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Winter Storm Threats v5.0 (Day 5 & Beyond)


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6 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

They look pretty sad already, like this winter

Ashamed for the lousy winter I figure.

It's warm enough for them to bloom but still a little chilly for them apparently.  The ones in the direct sun looked healthier.

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9 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Too progressive for a bombing low in the right position

Pros

- Trough off west coast digging, if that can close off it would help pna ridge spike more and potentially delay the next energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Nw

- pna ridge

- favorable storm track

Cons

- primary too far NW, need it to die quickly

- 50/50 departure, allowing ridging to poke up ahead of storm (theme much of winter), airmass killer

- displaced HP as a result of point above, inadequate confluence, marginal airmass

We aren't far from a better solution.  More wave amplitude may enable a cleaner phase and quicker strengthening.  Without that it'll be hard to overcome the poor thermals.  Obviously, if the 50/50 can reverse course that would further increase our odds

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_fh120_trend.gif.5c462009bd5703a2add7dc2f9837cd38.gif

 

 

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13 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Pros

- Trough off west coast digging, if that can close off it would help pna ridge spike more and potentially delay the next energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Nw

- pna ridge

- favorable storm track

Cons

- primary too far NW, need it to die quickly

- 50/50 departure, allowing ridging to poke up ahead of storm (theme much of winter), airmass killer

- displaced HP as a result of point above, inadequate confluence, marginal airmass

We aren't far from a better solution.  More wave amplitude may enable a cleaner phase and quicker strengthening.  Without that it'll be hard to overcome the poor thermals.  Obviously, if the 50/50 can reverse course that would further increase our odds

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_fh120_trend.gif.5c462009bd5703a2add7dc2f9837cd38.gif

 

 

Yes its close, have the players: 50/50, southern + northern stream systems. We don't have much leeway though with marginal air mass.

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

20 ways for PHL to fail, gefs edition.

image.png.8b9959e95b63c767c7cf33a6c39d2bab.png

I am going to echo HM from yesterday. Don’t look at rain/snow and snow maps this far out 

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Winter Storm Threats v5.0 (Day 5 & Beyond)
  • Rainshadow pinned this topic

I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 
 

6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city

NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away

I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA 

 

31CD62FF-15AA-4540-9C68-55BC2ED52A24.png

49BE7AD4-E13E-4C24-ACA0-B88F6CCB97B0.png

1B0C6347-C333-45F5-B166-C2D7C3A7C0B6.png

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 
 

6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city

NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away

I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA 

 

31CD62FF-15AA-4540-9C68-55BC2ED52A24.png

49BE7AD4-E13E-4C24-ACA0-B88F6CCB97B0.png

1B0C6347-C333-45F5-B166-C2D7C3A7C0B6.png

It’s also 144 hours away. 

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 
 

6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city

NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away

I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA 

 

31CD62FF-15AA-4540-9C68-55BC2ED52A24.png

49BE7AD4-E13E-4C24-ACA0-B88F6CCB97B0.png

1B0C6347-C333-45F5-B166-C2D7C3A7C0B6.png

Forget the Control Heisey...what's the 6z mean if you have it?

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

It looks better than 00z because the southern vort is farther E, there are a few members that have it snowing near the city

 

9DED55FD-0FE1-4689-8050-82E505E7C041.png

D9BF00AD-58A5-4ECD-BE24-F2AD50943278.png

Hopefully a trend. Plenty of time to go one way or the other.

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8 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Hopefully a trend. Plenty of time to go one way or the other.

Here is Will over American explaining basically what I was stating a lot more clearer

“I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later.”

The southern leading vort did exactly that in that crazy 00z run we had the other night. 

I suppose we another 2-3 more days where large scale changes can still happen…see what happens.

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Here is Will over American explaining basically what I was stating a lot more clearer

“I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later.”

The southern leading vort did exactly that in that crazy 00z run we had the other night. 

I suppose we another 2-3 more days where large scale changes can still happen…see what happens.

Who needs it captured? We can have a simple 3-6” 4-8” deal without having the crazy euro solution from the other night which we all knew wasn’t going to happen. I know you want a big dog with feet and feet of snow but many of us are happy with a small little puppy too 

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11 minutes ago, Will said:

Who needs it captured? We can have a simple 3-6” 4-8” deal without having the crazy euro solution from the other night which we all knew wasn’t going to happen. I know you want a big dog with feet and feet of snow but many of us are happy with a small little puppy too 

Yea I feel ya, gfs idea of a flat southern wave could maybe get us in the action

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