekend for the Pocono Airshow with the Blue Angels. https://www.poconoraceway.com/airshow-main-page.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_nino Posted May 27 Report Share Posted May 27 Is it me or has that low off of South Carolina developed an eye? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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