Mitchnick Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 My hope is to get this d@mn thing covered with snow and taught a lesson! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 15 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: My hope is to get this d@mn thing covered with snow and taught a lesson! They look pretty sad already, like this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 6 minutes ago, susqushawn said: They look pretty sad already, like this winter Ashamed for the lousy winter I figure. It's warm enough for them to bloom but still a little chilly for them apparently. The ones in the direct sun looked healthier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 20 ways for PHL to fail, gefs edition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 16 minutes ago, susqushawn said: 20 ways for PHL to fail, gefs edition. Too progressive for a bombing low in the right position Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 9 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Too progressive for a bombing low in the right position Pros - Trough off west coast digging, if that can close off it would help pna ridge spike more and potentially delay the next energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Nw - pna ridge - favorable storm track Cons - primary too far NW, need it to die quickly - 50/50 departure, allowing ridging to poke up ahead of storm (theme much of winter), airmass killer - displaced HP as a result of point above, inadequate confluence, marginal airmass We aren't far from a better solution. More wave amplitude may enable a cleaner phase and quicker strengthening. Without that it'll be hard to overcome the poor thermals. Obviously, if the 50/50 can reverse course that would further increase our odds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 13 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Pros - Trough off west coast digging, if that can close off it would help pna ridge spike more and potentially delay the next energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Nw - pna ridge - favorable storm track Cons - primary too far NW, need it to die quickly - 50/50 departure, allowing ridging to poke up ahead of storm (theme much of winter), airmass killer - displaced HP as a result of point above, inadequate confluence, marginal airmass We aren't far from a better solution. More wave amplitude may enable a cleaner phase and quicker strengthening. Without that it'll be hard to overcome the poor thermals. Obviously, if the 50/50 can reverse course that would further increase our odds Yes its close, have the players: 50/50, southern + northern stream systems. We don't have much leeway though with marginal air mass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 6z Gefs are lousy for both 1 & 2 threats...toss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: 20 ways for PHL to fail, gefs edition. I am going to echo HM from yesterday. Don’t look at rain/snow and snow maps this far out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: My hope is to get this d@mn thing covered with snow and taught a lesson! looks like that thing cause you some rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: looks like that thing cause you some rain Someone needs to ban this fool!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA It’s also 144 hours away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I don’t see a path to victory with the N/S ULL being in the lakes and the late STJ vort. 6z control for example, slp ticked E with the farther E STJ vort, but you still have the big h5 low W of us, unless they somehow phased east of us were torched at the BL, it’s like 37-38 degrees here in the city NW burbs up through poconos def have a shot at some snow. I’d bet a large sum of money we don’t see any accumulation in the city unless maybe the main ULL phases far enough S to give us some snow showers/squalls as it pulls away I’d want to the core of the h5 low to be near West VA/ N VA Forget the Control Heisey...what's the 6z mean if you have it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 Just now, Mitchnick said: Forget the Control Heisey...what's the 6z mean if you have it? It looks better than 00z because the southern vort is farther E, there are a few members that have it snowing near the city 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: It looks better than 00z because the southern vort is farther E, there are a few members that have it snowing near the city Hopefully a trend. Plenty of time to go one way or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 8 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Hopefully a trend. Plenty of time to go one way or the other. Here is Will over American explaining basically what I was stating a lot more clearer “I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later.” The southern leading vort did exactly that in that crazy 00z run we had the other night. I suppose we another 2-3 more days where large scale changes can still happen…see what happens. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Here is Will over American explaining basically what I was stating a lot more clearer “I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later.” The southern leading vort did exactly that in that crazy 00z run we had the other night. I suppose we another 2-3 more days where large scale changes can still happen…see what happens. Who needs it captured? We can have a simple 3-6” 4-8” deal without having the crazy euro solution from the other night which we all knew wasn’t going to happen. I know you want a big dog with feet and feet of snow but many of us are happy with a small little puppy too 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 From Don Sutherland (He posted this yesterday) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 11 minutes ago, Will said: Who needs it captured? We can have a simple 3-6” 4-8” deal without having the crazy euro solution from the other night which we all knew wasn’t going to happen. I know you want a big dog with feet and feet of snow but many of us are happy with a small little puppy too Yea I feel ya, gfs idea of a flat southern wave could maybe get us in the action 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: From Don Sutherland (He posted this yesterday) See, you can be both optimistic and realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 6 minutes ago, FreshPrince said: See, you can be both optimistic and realistic. Yeah, I don't know why Tony posted it either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 Pretty boring gfs and cmc runs. See what 18th brings on them… icon is more euro like but still brings no snow close to Philly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 cmc has a stronger STJ vort so it is able to snow in the NW, nothing for city though… Does this pattern look familiar to anyone, lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Yeah, I don't know why Tony posted it either. I don't know either. We now return you to regularly scheduled broadcast joined already in progress. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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